027
FXUS64 KSHV 300620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Thursday night
   as heat indices will climb each afternoon from 105 to 109
   degrees areawide.

 - Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by
   Thursday afternoon as a cool front backdoors into the region.
   The highest rain chances will be along and east of the
   Interstate 49 corridor.

 - Seasonable temps and rain chances return once again this
   weekend, with the highest precipitation probabilities along and
   south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The weakening of the eastern periphery of a large upper ridge,
that brought us hot and dry weather over the past several days,
allowed a weak cool front to backdoor into the Lower Mississippi
Valley, as a deep trough has settled across the eastern CONUS.
Although the front didn`t quite get into our forecast area,
showers and thunderstorms that developed along the front were
able to move into portions of our SW Arkansas zones and the
northern half of McCurtain County, OK. This convection has finally
diminished and conditions should remain quiet over the next
several hours. However, as we move through the overnight period,
the front will continue backdoor into our forecast zones. Progs
suggest the southwestward movement of the front will come to a
halt somewhere near a line from Southeast Oklahoma to near
Texarkana to around the I-20 corridor of North Louisiana Thursday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
again over the area, with the best chances during the afternoon across
McCurtain County Oklahoma, all of SW Arkansas, and along and east
of the Interstate 49 corridor of our Louisiana parishes. Although
the synoptic set-up isn`t great for severe weather, an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging wind gusts can`t be
ruled out, along with some locally heavy rain. Hot and humid
conditions will remain in place ahead of the expected rainfall,
so the current Heat Advisory has been extended until 8 PM Thursday
evening.

By Friday, the front will retreat back to the northeast, as the
aforementioned ridge will try to re-establish itself over the
region. This will bring a return of hot and mostly dry conditions
areawide, and the possibility of another areawide heat advisory.
But, this pattern will be short-lived, as the center of the ridge
will shift westward. With the deep trough remaining across the
eastern CONUS, the upper pattern over the region will become more
northwesterly. Models continue to suggest the northwesterly flow
will drive another weak cool front into the region over the
upcoming weekend, with the front eventually stalling south of the
I-20 corridor on Sunday. Rain chances are expected to return with
this front, with the best chances each day along and south of the
Interstate 20 corridor. The front is expected to wash out by early
next week, with upper ridging returning across the region. This
would bring a return in hot and dry conditions for the first half
of next week. However, long-term progs are trying to hint at some
afternoon rain chances in our Eastern Louisiana zones next
Tuesday and Wednesday. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For the 06z TAF cycle, precipitation has just about dissipated late
this evening across our airspace. The exception to this is north of
the I-30 Corridor but it`s well north of the TXK terminal and should
continue dissipating as we get closer to midnight. Otherwise we are
left with lots of high mid and high cloud cover across our airspace
and that will continue through the next 24 hours. Continued the
trend of VCTS mention tied to daytime heating once again across all
terminals with the exception of the TYR and LFK terminals. A
backdoor cold front remains stalled out across our region near an
Idabel to Texarkana to Natchez line this late hour Wed Evening and
it appears to stay there through this TAF period as well. It`s near
and in the wake of this boundary where isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible in the 3pm to 10pm timeframe on
Thursday.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Although spotter activation is not expected over the next 24
hours, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out,
as scattered showers and thunderstorms backdoor in with a cool
front. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  99  79  96 /  20   0  40  30
MLU  76  97  78  96 /  20  30  40  30
DEQ  73  98  75  93 /  20   0  10  10
TXK  77  97  79  97 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  75  96  77  94 /  20  10  20  20
TYR  78 100  78  97 /   0   0  30  20
GGG  78  99  77  96 /   0   0  30  30
LFK  76  97  77  95 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13