911
FXUS64 KSHV 150532
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Dry and warm conditions will continue through the remainder of
   the workweek, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

 - Rainfall will return going into the weekend, with the first
   substantial chance of rainfall in weeks for most of the
   ArkLaTex.

 - A chance of severe weather is possible for portions of our
   region Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Including today, another four afternoons remain of the warm and dry
trend which has defined the weather of recent weeks across the
ArkLaTex. This afternoon finds the responsible high pressure parked
overhead, nearly centered above the Four State Region. This high
will lose its definition somewhat over the next day or so, but not
its influence over our weather. A developing and amplifying ridge
axis over the Great Plains and upper Midwest will keep the high
positioned directly over our region through the day tomorrow. Only
once Thursday arrives will the high open up, getting absorbed by the
ridge, which will weaken as it slides eastward, hurried on its way
by a developing trough over the Intermountain West which looks to
introduce a true pattern shift from what has defined recent weeks.

Before that happens, however, quiet weather conditions will persist
through the week, with highs climbing into the upper 80s and lower
90s each afternoon. Based on recent underperformance and the
projected position of the upper level high, trended 1-2 degrees
warmer than guidance today through Thursday. Guidance continues to
hint at a very slight cooling trend to close out the week, likely
a combination of the departure of the ridge and the NBM`s recent
cool bias. Morning lows will remain generally in the upper 50s and
lower 60s throughout.

The aforementioned upper level trough looks to reintroduce rainfall
to the forecast on Saturday, for the first time in weeks for many
sites, though specific details remain hazy, as long range forecast
models are split on the setup. This morning`s 12Z GFS run depicts an
emerging shortwave and closed low within the upper level flow,
riding a more southerly course across central Texas. This feature is
entirely absent in the corresponding ECMWF run, which features an
intact longwave trough digging south across the Plains as it swings
its attendant cold front into the ArkLaTex. The ECMWF solution is
more favorable for organized severe weather, while the GFS run hints
at less defined convection but more widespread rain showers.
Probabilistically speaking, both solutions look equally likely at
this point based on consultation of the WPC cluster analysis.

Despite this uncertainty, in one aspect the ensemble members show
better agreement, with regard to timing. The current guidance favors
a more progressive solution, pushing the system and its rainfall out
of the ArkLaTex more quickly and leaving a mostly dry remainder to
Sunday and beginning to next week. Finally, the area of risk
highlighted in the Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday has been
extended southwards, capturing a larger swath of the ArkLaTex,
including cities along and just south of the I-20 corridor as well
as all previously included zones to the north. Bear in mind, these
potential impacts remain 5 days out, may change noticeably in that
time, and will as always be carefully monitored through the course
of the coming days.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

For the 15/06z TAF period...VFR conditions will remain across the
region, with mostly clear skies. Winds will range from
light/variable to ENE between 5 to 10 mph. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  58  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  56  85  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  55  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  88  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  58  88  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  59  89  65  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20