301
FXUS64 KSHV 141035
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
535 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - The ongoing heat wave to persist through the weekend with near
   triple-digit high temperatures.

 - Rain chances will remain virtually non-existent under this very
   stagnant pattern as convection is deflected around the ridge.

 - Worsening drought conditions to continue through this increasingly
   hot and dry regime.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

An upper-level ridge centered across the north-central gulf coast
will continue to migrate northwest, becoming centered over the
ArkLaTex by Friday evening, remaining anchored across the
ArkLaTex into the Southern Plains through the remainder of the
forecast period. The result will be a continuation of hot
temperatures nearing or slightly exceeding 100 degrees each day
through the middle of next week. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for the entire ArkLaTex through the weekend as heat index
values are forecast to exceed 105 degrees. Additionally, this
stagnant hot and dry pattern will result in worsening drought
conditions.

At the surface, a nearly stationary high across the gulf will
continue to bring southerly winds to the region. The stronger
daytime winds, up to 10 mph with higher gusts, can be expected
across east and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma.
The combination of dry conditions and the increased winds will
lead to the possibility of wildfires across these areas through
the weekend.

Otherwise, models continue to suggest a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible on Tuesday afternoon as a weak surface
boundary drifts south across the region. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Seeing some MVFR cloud cover across NE TX into NW LA moving north
and east which will constitute TEMPO MVFR ceilings through 15z or
so this morning across most terminals. Otherwise VFR conditions
will return by late morning, continuing through the afternoon into
the evening hours. Given the low level pressure gradient, did re-
introduce MVFR ceilings in the 06-10z timeframe overnight across
our NE TX terminals as well as the SHV terminal. May see some SSW
wind gusts today across our NE TX terminals with speeds upwards of
18kts.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  78 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ 100  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
TXK 100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
ELD 100  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR 100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 102  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
LFK 100  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13