386
FXUS64 KSHV 141930
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

 - Summer`s days are numbered, but the heat rolls on for a few
   more afternoons above average with Forecast Headlines for
   Heat.

 - We still have a slight chance for some rainfall, but a much
   better offing rainwise later in the long term period.

 - A weak cool front and a Tutt low lifting out of the eastern
   Gulf will bring about better rain chances and less sinking air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Hot day going again with daily maximums not far from here with
mid to upper 90s areawide here at 2pm. Scattered fair weather CU
is a broken deck 5-7kft in a few spots. Pretty flat on top along
and west of I-49, but a little more texture on the visible imagery
to our east. The KSHV 88D is showing a few cells over NE LA and
some scattered thunderstorms across the delta into SE AR and MS.
The HRRR doesn`t really have much to hang your hat on as to where
the rest of the afternoon is headed for new development, but the
GFS and NAM like the lower MS River valley iin general for
additional coverage this late afternoon.

The upper ridge is drifting to the NE and will continue to slowly
lift in that direction through midweek building to 600dam over
N GA/E TN by this time Wednesday afternoon with very good
agreement there. Meanwhile, a Tutt low is well progged to lift
into the eastern Gulf on Thursday, closed at 586-8dam on all the
progs. The GFS and ECMWF both keep it closed deepening to 584 dam
with a very weak surface reflection over the weekend. So the
lowering heights will help tone down the heat for us, but we
really need to get on the eastern side of the low for anything
really to happen good rainwise.

The GFS does this best for us and likes the LA coast by Monday,
while the ECMWF is situated over the FL panhandle. The new run is
much shallower on the cool frontal penetration next week into the
middle MS River valley than previous runs. And so, the upper
ridge reforms over E OK/E TX early in the new season as a deep
Pacific trough on the West coast and Baja sits offshore building
our ridge. The Autumnal Equinox occurs on next Tuesday 9/22 at
7:05 pm. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC maintains the
above average temperatures for us with near normal rain, down from
leaning above. /24/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the 14/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed across the region early this
afternoon, with the cu a bit more agitated over portions of Srn
AR/NCntrl and NE LA along a weakly convergent axis noted on the
visible satellite imagery. Believe this is where the isolated to
scattered convection will develop this afternoon, possibly
affecting the MLU/ELD terminals, where VCTS was maintained with
mention of tempo thunder/locally gusty winds with vsby reductions
for the mid/late afternoon hours. Any convection farther W should
be more isolated if they develop at all, and thus have dropped
VCTS mention for TXK/SHV given the low confidence of occurrence.
Any convection that does develop should diminish by/shortly after
00Z, although some elevated convection debris may linger this
evening/overnight across portions of NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR. Patchy
VLIFR cigs/FG may again develop around daybreak Tuesday across
portions of Deep E TX near LFK, before quickly lifting into a
stratocu field by mid-morning. A scattered cu field should develop
elsewhere again by late morning, with any convection expected to
become more isolated for the mid and late afternoon across NCntrl
LA/SCntrl AR. S winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become light
SSE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  98  77  97 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  75  99  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
DEQ  72  99  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  73  99  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  75 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  74  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15