277
FXUS64 KSHV 021820
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION AND AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will be ending early this evening
   over our southern tier of Counties and Parishes.

 - Cooler than average temperatures will continue into the new
   work week as the northeasterly winds linger through Tuesday.

 - We will likely see areas south of I-20 require a Heat Advisory
   once again by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The KSHV Doppler radar continues to show showers diminishing over
deep east TX and fresh enhancement in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over north central LA. Movement is slowly
progressive at less than 20 mph to the southeast. Amounts are
welcome and should not be a concern for us any longer. The model
consensus is for the bulk of convective coverage to shift out of
our cwa late this afternoon and early this evening. Although the
latest runs of the HRRR are indicating spotty activity a little
past sunset.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy with NE winds helping
to dry the air east of I-49 in the backdoor. And we will likely
see some patchy or areas of fog overnight with the freshly wet
soils, especially in eastern Texas, but dense fog is hard to come
by this time of year. Low temps in the morning will bottom out in
the mid to upper 60s north of I-20 and lower 70s along and to the
south as the clouds continue to thin overhead and the cooler
temps reign for a pleasant change.

Sunday and Monday look super nice for August with more below
average readings just about everywhere. Averages this time of year
are low to mid 90s and low to mid 70s. This cold front`s air mass
is a booming 1030mb this morning over the midWest. However, this
cool and dry air will modify a bit in the abundant sunshine today
with still 1025mb for an air mass core, while shifting into the
New England states by Monday. As a result, our surface winds will
start to veer around to E and SE late Tuesday and usher back the
humidity levels we are generally accustomed to in late summer.

So with that and a return to average highs, we may see partial
heat advisory coverage resume over our south around this time of
week. The heat will continue to build areawide and resume back to
seasonal norms through mid to late week. Rainfall will not wait
to long to return, first in our TX Counties as the frontal
boundary is most shallow there along with deeper lingering
moisture.

Then we will start to see the Gulf of America open up again with
some sea breeze type activity each mid to late afternoon over the
Parishes and for deep east TX. Coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will hold off for our north until after next weekend
as a cold front makes another run at the deep south. However, we
should remain out of anything excessive even beyond our current
long term scope. In general, August and September are some of our
drier months barring anything tropical that may develop with the
easterly wave activity peak that still lies ahead in late summer.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the 02/18Z TAF update...Radar is still showing fairly widespread
returns across northern Louisiana early this afternoon with
decreasing activity across east Texas and the remainder of the area.
Expecting this to continue through much of the afternoon hours. As
such, have a mix of RA and VCTS in for most terminals to account for
the current activity. Skies should clear some later this evening
before some high clouds build back in towards the end of the period.
As expected with isolated convection, flight conditions will bounce
all over the place but should overall remain in the VFR to MVFR
category with a few IFR conditions mixed in at times with some of
the heavier storms, should they move over any terminals. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed for days to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  69  91  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  64  88  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
TXK  67  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  64  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  72  92  71  90 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  70  91  70  89 /  10   0  10  30
LFK  73  92  71  92 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33