601
FXUS64 KSHV 241114
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

 - An increase in showers and thunderstorms after daybreak this
   morning across Southeast Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana will
   result in cooler temperatures and some spotty much needed
   rainfall for these areas today.

 - Oppressive heat will continue elsewhere across the region
   today, despite an increase in elevated cloud cover and isolated
   showers and thunderstorms. Thus, the Heat Advisory remains in
   effect today for McCurtain County Oklahoma, East Texas, extreme
   Southwest Arkansas, Western and Central Louisiana.

 - The oppressive heat will return areawide Tuesday and continue
   through much of this week, although daytime temperatures should
   slowly back away from the century mark across Southwest
   Arkansas and North Louisiana by late week as the potential for
   isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak inverted sfc
trough extending from the Red River Valley of Srn OK into extreme
NE TX to along the AR/LA line, although this bndry will remain
inactive overnight before slowly returning back N later this
morning. However, this may be short-lived as a weak perturbation
aloft begins to slide SE across NE OK and the Ozarks into the
Mid-South region overnight, which should enhance increasing convection
development especially as a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ feeds better forcing
into these areas. Thus, convection should deepen by/after daybreak
over Nrn/Ern AR and slide SE into the Lower MS Valley, which
should tap into stronger heating/instability farther S as the
convection shifts into Ern LA/much of MS. Despite the increasing
cloud cover, believe that daytime temps should climb at least into
the lower/mid 90s by afternoon over these areas, yielding
sufficient instability within a high moisture environment
characteristic of PW`s of 1.8-1.9 inches. Thus, isolated strong to
severe storms with the potential for damaging downburst winds will
be possible mainly over the ECntrl LA, with convection expected to
be more isolated farther W across SW AR/Wrn LA. Did expand the NBM
pops back W to accommodate some of the HREF solutions, with the
thickening cloud cover/increasing convection resulting in cooler
temperatures over more of NCntrl LA than previously forecast. As a
result, have cancelled the Heat Advisory today for Claiborne,
Lincoln, Union, and Ouachita Parishes, although criteria will be
more marginal farther SE into ECntrl LA which may see criteria by
late morning/early afternoon before the convection/outflow cools
these areas. Despite some elevated cigs farther W, temps should
again near/exceed the triple digits again especially over E TX/Wrn
LA, with heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees.

Any isolated remnant convection should end by early this
afternoon, although overnight cooling will remain limited given
the persistent elevated cigs and S winds. Even with the ridge
center mainly unchanged over NM/far W TX Tuesday, and some
elevated cigs lingering through the afternoon, the oppressive
heat will continue and expand back areawide, with the string of
triple digits expected to continue across E TX in the least, with
heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. The Heat Advisory
will likely be extended/expanded back E again Tuesday by the day
shift to highlight the major heat impacts, even as the potential
remains for isolated convection mainly in the morning for Srn AR
and ECntrl LA.

The progs continue to suggest that the ridge center will begin to
retrograde farther W into the Desert SW for mid and late week,
resulting in a better defined NW flow regime over the region.
While triple digits should be widespread again Wednesday even with
isolated convection possible across the Ern zones in the
afternoon, convection may increase Wednesday night with the
approach of another weakness aloft that will slide SSE around the
ridge, and linger across E TX/N LA Thursday. The increasing cloud
cover and convection should finally result in "cooler" daytime
temps away from the century mark Thursday, which may carry over
into Friday even as the weakness aloft shifts farther S into
coastal SE TX/S LA. However, above normal temps and mostly dry
conditions will continue over the region through the remainder of
the extended, as the riding aloft begins to expand back E into the
area and Lower MS Valley/Mid-South region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the 24/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions should prevail across
all but the eastern third of our airspace where late morning,
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could possibly
impact the ELD and MLU terminals. Across the remainder of our
airspace, increasing elevated ceilings above 12kft will spread
from southward across our airspace with ceilings a little harder
to come by across the TYR and LFK terminals. Convection should
dissipate across our eastern half during the late evening hours
Look for mostly S to SW winds near 10kts with some higher gusts
across our airspace with the exception of the TXK/ELD and MLU
terminals where winds will be mostly variable, at least through
mid morning.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today across portions of
North Central Louisiana for the potential for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging downburst
winds. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 100  79 /  20  10  10   0
MLU  92  75  97  75 /  60  20  20   0
DEQ  95  72 101  72 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  97  77  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  92  74  98  74 /  40  20  20   0
TYR 105  79 102  79 /   0  10  10   0
GGG 104  78 102  78 /  10  10  10   0
LFK 102  77 100  76 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>003-010>013-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13