159
FXUS64 KSHV 191102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with highs
   in the middle to upper 90s and no rain to speak of.

 - Scattered showers will be possible across the northwestern
   ArkLaTex on Monday, but coverage will be limited and
   accumulation negligible.

 - Temperatures are more noticeably beginning to trend downward by
   mid to late next week, with more widespread highs in the upper
   80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

With guidance continuing to favor hot and dry solutions, there will
be little change in the pattern for this weekend, and little
deviation from recent forecast discussions. The large upper level
high pressure centered over the south central CONUS continues to
wiggle ever so slightly westward day by day, and at this point the
question isn`t so much whether we`ll still have a high overhead
through the weekend and into early next week, but only how
expansive said highs will be. Both the GFS and ECMWF still resolve
this week`s high opening up into a ridge, getting lost in the
synoptic flow, or lack thereof, before conjoining with an emerging
ridge gaining definition over Texas and Mexico early to mid next
week, which may aim to form a new closed high overhead by late in
the week.

In tonight`s installment of "will it or won`t it," featuring
Monday`s potential rainfall, the PoPs are still just barely hanging
on, but failing to make much of a southeastward dent into the
ArkLaTex, now being confined primarily to McCurtain county and
immediately adjacent zones of northeast Texas and southwest
Arkansas. The highest PoPs just barely make it into the 30 to 40
percent range, and are now poised to occur between midnight and
sunrise on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a barely
perceptible shortwave rippling across the synoptic flow on the
northern edge of our tilted ridge at the end of this weekend, the
apparent culprit behind the forcing mechanism which will generate
this rainfall. Lower end PoPs attempt to migrate south towards the I-
30 corridor, perhaps lingering into Monday afternoon, but are worth
taking with a grain of salt at this point, given recent model run
variations, and the possible consequences of minor shifts in
position of synoptic scale features. What PoPs we do have trend
downward after sundown Monday, with dry conditions following for the
remainder of the forecast period.

The latest temperature trends indicate continued areawide heat
through the weekend with lower dewpoints all around, followed by an
emerging cooling trend for our northern zones to kick off the week,
as afternoon highs reach only the lower 90s with even a few upper
80s. This trend will become more widespread as the week continues,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows likewise
trending downward, dropping below 70 degrees areawide by the end
of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For the 19/12z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to continue
throughout the period. Clouds will be limited to a daytime cu field
for much of the day with better coverage in East TX and less as you
go east such that KELD and KMLU should remain mostly SKC. Otherwise,
winds will be light to near calm early this morning and increase
slightly from the SW initially before backing to the S/SE between
5-10 kts throughout the day. Beyond 20/00Z, look for SKC and near
calm winds to return as high pressure continues to dominate our
airspace.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 100  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  97  67  97  69 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  98  72  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  99  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  72  97  75 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  99  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19