906
FXUS64 KSHV 020032
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
632 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Warmer, more humid and mostly dry conditions will prevail
   through tomorrow, from lows in the 50s and 60s to highs in the
   lower 80s.

 - A cold front will bring showers and storms from the northwest
   before dawn Tuesday, spreading south through the day. Damaging
   wind gusts and flash flooding will be possible.

 - Behind the front, more seasonable temperatures will prevail
   through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, with
   highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Upper level ridging is building over the Four State Region from west
to east, helping to put the sun in this Sunday. As skies continue to
clear, temperatures will soar back into the lower 80s this
afternoon. A lingering moisture axis continues to fire up some
remnant showers across central to northeast Louisiana, with
guidance suggesting this band may struggle to fully depart through
the day today. Elsewhere, dry and partly cloudy conditions will
prevail. With low to mid level moisture returns, clouds will fill
in overnight while temperatures drop into the middle to upper 50s
north and lower 60s south.

Today`s ridge axis will be swept cleanly out of the region tomorrow
by the approach of the advertised deepening longwave trough
amplifying southwards over the Rockies and ejecting east over the
Front Range into the Plains by tomorrow evening. Southwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow will keep temperatures warm
despite mostly cloudy skies, with another afternoon of upper 70s
to lower 80s areawide. As with today, a few spotty showers across
our southeasternmost zones cannot be ruled out, with increasingly
humid but dry conditions elsewhere.

The timing of Monday into Tuesday`s showers and storms follows the
slower progression hinted at in recent days, with the earliest lower
chances of rain arriving Monday evening in our far northwest. PoPs
indicate high confidence in the main line pushing into the ArkLaTex
from the northwest between midnight and daybreak Tuesday, spreading
through the middle of the region after dawn and our southeastern
zones into the afternoon and early evening, with rainfall looking to
come to an end overnight into Wednesday morning. With Tuesday`s
showers and storms, a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) will be present,
with the primary threat being in the form of damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash
flooding will be possible, impacting urban areas, small streams and
areas of poor drainage.

Behind the cold front responsible for Tuesday`s storms, drier and
noticeably cooler conditions will prevail for the remainder of
the week, as highs climb only into the 70s, while lows fall into
the 40s. A weaker secondary trough passing just to our north
Thursday is looking like less of a rainmaker in recent guidance,
but will help to reinforce our more seasonable or slightly below-
average temperatures through to the end of this extended forecast
period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For the 02/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are in place to begin
the period with a fair amount of cumulus and cirrus across our
airspace. Given the moisture profile, expect another round of
MVFR/IFR cigs later in the overnight through the early morning
hours on Monday. Some intermittent LIFR cigs can`t be ruled out
along with patchy fog once again, but confidence is lower on the
fog development given that clouds continue to increase and light
E/SE winds should persist. Otherwise, gradual improvement in cigs
will lead to returning VFR conditions by late morning into midday
on Monday with SE winds increasing between 8-14 kts along with
higher gusts possible across our western terminals in East Texas
as well as KSHV/KTXK during the afternoon hours.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  67  76 /  10  10  50 100
MLU  65  81  68  81 /  20  20  10 100
DEQ  57  81  61  76 /   0  20  90  80
TXK  61  80  65  75 /   0  20  70  90
ELD  61  81  64  77 /  20  10  50 100
TYR  64  83  66  75 /   0  10  70  80
GGG  61  82  64  76 /   0  10  60  90
LFK  63  83  67  78 /   0  10  40 100

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19