317
FXUS64 KSHV 110615
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
115 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - The upper ridge will continue to briefly weaken its grip on our
   region, allowing for a trough and weak frontal boundary to drop
   south with rain chances increasing areawide today.

 - The ridge will quickly reassert control and expand its reach by
   this weekend into much of next week, limiting daily convection
   to very isolated activity mainly during hours of peak heating.

 - Medium-range guidance continues to hint at a longwave pattern
   shift next weekend with the upper ridge retrograding W/SW and a
   stronger front diving south across the eastern half of the U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A brief and subtle pattern shift continues early this morning with
slight weakening of the upper ridge axis, allowing a trough to dip
south across our region. The trough will help to nudge a weak cool
front slightly farther south into our northern zones later today,
resulting in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms to areas
along and north of I-30. Farther to the south, convection will be
less concentrated given the weaker forcing although the sea-breeze
enhancement may further contribute to convection in our southern
zones as a weak sfc low/trough continues to drift northward along
the central Gulf coast this afternoon.

Despite a bit more in the way of cloud cover today, temperatures
will still range through the 90s this afternoon so max heat index
values will still likely reach into the lower 100s for at least a
few hours. Compressional warming ahead of the front may also help
to amplify this heat so still cannot rule out some areas briefly
reaching heat advisory criteria but should remain the exception
and not the rule. Beyond today, any rainfall looks hard to come
by over the weekend and through much of next week as the upper
ridge axis will quickly settle back across the region.

Temperatures will climb higher once again through at least the
middle of next week with heat advisories possibly returning as
well. Convection will generally be isolated to widely scattered
at best during this timeframe, driven mainly by diurnal heating
and instability each day through much of next week. Looking out
beyond next week, the upper ridge still appears set to retrograde
to the W/SW by next weekend as part of a longwave pattern shift.
Of course, this is still beyond a week out in the forecast so we
will continue to monitor these trends in hopes of finally breaking
the prolonged summer heat.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For the 11/06z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail across
the region. I did keep some mention of some lower visibility for
KLFK tonight as some patchy fog will be possible there, but overall
I think the rest of the terminals will remain at VFR through the
rest of the night. A CU field should develop late Friday morning and
into the afternoon hours where I have carried some SCT to FEW at
around 3k feet. I have also left mention of VCTS for all terminals
starting as early as 11/15z and continuing through 11/21z or later.
Winds are expected to remain light throughout this TAF period.

/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  97  75 /  30  10  20  10
MLU  96  73  95  74 /  40  10  40   0
DEQ  91  68  96  70 /  70  10  20  10
TXK  93  72  96  74 /  50  10  20   0
ELD  95  70  96  72 /  40  10  30   0
TYR  95  75  98  76 /  40  10  20   0
GGG  97  74  99  74 /  40  10  20   0
LFK  93  73  94  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33