826
FXUS64 KSHV 011135
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
635 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Nice late summer season day on tap for our Labor Day holiday
   with a few more lower 90s in the ArkLaTex, but still a range of
   80s north of I-30.

 - The short work/school week will continue to warm afternoon
   temps with afternoon sunshine, but we will be done with most
   rain chances for a few days behind a cool front, so our lows
   will be cooling as we finally see stars during the overnights.

 - The next chance for widespread rainfall will remain in flux as
   the weekend cool front now looks to hold up across our extreme
   northern Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

We had quite a range of temps for our Sunday with still more rain
and clouds over northeast and deep east Texas, but where rain did
not fall we saw partly sunny skies and mid to upper 80s north and
some low 90s. Our winds were SE by late day with a shift back to
E/NE for Labor Day. We have a weak cool front on approach for
Tuesday with NW winds on tap. These NW winds on the surface will
dry out the air a bit with less humidity and little to no rain for
a few days through mid to late week.

The bulk of cooler temps for us will be found trending down each
morning this week with clear to fair skies each night through mid
to late week. By that same token, fewer clouds and will see a bit
of a warming trend for the afternoon highs, which will be in upper
80s and lower to middle 90s. However, with that initial NW wind
on Tuesday will linger through Thursday, allowing for less
humidity which will keep us out of the excessive heat range
through the week ahead. Winds will back to SW for Friday, our
warmest to hottest day expected.

The next chance for widespread rainfall will come late Friday
night and overnight as the front draws near. At this time, the
models are more content to keep the cooler and drier air over the
OH River Valley early in the weekend. So being on the edge of this
boundary will allow for better rain chances again, but the really
wet NW flow will simply be more of a zonal W flow aloft running
under the boundary.

There will be some weak areas of low pressure running along the
front, will allow for some daytime and night time convective
activity as we push through the weekend. If we can get enough
convection to assist, the cool front may drop south of I-20 into
more of NE TX and LA by Sunday. So this may be our next concern
for some slow moving heavy rainfall, but through the short work
week we will be free of any such risks from the WPC. And our QPF
outlook for next weekend is looking quite manageable at this time
with an inch or two at most. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Outside of light showers north of KTXK this morning, much of the
airspace continues to maintain VFR while handling a mix of
BKN/OVC CIGS between 7-9kft, with little in the way of any VSBY
reductions. Through the afternoon, much of the airspace should see
a mix of SCT/BKN around 5-7kft, with some lingering mid and high
cloud. Hi-res continues to suggest the return of VCSH/VCTS closer
to and just after 18z. Given the isolated convective regime,
direct terminal impacts should be minimal. What does materialize
convectively should dissipate after 00z, with clouds continuing
overnight. Terminal winds through the period will hold an E/SE
appearance, generally around 5kt.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time throughout our
long Holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  92  69  90  68 /  10  20  50  20
DEQ  84  64  84  63 /  20  20  30  10
TXK  88  67  87  66 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  89  65  88  65 /  10  20  40  10
TYR  87  70  87  68 /  30  10  20   0
GGG  89  69  89  67 /  30  20  20  10
LFK  91  70  91  69 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53