957
FXUS64 KSHV 012209
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
509 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, CLIMATE, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday morning,
   as moderate to heavy rain will move across our NW zones.
   Rainfall amounts of 1" to 3", with some isolated totals will be
   possible.

 - A slow moving upper trough/cool front will keep rain chances in
   the forecast through the weekend over the entire forecast area.

 - Cooler temperatures are expected to follow next week, as a
   stronger cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday,
   ushering in the coolest air so far this fall season.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A much needed pattern change has unfolded across the region, as a
closed upper trough has ejected into the Central Plains. Along and
ahead of the associated cool front, much needed rain has developed
across the western half of the region this afternoon. Unfortunately,
this rain could be on the heavy side, which has prompted us to
issue a Flood Watch through 7 AM Friday for areas along and west
of a line from Tyler Texas to Clarksville Texas to McCurtain
County Oklahoma. This watch essentially coincides with the
Moderate Risk that WPC has out for portions of our forecast area.
So far, no reported flooding, however Tyler Pounds Field Airport
has reported nearly 1-3/4" of rain in a about 1-1/2 hours. With
more rain expected in the watch area tonight along and ahead of
the nearly stationary front, flooding could become an issue.

The trough will lose some steam tonight into Friday, as it starts
to open up, but a developing sfc low across East Texas along the
front will keep decent rain chances across the NW half of the
region through Saturday morning, essentially along and west of a
line from Lufkin Texas to Shreveport to El Dorado Arkansas.
Slight afternoon rain chances will be possible over the remainder
of the region, as moisture from an inverted trough in the Gulf
will help ignite some isolated convection during the peak heating
hours. The front will finally push through the region on Saturday,
but models are keeping some post frontal precipitation chances
possibly into early Sunday morning.

Eventually, a much stronger cool front will sweep across the
region on Sunday. Expect to see a return in dry weather, along
with the coolest temperatures of the early fall season for most of
next week. Daily afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid
80s, with overnight lows in the 50s. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with S winds 5-10G20KT this aftn
with convection on approach. KTYR/KTXK shift to N/NE overnight
others vary. Most of the dynamics are tied to the upper low over
the TX/OK panhandles. This upper low is weakening and will move
quickly NE, stretching the boundary SW- NE while laying it into
our area. It may not move through until early Sunday with a 2nd
sfc high. Convection may be lingering/redeveloping in the
corridor ahead of the front, until sometime early on Sunday. /24/

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It was a September for the record books! All-time Avg temperature
records were set at 4 of our climate sites, with top 5 readings at
the remainder of the climate locations. The numbers are as follows:

LOCATION        SEPT AVG.  ALL-TIME RANK   PREVIOUS/CURRENT RECORD
------------------------------------------------------------------
LONGVIEW TX       85.1          1ST            84.3 IN 1939
TYLER TX          84.8          1ST            84.7 IN 2019
TEXARKANA AR      84.4          1ST            84.3 IN 1939
SHREVEPORT LA     84.2          1ST            83.7 IN 2019
MONROE, LA        83.5          3RD            83.7 IN 1911
EL DORADO, AR     83.1          2ND            83.6 IN 1925
LUFKIN TX         82.5          4TH            83.2 IN 1933
------------------------------------------------------------------


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Spotter activation could be needed through Friday morning.
Although some damaging winds can`t be ruled out, flash flooding
will by the primary threat, especially in and near the Flood
Watch. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  88  71  83 /  30  30  40  50
MLU  72  93  71  88 /  20  20  30  40
DEQ  65  80  62  76 /  80  80  60  60
TXK  69  81  66  76 /  60  60  60  60
ELD  70  88  66  82 /  30  30  40  40
TYR  71  81  69  79 /  70  70  60  60
GGG  70  85  68  82 /  60  50  50  50
LFK  72  88  71  85 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
     136.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24