023
FXUS64 KSHV 141808
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1208 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Above normal temperatures through early next week will make for
   unseasonably warm afternoons and mild overnights.

 - Despite increasing humidity, a combination of warm
   temperatures, dry fuels, and breezy winds will keep conditions
   favorable for wildfires through the weekend.

 - A pattern change late next week will bring an increasing chance
   for heavy rainfall and possibly severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The mid and upper level pattern across the CONUS this afternoon
features an expansive ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and
Great Plains, with longwave troughs located on both the upstream
and downstream flanks, one closed and positively tilted along the
West Coast and the other east of the Mississippi River through the
Eastern Seaboard. Near the surface, high pressure extends over
much of the SE CONUS, with influence extending into the TN Valley
and into the Deep South. Arguably, the most impactful cyclone is
located well into the Canadian Prairies, north of the polar jet
that roughly skirts along the US/Canada border.

With the above pattern in mind, it`s another quiet and warm day
across the Four State Region as the local area remains influenced
just enough by the mid/upper level ridge and sfc high pressure
centered to the east. The scattered afternoon cu field will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating this evening, yielding a
mostly clear sky through the overnight period. Near-term model
guidance is hinting at widespread fog development over the area
tonight and early Saturday morning, and despite increasing
moisture in the low levels in response to southerly return flow
off the Gulf, there does appear to be enough evidence of a
pressure gradient between the sfc high to the east and weak
troughing near the OK Panhandle to keep winds elevated just enough
overnight to prevent widespread fog. The greatest chance will be
over far southern zones where the gradient and associated sfc
winds look lightest. Patch fog is still likely to develop outside
of this highlighted area in susceptible areas (ie., low-lying
areas, areas in immediate vicinity of a water source or near a
prescribed burn etc).

The pattern hardly budges on Saturday with high pressure aloft
lending to large scale subsidence over the region and another day
of above average temperatures. A weak perturbation rounding the
top of the ridge over the Southern Plains during the day will help
develop of weak sfc low in the vicinty of the Red River along the
TX/OK border which will keep the pressure gradient tight enough
to elevate winds again Saturday, similar to Friday. While
increasing low level moisture will keep min RH values closer to 50
percent, overall conditions for fire starts and spreads will
remain favorable.

By Sunday, the mid/upper level ridge will begin to break
down/dampen some over the Four State Region in response to a
strengthening trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Region, while it at the same time in starts to amplify along the
Rockies in response to a deepening closed low over the Great Basin
vicinity. While the overall atmosphere is likely to become
somewhat unstable across the region on Sunday, the absence of any
forcing for ascent, combined with enough lingering ridge influence
will make for yet another dry and warm day featuring above normal
temperatures where mid 80s for many locations near and south of
I-20 appear very probable.

Things begin to slowly change beginning early next week.
Confidence is currently high in the Great Basin/Southern CA closed
low ejecting NE into Central Rockies on Monday, supported in
both the deterministic and most cluster analysis solutions. In
response to the shortwave, lee cyclogenesis will take place across
E CO/W KS, with frontal boundaries developing in association.
This will yield a very low chance for a few showers or
thunderstorms by Monday afternoon but without the aid of any
synoptic scale feature, confidence remains low and will continue
with an overall dry forecast. By Tuesday, the overall dynamics
continue east and well to the north of the local area. It does
appear that at least some weak sfc troughing along what is left of
the cold front will work its way into the area. This could help
make for a slightly better chance for isolated to perhaps
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon. Most
guidance is not biting on the idea, likely given weak to
potentially absent forcing.

After this system moves well to the E/NE of the region, all eyes
turn to the west where another longwave, closed area of low
pressure will develop once again in the general southern CA/Great
Basin area. This closed low will be able to push much deeper
subtropical moisture into the area, via SW flow aloft as ridging
develops on its downstream side. Current cluster analysis
solutions are in excellent agreement with the development of this
longwave trough, however, much uncertainty still remains in its
actual placement, with some solutions having it develop and linger
in the Southern CA/Great Basin area and others just offshore the
CA Coast. This uncertainty in placement will have impacts to our
region; namely in how and where it will shape the ridge
downstream, which could shield the region from the deepest
moisture, at least initially. Oftentimes, these types of lows are
very slow to become progressive, and this is currently evident.
That said, numerous perturbations will be ejecting NE from its
base and into the Southern Plains. This is sure to eventually make
for increasing rain and thunderstorm chances somewhere across the
Four State Region. Right now, the Thursday- Friday timeframe
appears most probable, beginning in northern and western zones and
eventually shifting east along an associated cold front as the
trough finally shows sign of some progression. While there is no
real benefit to speculating which model or groups of ensemble
solutions are correct at this point in time, taking the high
confidence of the overall pattern change into account, there does
appear to be an looming heavy rain and potential severe setup at
the tail end of the forecast period of just beyond.

23


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

For the 14/18z TAFs...scattered cloud cover will continue through
the day with southerly winds staying steady around 8-10 kts. Winds
will stay elevated overnight and hold off fog development for most
areas tomorrow morning. Increased low-level moisture over the past
few days could allow some low ceilings to develop around daybreak
that will lift over the following few hours. Winds tomorrow will
stay around 10 kts coming from the southwest. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  80  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  82  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  57  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  59  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...57