567
FXUS64 KSHV 221834
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Welcome to the Fall season, and since 7:44 am with the equinox,
but we are still on a summer diurnal course with top of the hour
readings in the mid to upper 80s. Our winds are stirring S/SW and
will likely back again in the mid afternoon to more S/SE. Just
another partly cloudy sky of fair weather cumulus. No changes
needed to highs with a range of low to mid 90s on course as winds
stir better over the next few hours. Speaking of stirring winds,
we have been tasked (with many other offices) to transition to 4
upper air flights starting at midnight tomorrow night in prep for
a challenging tropic scenario. Many sites in our region will be
adding these extra flight times 06/18Z through Thursday afternoon.
NHC disturbance #2 in the NW Caribbean Sea has only a 10% chance
over the next 48hrs. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

By Tuesday night, a much deeper trough and cold front will begin
moving through the Plains, working into the region by Wednesday
morning. Here, the low looks to become cut off and stall somewhere
overhead. This will do two things: keep cooler air filtering into
the region, and allow for narrower bands of heavier precipitation
to form along deeper moisture flow from the Gulf. In turn, below
average temperatures are possible into the weekend, aided by the
increased cloud cover and rain. Additionally, a few locations
could see localized 1-2 inches of rainfall with these heavier
bands. Unfortunately, these amounts will be isolated, and many
locations won`t see much QPF over the next seven days. /44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the 22/18Z TAF period, a healthy cu field has developed early
this afternoon, averaging between 3.5-6Kft with some occasional
low VFR cigs due to this cumulus layer. Most of this cloud cover
should diminish after sunset this evening with some upstream mid
and high level clouds gradually expanding eastward into our local
airspace. Convection should remain north of our terminals along a
slowly advancing cold front currently located from central and SW
Oklahoma back into the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, cannot rule
out some patchy fog once again at a few sites closer to daybreak
Monday with MVFR vsby restrictions possible, mainly at LFK/MLU.
Light S/SW winds will decrease to less than 5 kts overnight and
increase again on Monday from W/SW ahead of the approaching cold
front. Low VFR cigs will be possible again late in the period as
cu/stratocu increases with heating by late morning.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  92  72  89 /   0  10  10  20
MLU  71  93  72  91 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  70  85  62  84 /  20  60  10  10
TXK  73  89  68  86 /   0  30  20  10
ELD  70  91  69  87 /   0  10  20  20
TYR  74  89  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
GGG  72  90  69  88 /   0  20  10  20
LFK  71  91  71  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19