993
FXUS64 KSHV 040552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

 - Showers will gradually taper off through the daytime on Sunday,
   with a 40% to 60% chance of greater than 0.25 inch (mostly
   south of I-20) by Monday.

 - Drier air will warm up/cool down more efficiently as it
   returns through most of the rest of the week with some
   temperature maximums/minimums in the lower 90s/lower 60s
   respectively.

 - Rain chances return gradually by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Post-frontal isentropic upglide remains as the primary weather
influence of the day with some troughing that moves coastward
overnight. Drier air will filter in by Sunday night into Monday.
This drier air will boost efficient heating/cooling (dew points in
the 50s) for a warming trend through Thursday with above average
temperature maximums in the lower 90s. A preview of regular Fall
weather still continues at night with temperature minimums in the
lower 60s/upper 50s by the middle of the week. Remaining WPC QPF
values range at 0.25-0.75 inches in an increasing gradient south
of I-20 as a result of this week`s expected activity. Long-range
guidance suggests a return of wet weather with increasing
convective potential thanks to a developing trough in
northwesterly flow that exits the Intermountain West and
eventually ejects northeast once again. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Beginning the 06z TAF period with a myriad of ceilings ranging IFR
to VFR and just about everything in between along with spotty
showers near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor. As we go through
the night, feel like anything above IFR ceiling wise will become
IFR and we should see an uptick in convection, especially near and
to the southeast of the I-30 Corridor which will encompass most,
if not all of our terminal locations. Have trended ceilings, and
weather this way pre-sunrise and continued this through mid to
late morning for the I-20 terminals and by afternoon at the LFK
terminal. Should see ceilings quickly improve once we lose the
precipitation from northwest to southeast with drier air quickly
infiltrating our region but that improvement in ceilings should
begin by late morning/early afternoon at the TXK/ELD terminals,
and more likely afternoon for the TYR/GGG/SHV and MLU terminals
with LFK not improving to VFR conditions until late
afternoon/early evening on Sunday. Look for mostly northeast winds
near 10kts with an occasional higher gust at times overnight and
through the daytime hours on Sunday.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  66  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
MLU  87  66  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
DEQ  87  58  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  84  61  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  86  61  85  57 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  83  66  83  63 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  83  64  84  61 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  83  68  86  66 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13