121
FXUS64 KSHV 310612
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Showers are expected to increase overnight through the day
   Saturday, before diminishing in time for the trick-or-treaters
   over East Texas and Western Louisiana this evening.

 - Aside from the potential for isolated showers Sunday morning
   over Southcentral Arkansas and Eastcentral Louisiana, warm,
   humid, and dry conditions will return elsewhere to start the
   first day of November, which will carry over into Monday.

 - The return of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
   region Tuesday, with the passage of a cold front. The potential
   for at least isolated strong storms will exist over at least
   the southern half of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Air mass moistening is underway early this morning as scattered
areas of -RA continues to spread ENE across E TX/Wrn LA, along a
NW to SE shortwave trough that extends from WCntrl OK into ECntrl
TX. Sfc obs have depicted lowering cigs earlier this evening
across Lower E TX/WCntrl LA due to increased low level moisture
advection, with recent obs indicating that -RA is indeed reaching
the ground with some of these light returns on the mosaic radar
imagery, with additional -SHRA development expected overnight as
this trough ejects NE through the Middle Red River Valley into extreme
Ern TX/Wrn LA by daybreak. Even as this trough ejects NE out of
the region by mid to late morning, weak isentropic ascent will
contribute to additional scattered -SHRA development over the
region, with the short term progs continuing to depict another
weak perturbation in the flow regime traversing N TX/Srn OK this
afternoon and into the region. Thus, additional convection
development will be possible through the afternoon, before
diminishing from W to E during the evening as this disturbance
exits the region. Trick-or-treaters in E TX/Wrn LA should see the
-SHRA diminishing early this evening, with the remainder of the
area expected to see more hit or miss -SHRA with impacts minimal
through the evening/overnight hours.

While the morning low clouds/-DZ should lift by midday/early
afternoon, a very moist air mass will linger and result in a mix
of clouds and sun with much warmer (above normal) temps near
80/lower 80s, especially as ridging aloft begins to build and
shift E into the region from the Srn Plains. This will occur ahead
of longwave troughing that will traverse the Great Basin Sunday
before entering the Rockies/Four Corners Region by Monday
morning, before amplifying further as it enters the Srn Plains
Monday night/Tuesday morning. The latest 00Z medium range guidance
continues to slow the Ewd progression of this system towards our
area, with impacts delayed until late Monday night across the NW
zones, and across the remainder of the region Tuesday. Convection
should begin to deepen along and just E of the dryline Monday
afternoon over W TX/Cntrl OK, before the attendant cold front
overtakes the dryline Monday night and allows the convection to
spread E into the region. While some severe risk will be possible
Monday afternoon over from portions of N TX into Cntrl OK, the
storms should weaken as they move into SE OK/NE TX late as SB
instability weakens with the loss of diurnal heating.

With the timing consensus remaining similar to previous model
runs with the convection moving through the area during the day
Tuesday, enough of an instability return from additional low level
moisture advection and daytime insolation may result in the
threat for at least isolated strong storms over portions of the
area Tuesday, which continues to be hinted by the various AI and
ML guidance. This zone of deeper convection will provide the best
potential for widespread wetting rains over the entire forecast
period, with QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches possible. In the wake of
this system and cold frontal passage, cooler and drier conditions
will return, with near seasonal temps expected through the end of
the new work week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the 31/06Z TAF update, ceilings to lower to IFR/LIFR through
today, persisting through this evening as a disturbance moves across
the region. Additionally, VCSH conditions and light east-southeast
winds expected across area terminals through the period. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  64  81  65 /  60  20  10   0
MLU  76  63  79  64 /  30  50  20   0
DEQ  69  61  79  62 /  60  40  10   0
TXK  69  61  79  63 /  60  40  10   0
ELD  71  61  79  62 /  50  50  20   0
TYR  73  63  82  66 /  60  10  10   0
GGG  71  62  82  64 /  60  10  10   0
LFK  76  64  83  65 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05