Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
631 FXUS64 KSHV 302347 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 647 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 - A pattern change will bring a risk of heavy rain and severe storms across our far W/NW zones by Thursday, with rain chances increasing areawide through the remainder of the work week. - Cooler temperatures are expected to follow by this weekend, as a cold front is expected to usher in the coolest air so far this fall season for the first full week of October. - Mostly dry conditions will also return for at least the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Quiet conditions remain in place across the region today, as upper-level ridging still has a grip on the region. Despite increased cloudiness, temperatures have still managed to climb above normal, with most areas reaching to low to mid 90s this afternoon. However, a pattern change will start to unfold across the region late this evening into the Thursday, as a closed upper trough across the Four Corners Region of the CONUS will eject into the Central Plains. As this occurs, the upper-ridge will slowly shift east of the region, allowing the upper trough and associated cold front to push across the Southern Plains into our forecast zones. This will bring much needed rain into our northwestern zones by tomorrow morning, along with a Marginal Chances of severe weather. Although damaging winds will be a threat, heavy rainfall will be the primary concern due to the slow moving eastern progression of the trough. The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk for Excessive rainfall in our western zones, generally along and west of a line from Tyler Texas to DeQueen Arkansas, as 2" to 4" of rainfall will be possible. This outlook could result in the issuance of a Flood Watch for those aforementioned areas over the next 12-24 hours. Eventually, the intensity of the trough will lose some steam by late Thursday evening, as it starts to open up. Despite, this, rain chances will remain, eventually spreading into the entire region on Friday. The associated sfc cold front is expected to push across the region on Friday, but models are keeping some post frontal precipitation chances into Saturday, and possibly early Sunday morning, before the cooler and drier conditions push into the region. Expect cooler and drier conditions to move into the region by the end of the weekend through the first half of next week. We will likely see some of the coolest temperatures of the early fall, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 For the 01/00z TAFs...VFR conditions will generally prevail, especially over the next 6 hours, across the region. Winds should begin to calm a tad overnight to hover around 5-10 kts. MVFR cigs could begin to develop as early as 01/09z for KLFK and spread across most terminals by daybreak. Ceilings should begin to lift shortly after daybreak to around 5000 ft during the late morning. In line with the previous package, rain should begin to impact KTYR around 01/15z and shift eastward. KMLU and KELD remain dry for this period but may be included in a future package. Both gusty winds up to 20 kts and lower visibilities will be possible with ongoing rain, especially during heavier downpours. Winds should begin to weaken again as we wrap up this period, although rain will likely linger through the overnight hours. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Spotter activation could be needed by tomorrow evening into Friday. Although some damaging winds can`t be ruled out, flash flooding will by the primary threat, especially across East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and portions of Southwest Arkansas along and north of Interstate 30. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 94 74 87 / 0 10 40 60 MLU 71 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 40 DEQ 71 88 66 82 / 10 60 90 80 TXK 73 91 70 83 / 0 40 60 80 ELD 70 94 71 88 / 0 0 40 60 TYR 75 87 71 82 / 20 70 80 80 GGG 73 91 71 85 / 0 50 60 70 LFK 73 91 72 87 / 0 50 50 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...57