437
FXUS64 KSHV 131133
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Late summer heat continues unabated with more heat advisories
   likely beyond today through much of this upcoming week.

 - Rain chances will be largely negligible throughout the week as
   well with only very isolated afternoon convection due to the
   influence of the dominant upper ridge.

 - The ridge is expected to migrate back westward and further
   retrograde W/SW by late next weekend, paving the way for a
   cold front to make its way south into our region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Although the calendar suggests temperatures should be trending
cooler by this point in September, that isn`t the case for now.
The unrelenting heat will be with us for the duration of this
upcoming week due to the upper ridge that simply refuses to give
up the ghost. At this point, we`re just as tired of writing about
it as the rest of you are of reading about it. So for this last
full week of summer, just know that it will very much continue to
feel like it and then some. Heat safety reminders should still be
exercised throughout this week with all outdoor activities and
especially youth sports with daily high temperatures in the upper
90s to lower 100s.

Adding to the heat concerns, a lack of appreciable rainfall will
also continue to exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions and
wildfire danger. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain
light throughout the week while afternoon relative humidity isn`t
expected to bottom out too low given that dew points are expected
to hold in the lower to mid 70s. Of course, the counter to that is
the additional impact on heat concerns with heat index values from
105-109 degrees with less mixing out of low-level moisture during
the afternoon.

Looking out beyond this upcoming week, medium-range guidance does
continue to point toward an eventual pattern shift beyond this
forecast period. However, the caveat is there just isn`t enough
confidence yet to say exactly what that pattern change will bring
in terms of heat relief and improving rain chances. For now, NBM
guidance continues to trend slightly lower with temperatures by
next weekend with a cold front attempting to make a run southward
into our region. So maybe, just maybe we`re starting to see some
light at the end of this long tunnel we call Summer in the South.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the 13/12z TAF update...Radar imagery remains quiet this
morning, but that should change as we move into the afternoon
hours as some isolated convection will develop. I don`t think that
any terminals will see a direct impact from any thunderstorms, but
I have left mention of VCTS for all terminals this afternoon.
While winds will be light throughout this period, there is some
potential that winds could be gusty and erratic at times from any
outflow boundaries that develop from thunderstorms. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  76  99  76 /  20   0  10   0
MLU  99  75 100  75 /  30  10  10   0
DEQ 100  71  99  71 /  10   0   0   0
TXK 100  75  99  75 /  20   0  10   0
ELD 100  73 100  73 /  20   0  10   0
TYR  99  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
GGG 101  74 100  74 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33