618
FXUS64 KSHV 152031 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
331 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Heat advisory headlines continue now through Wednesday at 7pm.
   and likely beyond for short term in the late work week.

 - Rain chances are slight again for Wednesday, but overall
   remain slim to none through the remainder of this week into the
   first half of the weekend as drier air lobes in from the east.

 - Some good news is that the upper level heat ridge will weaken
   while retrograding westward with an upper low drifting westward
   over the northern Gulf. This will provide lowering heights
   aloft, more lift and some increasing rain chances for us.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Added a little slight chance wording for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm in our far eastern parishes and Union county for
this afternoon with some coverage present already in the delta.

/24/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our 2pm temperatures are widely ranging from 91 at Jacksonville
to 98 at Mount Pleasant with partly cloudy skies and southerly
winds. A weak front is approaching the MS River with a range of 60
degree dew points over eastern MS and even lower low to mid 60s
across AL now. This front will edge westward into our area over
the next few days with lowering min RH each afternoon through
Friday. The showers today in our far east will be possible just
west of I-49 for Wednesday with more slight PoPs in the heart of
our area tomorrow.

So this will also help to knock back the Heat Index in the coming
days. Perhaps we can improve the all day and night positioning of
the heat advisory area through the remaining work week with afternoon
blocks of time. Our air temperatures will remain hot in the mid
to upper 90s for most locales through the week, but start to ease
back on the indices late week and weekend. This sprawling surface
air mass extends from a 1028mb core over the mid Atlantic states
and will help to bump the upper level ridge`s core westward and
even weaken it a little down from 600dam over TN on Wednesday to
597dam over AR by Friday.

At the same time, the well advertised upper low over the Gulf is
currently an inverted trough approaching the SE U.S. This feature
will close off over FL by early Friday and move offshore, farther
out into the Gulf. So it will take time to slide across the Gulf,
but the GFS and ECMWF deepen this low to 584dam by early next
week. The GFS is much closer for us with a core south of New
Orleans, while the ECMWF expands the core over the eastern Gulf.
The remaining upper ridge in our neck of the woods will further
meet it`s demise down to 591dam over the lone Star State by this
time next week as we put a bow on Summer 2026 with the westerlies.

So all of this will boost our rain chances with less subsidence
and help to cool the hot temps back closer to average. The trend
continues peaking ahead to next Friday as a bowling ball at 565dam
swings across the middle MS River Valley. This will bring our
best coverage of rainfall at that time, until then isolated
activity falls off for this weekend and picks up again early next
week with that Gulf upper which low brings back richer dew points
for rain making in the diurnal realm for not only us, but much of
the deep south. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 15/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed across the region this afternoon,
and will linger before diminishing early this evening. Isolated
convection may develop this afternoon mainly across portions of N
LA/Srn AR, but low confidence precludes VCTS mention in the
ELD/MLU terminals attm. Some cirrus may advance NW into the area
later this afternoon/tonight, but otherwise, SKC will prevail,
before another scattered cu field develops by late morning across
the region. Some patchy FG/LIFR cigs may again develop near LFK
around daybreak Wednesday, but should be less than what was
observed this morning, with any FG/low cigs lifting/scattering out
by 14Z. SSW winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become Light SE/Lt
and VRB after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  98  77  97 /   0  20   0   0
MLU  76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  98  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  76  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  76 100  75 100 /   0  20   0   0
LFK  75  95  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15