559
FXUS64 KSHV 032015
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
315 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

 - Notable impacts from the remnants of Tropical Depression
   Edouard will end by Friday across the Four State Region.

 - Reduced cloud and rain coverage will introduce more above
   normal summer heat through the weekend into early next week
   (upper 90s likely).

 - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will return (mainly
   south of I-20) later this weekend into most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

As of 2 PM CDT, the remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard are
centered just south of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with
attendant rain bands extending further into the Texas Hill
Country. As ridging rebuilds westward from the Mid-South to across
the Great Plains over the weekend, it will act to shove the
circulation further south into Texas/Mexico and away from
northeast Texas. This ridge position to our north sets up more
zonal This ushers in a gradual return to above normal temperatures
(maximums in the upper 90s/minimums in the low-to-mid 70s). With
dew points remaining in the low 70s through the weekend, the
potential for heat hazard product issuance also remains elevated
(especially along and north of the I-30 corridor into south
Arkansas).

Medium-range guidance suggests a window of Sunday through Tuesday
for our greatest chances (25 to 50 percent) of temperatures
reaching or exceeding 100 degrees, especially north of the I-20
corridor where air remains more subsident. Long-range guidance
suggests somewhat westerly zonal flow aloft and along the base of
ridging that sets up a somewhat uneventful synoptic pattern. That
said, the convection that does develop will most likely be in the
form of a diurnal pattern with the best chance of rain south of
the I-20 corridor under less inhibition from ridging to the north.
WPC QPF values still suggest only an additional 0.10-0.25 inches
of rain south of I-20 outside of precipitation from T.D. Edouard,
making it the last remaining predominant chance of rain across the
Four State Region. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the 03/18z TAF period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites
at this hour. However, some isolated to scattered convection is
moving across our Louisiana zones and could bring some reduced
flight categories at KSHV over the next several hours. Since
coverage is widespread, decided to only include VCTS at KSHV, with
the option to amend if needed. VFR conditions should prevail
through the remainder of the period, but some low cigs and fog
will be possible at KLFK near daybreak for a few hours. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

While widespread spotter activation is not needed, some assistance
might be needed today across portions of East Central Texas as
the remnants of Edouard continue to move through this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  40
MLU  75  96  74  95 /   0  20  20  40
DEQ  71  96  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  73  97  73  97 /   0  10  10  20
TYR  73  93  74  95 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  73  96  73  96 /   0  10  10  40
LFK  73  95  73  94 /   0  20  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ136-149-150-152-
     165-166.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20