452
FXUS64 KSHV 172326
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Summer is finally about to take a vacation after our first
   widespread Fall Severe Weather threat in our Four-State area.

 - Warm overnight temperatures will not need much sunshine to get
   our highs back to well above average, feeding Thunderstorms
   with peak heating ahead of a decent cold front early Sunday.

 - A little roller coastering of temperatures will accompany
   several cold fronts as the Westerlies open for business.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Summer-like heat is getting us all back to above averages for mid
October as southerly winds usher in rich Gulf of America
moisture off the still warm waters. Dew points in E TX are
already in the mid to upper 60s, while there are still some upper
50s east of I-49. This will make for a warm night with a new
record possible here in the SHV by one degree if the forecast is
right. The 69 was recorded "back to the future" in 1985. Other
sites may hang on, but the warm start will mean a warm afternoon
even with little sunshine.

The models are all helpful, just not all singing the exact same
song in concert so to speak. A prefrontal trough is expected to
take a grab at some of this rich moisture from late morning to mid
afternoon, loosely followed closely by new convective activity
ahead on our late evening/overnight cold front. SW winds will be
a little gusty added to the warmth by advection and potentially a
bust on highs if compressional heating makes a final appearance in
this warm and dry pattern. So, that will only add more fuel to
the machine as the brisk short wave modeled well by most progs
over OK into AR mid to late day.

We are looking with NBM to see NW winds arriving in our I-30
corridor and points north by mid evening and out of our Parish by
daybreak Sunday. So the main show will likely be well ahead of
that shift and moving eastward slowly as storms race to the NE
ahead of the coming pressure waves. The SPC maintains nearly all
of our area in their Slight Risk category, so hopefully we stay
just there for this first bona fide Fall severe weather threat.
Damaging winds and hail initially will be possible in the morning.
That threat will expand to include a tornado potential with the
warm regime and QLCS on the secondary line. So please get an
update when ever possible as the HRRR will use what is sees
occurring.

The likelihood of a watch will unfold in the afternoon
and linger into the early evening at least. Sunset will not be
enough to loose much intensity as the short wave even looks a tad
negative over NE OK and NW AR at 19/00Z, buried in the long wave
trough moving over the entire MS River Valley on Saturday. Weekend
warriors please consider bringing a weather radio with fresh
(pre "time change" batteries) which may do better than a distant
cell tower for those on a large lake for instance. So having a
couple of ways to receive watch and warning information will be
crucial to those in the great outdoors is the topic of the day.
As always, "If Thunder roars, go indoors" always applies.

Highs will range in the 80s at least, and again some 90 degree
are forecasted east of I-49. Compressional heating may bring more,
but the winds will bring balance to this force which likes to
time in ahead of a good cold front. Some of the rainfall may
become heavy or repeated rounds could employ the Marginal Risk ERO
the WPC continues now for even more of our area, south of I-20.
The area of high pressure will be a mover with 1023-1028mb sfc
high pinching off of the front range. The NAM is the strongest,
but all the models register much cooler 70s for highs on Sunday.
Lows not too chilly as the wind and clearing clouds will hamper
cooling. However, Monday will start off chilly for a change with
lows in the low to upper 40s and few if any 50s.

Lots of sunshine and shifting winds back to the SE at the rising
of the sun to start the new week. Records are super safe in the
20s set back in 1880, but it will sure be a light jacket day.
Averages are about 10 degrees warmer on lows, but highs will
recover in wind and sun with low to mid 80s right back in the
game. The next cold front looks drier now for Tuesday`s timeframe
with just some showers perhaps in E TX as the secondary 1022mb
high settles into Arkansas fresh out of Canada.

So we will roller coaster down again for midweek and then the
third frontal boundary is more maritime than continental in
natural. This cooler air has been under the soon to be mobile cut
off low from the west coast presence over the last week or few,
which is going to kick in the door none the less on the Westerlies
in action of late. So hoping for lots of rain, but not flooding
as the dry ground will run much down the drain. Best case for all
will be an early start on the prefrontal, leaving less potential
moisture and heat ahead of the cold front proper. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the 18/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
overnight, as this afternoon`s BKN/SCT cloud decks persist,
reinforced by moisture on southerly winds which look to remain
elevated at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts through the night.
CIGs look to drop to MVFR towards daybreak, with KLFK reaching
IFR. That being said, winds look to prevent fog from developing to
any impactful degree. Tomorrow will see CIGs barely recover before
storms begin, with winds becoming gusty ahead of the main line.
Storm impacts are expected to begin in the early afternoon north
and west, trending east into the late afternoon and evening hours.
Strong to severe thunderstorm impacts including damaging wind
gusts are possible with this system across area airspace.
Prevailing winds will become southwesterly then variable by the
end of this forecast period, heralding the shift which the frontal
passage will bring.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Spotter activation is not expected today and through the
overnight hours, but that changes for Saturday by around noon
through mid evening, ahead of a decent cold front and our first
widespread Fall Severe Weather threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  61  75 /  10  70  70   0
MLU  64  90  63  75 /   0  40  90  10
DEQ  65  82  50  71 /  10  80  40   0
TXK  70  87  55  74 /  10  80  60   0
ELD  65  86  55  72 /   0  70  80   0
TYR  69  85  57  75 /  10  60  50   0
GGG  67  86  57  75 /  10  70  60   0
LFK  67  88  62  79 /   0  70  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26