003
FXUS64 KSHV 271858
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
158 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

 - Active weather will return to the ArkLaTex beginning Thursday.
   This will support an increasing risk for severe weather and
   flash flooding

 - Severe weather may pose a risk for damaging winds and an
   isolated tornado or two on Thursday, mainly north of I-20. A
   flash flood threat will also exist areawide Thursday afternoon
   through Friday.

 - Tranquil and cooler conditions arrive towards the end of the
   Labor Day Weekend, continuing through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon features a high
amplitude trough of low pressure east of the Mississippi River
and through the eastern Seaboard, with a lower amplitude ridge of
high pressure over the High Plains and Intermountain West. This
ridge has been dampened some by several weak shorter-wave troughs
over the Pacific Northwest. Closer to the surface, an expansive
area of high pressure is sprawled across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley regions, with a stationary boundary (that will have
important forecast implications for the ArkLaTex over the next
several days) draped across Central Texas and into the nearby
Gulf.

Focusing the synoptic pattern just discussed closer to home, the
Four State Region is under the influence of NW flow aloft as low
pressure resides east and high pressure resides west. Satellite
imagery shows mid and high level clouds spilling southeastward
across the forecast area, associated with an area of widespread
rain/scattered thunderstorms across Kansas and Oklahoma. For the
rest of today, these clouds will scatter some and gradually pull
E/NE, atop of a developing cumulus field that will eventually
dissipate towards sunset. The cloudier skies across northern zones
will help keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, while more
breaks for sun across southern zones will allow highs to reach the
low 90s. Isolated areas of light rain will also remain likely
across SE OK and SW AR through the afternoon before the entire
forecast area dries out for tonight.

The quiet weather will be coming to an abrupt end on Thursday,
initially beginning near and north of the I-30 corridor. Several
factors will be in play tomorrow. To begin the day, an MCS is
likely to be ongoing across SE KS, SW MO, and N AR, producing
heavy rainfall across that area. Meanwhile, the previously
mentioned stationary boundary will be lifting north towards the
ArkLaTex as a warm front in response to weak sfc cyclogenesis
across the OK panhandle. While the beginning of the day Thursday
will be largely dry, as the warm front lifts into the area through
the morning hours, it will serve on its own as a mechanism of lift
while also ushering in a much more humid and unstable airmass.
Model projected instability by the afternoon ranges from 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE, with dewpoints in the 70s and PW values pushing over
2 inches. Additional lift is then anticipated to be provided by a
southward moving outflow boundary from the MCS. Convection is
expected to develop in the vicinity of this outflow and near the
sfc warm frontal boundary by early afternoon. The difference with
this setup compared to recent convective setups that have produced
more widespread convection is the inclusion of marginal, yet
concerning deep layer shear. Increasing mid level flow should help
support 25-35kts of deep layer shear which will be enough to
support updraft organization and therefore introduce the risk for
severe thunderstorms. The biggest severe threat is likely to be
wind, as mid level lapse rates and mid level temperatures appear
too marginal for large hail. Unfortunately, there may be enough
helicity to support a few rotating storms, therefore, not
completely eliminating the tornado threat. Finally, PW values over
2 inches will make for areas of torrential downpours where
isolated instances of flash flooding appear likely. Current SPC
outlook places much of the area between I-30 and I-20 in a
marginal risk for severe weather (tho would not be surprised if
this is upgraded to a slight risk) and the WPC outlook places much
of the area in a slight risk for flash flooding.

Most of the activity through Thursday afternoon will be close to
and north of I-20, eventually shifting southward into the evening.
The severe weather threat is expected to decrease through and
after sunset, however, the threat for heavy rain and flash
flooding could linger overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
Speaking of Friday morning, the next threat for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is looking more likely, possibly resultant of an
overnight MCV or aided by additional perturbations in the mid
level NW flow. The warm frontal boundary will have become
stationary by this point in time, allowing the unstable airmass to
remain in place. At present time, it appears the most likely area
at risk for heavy rainfall early Friday will be most LA zones and
possibly far southern AR. Overall rainfall amounts from Thursday
through Friday will range from 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches, with
isolated higher amounts of 3-4 inches. Zones across E TX are
likely to see the least amount of rain if current trends persist.

The heavy rain threat will eventually shift south late Friday
afternoon into the evening as the frontal boundary very slowly
moves south. Current concern for Friday afternoon and evening is
that the boundary will linger very near far southern zones of LA
and Deep East TX to keep a flash flood and possibly isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms potential, so this will need to be
monitored.

Frontal boundary to then linger across the far southern CWA on
Saturday and with continued pesky NW flow aloft may help spark
areas of rain and thunderstorms, especially during peak heating.
Those with Labor Day weekend plans from about I-20 and north will
see dry conditions, with skies attempting to clear across AR. Sfc
high pressure influence from the Great Lakes will make for much
cooler temperatures on Saturday for the area just mentioned, with
highs in the 70s across AR and low to mid 80s elsewhere.

Conditions will then gradually improve areawide Sunday and Monday
with much more pleasant conditions with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints in the 60s with gradually clearing skies. Monday in
particular looks like a great day to be outdoors across the
ArkLaTex.

Really do not see much in the way of a pattern change through the
middle of next week as ensembles support the
deepening/reamplification of the longwave Eastern US trough. This
will keep the region under the influence of NW flow aloft and
while high temperatures will slowly creep back into the 90s, heat
should be tempered by continued dewpoints in the 60s (and
resultant lower humidity values).

Kovacik


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Lots of AC with heights ranging from 7-12kft across our airspace
attm and the thinking is this moisture should thin somewhat as we
move into the later afternoon and evening hours. Cannot rule out
some very isolated shower or thunderstorm activity through the TAF
period but coverage does not warrant a mention attm with the
exception of the TXK terminal where VCSH has been prevailed
through 01z this evening.

Overnight, sfc winds will quickly veer around to more of a
southeasterly and southerly trajectory, especially across our E TX
terminals as well as the TXK and SHV terminals. Low level moisture
will increase as well and cannot completely rule out MVFR ceilings
returning to at least the LFK terminal near or shortly after
sunrise Thu morning. Otherwise, look for a rapidly returning cu
field across our region Thursday Morning with convection likely
needing to be introduced for at least our northern terminal
locations just beyond this 24hr 18z TAF period.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Spotter activation may be needed beginning Thursday afternoon and
continuing into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  95  74  85 /   0  50  80  90
MLU  70  93  70  81 /  10  70  80  90
DEQ  65  86  66  76 /  20  70  90  60
TXK  69  91  69  80 /  10  60  90  80
ELD  66  88  65  78 /  10  70  90  90
TYR  73  94  74  89 /   0  30  60  70
GGG  72  94  73  87 /  10  40  60  80
LFK  73  94  75  91 /  10  30  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...13