735
FXUS64 KSHV 141442
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
942 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Decided to issue a Flood Watch for McCurtain and Red River
counties through this evening. With the ongoing precipitation
across the area and additional rainfall expected from a system
moving through central Texas, flood concerns will increase later
this morning and into the afternoon hours. /33/

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - One more day of mostly scattered diurnally driven convection
   before we see an uptick in temperatures.

 - Some areas could see temperatures nearing and or exceeding
   triple digits on Tuesday but especially Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Could tropical moisture be in our future for late week?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Another active day of storms on Sunday with some of these
producing strong and damaging wind gusts uprooting trees across
portions of Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana. Scattered
thunderstorms will once again be possible on Monday. While the
best upper forcing will be found near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor given the remaining shear axis across this area, PWAT
values near 2 inches across our entire forecast area will await
sufficient daytime instability for the generation of this
convection but storms may be ongoing early closer to the shear
axis across our west and northwest zones.

By Tuesday, drier air begins to infiltrate our region from the
south in the form of lower PWATS as we begin to become more under
the influence of a weak upper level ridge extending from the Mid-
Atlantic Region into the Tenn Valley and into Southeast Texas.
Isolated to widely scattered storms will still be possible but
will be tied to a weak shear axis across our far northern zones
and across our far southern zones. Any semblance of the shear
axis is gone by Wednesday but the ridge is still in place. Also on
Wednesday we begin to look across the Northeast and Northern Gulf
Coast where an easterly wave will be trying to become better
organized as it moves closer to the Southeast Louisiana Coast. The
GFS tries to bring this system under the ridge into SE TX by late
Thu into early Friday. Both the operational ECMWF and NAM output
have similar solutions but how close this system remains to the
coast and just how well developed the system can become will
determine our impacts from such a system. For now, NBM is
depicting increasing rain chances across our far southeast zones
by Thursday and across our eastern half Friday and Saturday. This
should help with the heat as we could be looking at Heat
Advisories becoming necessary as early as Tuesday across our
eastern half and that would likely continue into at least
Wednesday.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the 14/12Z TAFs, cloud decks are dropping to MVFR and IFR
with associated VSBY reductions where patchy fog develops. CIGs
will rebound to lower VFR by early afternoon, when another round
of storms will impact the region from the northwest, continuing
through much of the evening. Winds will become southwesterly and
increase to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts during the day, with
gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening
across portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North
Louisiana for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall,
which may result in localized flooding. /15/

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  97  78 /  30  20  10   0
MLU  95  75  97  76 /  30  20  20   0
DEQ  88  70  90  71 /  50  30  30  10
TXK  94  74  96  75 /  40  30  20   0
ELD  92  72  95  73 /  40  20  20  10
TYR  92  74  93  74 /  40  20  10   0
GGG  92  74  94  74 /  40  20  10   0
LFK  93  74  95  73 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26