Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
705 FXUS64 KSHV 032352 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 552 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, will spread east across the region through the day along a cold front, exiting the area tonight. - Cooler and drier air will spill east-southeast behind the front, with more seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday. - Another cold front will move through the region Friday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place by week`s end into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 This morning`s cold front is currently draped across the region from Deep East TX to Southwest AR and slowly pushing eastward. These storms have generally weakened over the past few hours from their intensity overnight. This is only in terms of severe winds and hail, as ample deep layer shear has allowed for several embedded spots of developing rotation that are being monitored. In addition to the wind and tornado threat, heavy rainfall will raise a concern for areas of flash and urban flooding this afternoon. PWAT values up to an exceeding 2 inches will be enough to produce showers with high rain rates. In addition, the showers along this cold front are moving northeast along the bulk shear vector. This movement combined with a relatively slow forward progression of the cold front raises concern with training showers. There may still be reintensification of the shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon once peak daytime heating gets going, although the exact extent is still uncertain due to the lingering cloud cover. Current guidance still has showers lingering in our southeastern zones until around midnight tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures, in the low to mid 70s, should come on the coattails of the cold front for Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front will push through late Thursday/Friday that will reinforce the cold and dry airmass, keeping mid to upper 60s into the weekend. Any rain chances associated with this front in previous forecasts has been pushed south of our area this run. However, some chances to our northwest from the main trough axis could persist and clip our northwesternmost zones. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected to persist into the weekend. Long-range models are struggling to resolve another upper- level trough moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday but this system is still likely to be dry. If current RH predictions are accurate that far out, fire weather may become the primary concern again early next week. 57 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 For the 04/00Z TAFs, the line of showers and storms is draped across our southeastern airspace from Toledo Bend up through KMLU. Impacts in progress at this hour will dwindle as the evening continues, with SCT to FEW high clouds building in behind the departing MVFR to lower VFR decks. With the passage of the cold front, winds are becoming westerly and northwesterly, dropping to speeds of 5 kts or less overnight and remaining light into the day tomorrow. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening across the region, for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 53 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 54 73 47 77 / 80 0 0 0 DEQ 46 71 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 50 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 47 74 42 78 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 51 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 50 71 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 50 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...26