848
FXUS64 KSHV 120628
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
128 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Brief respite from heat headlines has ended as the upper ridge
   will gradually expand back across the region throughout this
   weekend, prompting an areawide heat advisory today.

 - Remnant sfc trough will linger over the region today along the
   eastern periphery of the ridge axis, serving as a trigger for
   isolated convection through this afternoon.

 - Intense heat will persist throughout much of next week before a
   possible pattern shift late next weekend, finally signaling the
   heat relief just time for the arrival of fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The overarching weather theme through this weekend and especially
next week is the building heat and humidity, prompting the return
of heat advisory headlines today and likely for several more days.
Although not very promising, we will at least maintain a low-end
chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the region for
today. This will occur as a remnant surface trough interacts with
abundant LL moisture as noted by the lower to mid 70s dew points.

Additional support for convection may come from upstream forcing
as a disturbance rounds the top of the ridge axis over the Great
Plains, yielding a low-end risk for a few strong to severe storms
across our northernmost zones by later this afternoon through the
evening hours as highlighted in the SPC Day 1 convective outlook.
Elsewhere, convection will generally be much more isolated with
brief pop-up variety showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm
throughout peak heating hours before dissipating around sunset.

As we move in Sunday and much of next week, rain chances will be
slim to none as the center of the ridge axis slowly migrates east
across our region. The resulting increase in subsidence will push
daily high temperatures back into the upper 90s for most areas and
even some isolated lower triple-digits will certainly be possible.
It probably goes without saying that additional heat advisories
are likely to continue through at least the middle of next week.

Medium-range guidance does continue to provide some hope for a
pattern change, although there remains plenty of ambiguity on
just how this evolves by late next week into next weekend. For
now, NBM guidance is trending slightly lower with temperatures by
the end of next week while keeping rain chances very low to near
nil. Perhaps, the much anticipated start of the fall season will
bear fruit with some welcome changes just beyond this forecast
period.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the 12/06z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing a few
lingering light showers across southern Arkansas, but with current
trends, I have kept any mention out of any prevailing groups at this
time. Lower ceilings are expected to develop across much of the area
around 12/09z, which could bring some brief MVFR conditions for
KLFK, KTXK, and KELD towards morning. Another round of convection is
expected for much of the region on Saturday afternoon and evening.
There remains low confidence that any given location will see a
direct impact, so I have maintained mention of VCTS for most of our
sites. Expect light winds throughout this TAF period, with the
exception of any gusty and erratic winds with any thunderstorms
during Saturday afternoon.

/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected, but a few strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and
Southwest Arkansas later this afternoon into the evening hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
MLU  98  75  98  75 /  20   0  20   0
DEQ  97  70  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  98  75  98  75 /  30   0  10   0
ELD  98  73  99  73 /  40  10  10   0
TYR  99  76  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
GGG 100  75  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  95  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33