853
FXUS64 KSHV 151734
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The current forecast remains largely on track this morning.

MRMS radar imagery shows an MCS moving west of the forecast area
this morning. While this complex is expected to weaken towards
afternoon, remnant outflow produced along its leading edge, in
tandem with increasing daytime heating/instability amidst an
already warm and moist environment is likely to initiate
scattered convection by early afternoon across portions of E TX.
This activity may pose a threat for severe wind gusts and small
hail across E TX and eventually into NW and north-central LA
despite meager deep layer shear profiles. In addition, potential
MCV- related convective development could materialize over
portions of OK and southern AR this afternoon as well, with which
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. Convection will
wind down near and shortly after sunset this evening.

In general, expect another unsettled day across the local forecast
area, with warm and muggy conditions lingering as highs top off in
the upper 80s with dewpoints in the 70s.

Kovacik

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- More typical summer weather is on the way with rounds of
  scattered thunderstorms driven by daytime heating into the
  middle of the week.

- Additional rainfall totals going into the end of this week are
  likely to range at 0.50-1.25 inches with higher totals further
  east, closer to the Mississippi River and Gulf Coast.

- A weather pattern change will allow for drier and hotter
  conditions by the end of this workweek.

Somewhat active weather will continue with ridging over the
Southern Rocky Mountains to our west combined with inverted
troughing overhead setting up a mini-northwest flow pattern
through the weekend into the early workweek. Adjustments were
necessary for this evening to account for the dynamic nature of
convection and outflow boundaries. The next more significant
shortwave arrives by Sunday, driving higher chances of rain. Dew
points will remain above 70 degrees, maintaining muggy outdoor
conditions for the foreseeable future. Temperature maximums and
minimums will remain near-normal in the upper 80s/lower 90s and
mid-70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Long-range guidance continues to suggest the aforementioned
trough axis trapped behind Atlantic ridging to gradually weaken by
the middle of next week before finally being displaced by ridging
to the west. With convection becoming more suppressed and
southerly winds continuing, temperature maximums will return above
normal reaching the mid-90s by the end of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the 15/18z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing an increase
in some popcorn type showers and thunderstorms across most of the
region this afternoon. As such, I have VCTS mentioned for all
terminals through the majority of the afternoon. I only had some
rain written in for a few locations, however, it appears that
more sites will likely see some sort of shower this
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, widespread MVFR conditions are
expected this evening with some IFR mixed in there at times. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening for
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that may develop, as well
as the potential for brief heavy rainfall and minor flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  90  76  93 /  40  50  10  10
MLU  73  89  74  93 /  40  70  20  30
DEQ  70  87  71  90 /  40  30   0   0
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  10   0
ELD  69  86  71  92 /  50  70  10  20
TYR  74  89  75  90 /  30  30   0   0
GGG  73  88  73  90 /  40  40  10   0
LFK  73  91  73  93 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33