921
FXUS64 KSHV 181625
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Temperatures nearing or exceeding triple digits will continue
   through this week, maintaining an elevated risk for heat-
   related illnesses.

 - Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from
   flash drought will support an increased fire weather threat.

 - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will
   exist for isolated convection over the next week as the upper
   ridge axis retrogrades slightly farther west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The upper-level ridge that has been keeping things warm and dry
will begin to retrograde toward the Four Corners Region this
afternoon. Even with the movement of this ridge, warm temperatures
don`t budge much. Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s are
expected to stick around through the forecast period. One aspect
of the forecast that could be much worse are the heat indices. The
last several days have been mixing down quite well, with afternoon
Td`s falling as low as the low 60s in places. This is keeping the
heat indices in the 105-109 range as opposed to Extreme Heat
Warning criteria of 110+. Assuming the mixing trend continues, we
should be fine with the prevailing Heat Advisory but we will
continue to reevaluate with each forecast cycle.

The retrograding trough will bring northwest flow back to the
region by late this week. This could open the door for a front to
move southward sometime late Fri/Sat. There is some significant
differences between long-range models about the strength of this
front, with the GFS advertising a stronger and wetter FROPA than
the weaker and drier Euro. The NBM is skewed more toward the Euro
and, even still, has some PoPs in our southern zones early
Saturday morning. The solution with rainfall could provide a brief
relief from the heat and dry conditions if it comes to pass. We`ll
continue to monitor model trends and hope for some rain.

After the front moves through Saturday morning, the forecast will
unfortunately return to our previous hot conditions with no rain
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Some isolated but elevated convection has just recently developed
in the vicinity of TXK extending north and east to near Little
Rock but cloud bases across SW AR are currently running north of
10kft and like Monday Morning, this activity will likely dissipate
shortly after sunrise. Elsewhere, cannot rule out brief IFR
ceilings near LFK early this morning but this moisture is very
shallow and will likely mix out after sunrise as well. Otherwise,
we will wait on daytime heating for a weak AC field to develop
near 7-10kft by afternoon before dissipating shortly after sunset.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but report any
wildfire activity to first responders.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 104  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 104  79 101  78 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ 104  75 104  75 /  20  20  20  20
TXK 104  80 103  79 /  20  20   0   0
ELD 102  78 102  78 /  20  20  20  20
TYR 104  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 105  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFK 103  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13