375
FXUS64 KSHV 051730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Fog remains dense across portions of SW AR and SE OK attm but
VSBYs are trying to come up and believe that will continue enough
that we went ahead and let the Dense Fog Advisory drop off at
10am. Kept areas of fog in the grids through Noon areawide however
and kept some mention of fog across our northern most zones north
of the boundary through mid-afternoon.

Concerning temperatures, am very hesitant to lower max temps as
our morning sounding suggests that we should see clouds scatter
even quicker than was the case yesterday but it`s tempting given
the widespread low level cloud cover on satellite. Seeing some
breaks just to our southwest attm and this should open the
envelope so to speak with increased scattering of cloud cover from
the southwest through the afternoon.

While no changes were made to max temps today, did have to
drastically slow down the diurnal temperature trend through the
day in respect to hourly forecast temps, especially near and north
of the boundary which currently resides just north of the I-20
Corridor in NE TX into SW AR.

Update has been sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A weak frontal boundary lingering across northeast Texas into
southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas will maintain low-level
instability across the region. The combination of the front and a
moist airmass, characterized by dewpoint values in the 60s, has
allowed for areas of fog across the region with some locations
experiencing reduced visibility values as low as 1/4sm. Therefore,
a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through mid-morning across much
of northeast Texas, northwest Louisiana, and southwest Arkansas.
At this time, will hold off on extending the advisory south due to
the lack of observations currently supporting an advisory along
with the displacement of these locations from the front.

Conditions will be slow to improve through the morning, with
mostly cloudy skies expected areawide. As temperatures climb into
the upper 70s today, low ceilings forecast to dissipate. However,
could see a few showers developing across the region due to
marginal instability in response to weak southwest flow aloft and
the lingering frontal boundary.

Pressure gradient to increase tonight allowing for south winds to
remain elevated from 5 to 10 mph, which should be enough to mitigate
any dense fog concerns. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into
the mid 60s.

On Thursday, upper flow to remain nearly zonal with frontal
boundary sinking into northeast Texas and south Arkansas. Could
see a few showers along the front during the time of afternoon
heating. Otherwise, highs on Thursday to climb into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Pattern to remain nearly unchanged through Saturday as the frontal
boundary lingers across Arkansas and northeast Texas. Could see a
chance of showers each day across these areas, as well as
southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures through the end of the week into
Saturday will range from highs in the upper 70s to lows in the
low to mid 60s.

High pressure to dive south across the region on Saturday night
into Sunday bringing much cooler temperatures to the region.
Post-frontal widespread precipitation is expected to develop
on Sunday afternoon, with periods of rain continuing through the
end of the forecast period on Wednesday. The higher rain totals
can be expected mainly south of I-20.

Much colder temperatures expected late in the weekend into early
next week with highs averaging in the 50s and lows in the 30s and
40s. By Wednesday morning, could see temperatures dip to near
freezing across the I-30 corridor. At this time, precipitation
should remain south of these areas within an airmass that will
remain above freezing, posing no significant wintry impacts. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

For the 05/18Z TAFs, VSBYs have noticeably improved south and west
but remain at sub-VFR distances north and east. CIGs likewise
remain largely in the IFR to MVFR range, with gradual improvement
and scattering out expected this afternoon, as BKN to SCT MVFR
dominate, continuing into the evening and overnight. Before dawn
tomorrow, another round of CIG/VIS reductions is expected, as
conditions deteriorate back to at least IFR conditions. Showers
across our eastern zones will diminish this afternoon, with quiet
wx to follow. Southerly winds will continue at sustained speeds of
5 to 10 kts, becoming more southwesterly tomorrow, with gusts of
up to 20 kts possible throughout.

SP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  82  63  80 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  65  82  63  80 /  10  10   0  10
DEQ  62  79  56  71 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  66  81  62  78 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  63  81  59  77 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  65  81  63  80 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  64  82  62  80 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  65  81  64  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26