Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
994 FXUS64 KSHV 031846 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, will spread east across the region through the day along a cold front, exiting the area tonight. - Cooler and drier air will spill east-southeast behind the front, with more seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday. - Another cold front will move through the region Friday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place by week`s end into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 This morning`s cold front is currently draped across the region from Deep East TX to Southwest AR and slowly pushing eastward. These storms have generally weakened over the past few hours from their intensity overnight. This is only in terms of severe winds and hail, as ample deep layer shear has allowed for several embedded spots of developing rotation that are being monitored. In addition to the wind and tornado threat, heavy rainfall will raise a concern for areas of flash and urban flooding this afternoon. PWAT values up to an exceeding 2 inches will be enough to produce showers with high rain rates. In addition, the showers along this cold front are moving northeast along the bulk shear vector. This movement combined with a relatively slow forward progression of the cold front raises concern with training showers. There may still be reintensification of the shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon once peak daytime heating gets going, although the exact extent is still uncertain due to the lingering cloud cover. Current guidance still has showers lingering in our southeastern zones until around midnight tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures, in the low to mid 70s, should come on the coattails of the cold front for Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front will push through late Thursday/Friday that will reinforce the cold and dry airmass, keeping mid to upper 60s into the weekend. Any rain chances associated with this front in previous forecasts has been pushed south of our area this run. However, some chances to our northwest from the main trough axis could persist and clip our northwesternmost zones. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected to persist into the weekend. Long-range models are struggling to resolve another upper- level trough moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday but this system is still likely to be dry. If current RH predictions are accurate that far out, fire weather may become the primary concern again early next week. 57 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 For the 03/18z TAF period...A mix bag of flight conditions across the region as a cold front and line of storms continue to move through the TAF sites. Some strong to severe storms are possible. Eventually, VFR conditions and some scattered high clouds will move into the region, with post frontal NW winds. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening across the region, for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 53 70 49 / 100 0 0 0 MLU 81 54 73 47 / 100 80 0 0 DEQ 74 46 71 41 / 90 0 0 0 TXK 72 50 68 45 / 100 0 0 0 ELD 75 47 74 42 / 100 10 0 0 TYR 73 51 70 49 / 90 0 0 0 GGG 75 50 71 46 / 100 0 0 0 LFK 76 50 75 46 / 100 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...20