099
FXUS64 KSHV 161629
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM this evening,
   with further extension possible.

 - Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s through much
   of the weekend, although drier air moving in may provide some
   relief.

 - Widespread rain chances could return to the region as soon as
   Monday and potentially continue through the remainder of the
   forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper-level ridging remains over the Southeast and southern
Appalachia, continuing to keep the Ark-La-Tx warm. The upper-level
high is expected to retrograde westward in the latter half of the
week. This will keep temperatures elevated while also working to
inhibit any showers that try to develop. We may still get some
pop-up showers break through in the afternoon hours, but nothing
that will bring any meaningful change to the current drought
conditions. The shifting high could bring some relief to the heat
indices over the next few days, even with temperatures stuck in
the upper 90s. Short range models are suggesting that drier air
will accompany this high and could be able to mix down toward the
surface, which would help keep heat indices further away from
advisory criteria. The area is already hovering on the edge of
Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon but the final call on
extending the current product will go to the overnight shift.

The high should begin to weaken as we start the next work week,
which will open up the potential for a front to sweep through the
region. Current guidance has an upper-level trough pushing
eastward towards the Northern Plains by the end of this weekend
and pushing southward by Monday. If this trough is able to push
far enough south, the region could see some comparatively cooler
temperatures in the mid 90s and some widespread rain chances. We
are excited for any break from the heat and will be watching this
setup over the coming days.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the 16/12z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail for
all terminals, although we are seeing some lower clouds across
portions of the area, but not low enough to change flight
categories. I have a TEMPO group in through for KLFK where we
could see some MVFR conditions over the next few hours. Otherwise,
winds will be light during this period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  77  97  74 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  99  76  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  98  72  98  70 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  98  76  98  74 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  99  74  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  98  77  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
GGG 100  76  99  73 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  96  75  95  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...33