547
FXUS64 KSHV 171113
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
613 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

 - High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s will continue
   through the week and into the weekend, with dry conditions
   expected throughout.

 - Slight rainfall chances return early next week, but confidence
   and coverage remain unclear at this point.

 - Minor relief from the heat may be possible next week, primarily
   in the form of overnight lows in the 60s across our northern
   zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

It may be something of a weather cliche to say "it`s a dry heat,"
but for the next few days in the ArkLaTex, it will be an accurate
cliche, and is uncommon enough in the Deep South to merit remarking
on. As the large upper level high expands and grows in strength, its
reach will envelop our Four State Region, effectively shutting off
any significant rainfall chances for the rest of this work week and
into the weekend. As suggested above, while afternoon highs will
still climb into the mid to upper 90s, dew points will mix out from
near 70 degrees in the late morning to upper 60s by early afternoon,
with the resulting heat indices just barely topping the century
mark, and not meriting the issuance of a further Heat Advisory at
this time.

This drier heat will be a welcome break for most, as compared to the
swelteringly muggy conditions which so regularly define our ArkLaTex
summers, but we still have a ways to go before we truly get anything
resembling a first taste of autumn. The high over the ArkLaTex will
remain with us through Friday and Saturday, reaching from the Rio
Grande to the Ozarks, very effectively blocking any pattern change
until it begins to break down going into Sunday, diminishing into a
weak ridge and ultimately getting absorbed into the upper level
flow. The primary discernible feature aloft early next week will
be an occasionally closed low along the Gulf Coast of Florida.

Meanwhile, as previously discussed, an upper level trough over the
Rockies will attempt to push its way eastward, but in a deviation
from recent guidance, the GFS is indicating a resurgent high
building over the ArkLaTex by early to mid next week. If this comes
to pass, it was serve to block our potential synoptically-induced
rainfall chances. The Euro, by contrast, still hints at ridging,
but significantly weaker and less expansive, still leaving the
door open to a southward impulse resulting from the trough aloft
to our north. With these discrepancies, PoPs remain for Monday and
Tuesday, but with less confidence and spottier coverage.
Temperature trends are thus favoring prolonged mid to upper 90s,
with less of a cooling trend early next week, but lows in the
upper 60s do begin to creep into our Arkansas counties early in
the week and continue through the tail end of this extended
forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the 17/12z TAF update...VFR conditions are expected to
continue to prevail throughout this TAF period. Winds will
generally be out of the southeast and will remain under 10 kts
throughout. CU field to develop this afternoon, otherwise, no
major aviation concerns at this time. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  99  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  98  70  99  69 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  98  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  98  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  98  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
GGG 100  73 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  72  94  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33