082
FXUS64 KSHV 141115
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Above average temperatures will continue through the remainder
   of this week with persistent ridging in place.

 - Both the upper-level ridge and sfc ridge will gradually shift
   eastward by the end of the week through this weekend.

 - The resulting pattern shift will usher a longwave trough and a
   cold front into the mid-section of the country by Saturday with
   the potential for severe weather across parts of our region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper-level ridge continues to build deeper across our region
through mid-week with very warm temperatures still averaging some
10 degrees above normal for afternoon highs. Beyond Wednesday, the
center of the ridge axis will begin to shift to our east, but very
warm temperatures will persist through the end of the week as the
low-level flow becomes more southerly. The return of southerly sfc
winds will begin to signal a major pattern shift by this weekend
as the departing ridge pushes along the eastern seaboard. In the
meantime, very dry conditions will prevail and further extend our
ongoing streak without appreciable rainfall to over 3 weeks for
the majority of the region.

By the end of this week into the first half of the weekend, the
major changes referenced above are expected to unfold with the
first significant longwave trough of this fall season arriving
across the Plains. An increasingly unstable atmosphere is likely
to precede the ejecting trough and associated cold front, while
progs also indicate a potent shortwave tracking eastward along
the Middle Red River Valley from Saturday afternoon through the
overnight hours Saturday night. It is generally along this area
encompassing roughly our northern half (along and north of I-20)
where the greater threat of severe weather appears to be confined.
The finer details of this severe weather potential remain somewhat
elusive this far out in the forecast, but expect more refinement
to the forecast as we move closer to this weekend.

Convection is expected to exit the region early on Sunday in wake
of the advancing trough and cold front. Slightly milder conditions
will follow during the latter half of the weekend on Sunday before
another warming trend commences thereafter with the return of more
upper-level ridging by early next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For the 14/12z TAF period...VFR conditions will remain across the
region, with a few afternoon CU. Winds will range from
light/variable to ENE between 5 to 10 mph.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  89  58  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  92  60  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  90  59  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  91  60  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20