095
FXUS64 KSHV 171733
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - A few showers and thunderstorms possible overnight across
   mainly the I-30 corridor.

 - Warm and muggy pattern to continue into midweek with little
   change expected as southerly winds bring increased dew points.

 - Our much advertised wet end to the work week is still on course
   in similar fashion with 1 to 3 inches and some higher amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 946 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Morning fog resulting from the prevailing warm and moist airmass
to continue to erode with lingering low clouds to persist
throughout the day. High temperatures are forecast to climb into
the lower 80s areawide. A stationary frontal boundary across the
region will lift north as a warm front this afternoon, lifting
into Arkansas by midnight tonight. Additionally, a surface cold
front will swing east into Oklahoma. Upper-level flow will be
mainly westerly with enough forcing in the warm sector ahead of
the cold front to allow for a chance for a few stray showers and
thundersorms, mainly across south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma
this evening.

Weak upper-level ridging to maintain dry conditions through
Tuesday. Southerly flow resulting from a surface high across the
southeast will also continue to maintain warm conditions with
afternoon highs in the lower 80s areawide.

Pattern shift expected Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper-
trough across southern California begins to track east into the
Four Corners region through Thursday afternoon resulting
increased southwest flow across the ArkLaTex. Warm air advection
will further enhance destabilization ahead of the upper-trough. A
surface low deepening across Texas on Wednesday night into
Thursday will could serve as the trigger for widespread convection
across much of the ArklaTex from Wednesday night into Thursday.
Highest rainfall totals through this timeframe could average
around 3 inches  with isolated higher amounts across mainly
northeast Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas.
Additionally, some strong storms may be possible.

Conditions to gradually improve late Thursday night into Friday
as upper-flow becomes zonal behind a cold front exiting the
region to the east. Eastward moving upper-low across Oklahoma and
Missouri lagging behind the front could maintain lingering clouds
and scattered rain chances throughout the day on Friday.

Upper-level ridging to rebuild behind the front allowing for
mainly dry and stable conditions through the weekend. A cooler
airmass in place will allow for highs in the 60s to lower 70s and
lows in the upper 40s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Clouds are clearing out faster this morning than yesterday, but
some lingering cu will remain for much of the afternoon along with
some gusty southerly winds. Winds will come down a bit overnight
but should stay elevated enough to keep major fog from
developing. IFR/MVFR ceilings will develop again early tomorrow
morning that will gradually lift through the day. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  68  85  66 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  82  63  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  80  64  82  60 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  83  68  82  65 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  79  63  81  62 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  83  69  83  65 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  83  66  84  63 /  10  10  10   0
LFK  84  65  85  64 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57