604
FXUS64 KSHV 222326 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - This weekend will be mostly dry, while temperatures warm back
   into the middle to upper 90s, although with much less humidity
   than has been the case lately.

 - Next week is shaping up to be more unsettled, with daily
   showers and storms beginning Tuesday, as well as below average
   high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Across northern zones of the ArkLaTex, the passage of this week`s
"cold front" is becoming quite apparent in pleasantly dropping dew
points under sunny skies. A warm afternoon with highs in the 90s is
still in store, but conditions will be noticeably less muggy. The
last impulse of showers and storms continues across the Toledo Bend
region on the Texas-Louisiana state line, and diurnal heating may
kick up additional storms this afternoon. What storms develop are
expected to stay along the southern boundary of the SHV CWA, if not
out of the area altogether.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s
north and lower 70s south. As temperatures drop under clearing
skies, patchy fog development will be possible, especially in
southwestern zones which remain relatively saturated. Saturday will
be generally dry and quiet, and warmer than today, as temperatures
aim for the mid to upper 90s. The only exception to areawide calm is
a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms just barely grazing the
Sam Rayburn reservoir area in Angelina National Forest. Otherwise,
the weekend will remain quiet and warm, with more sites taking aim
at the upper 90s Sunday, potentially continuing this warming trend
into early next week. The hint of relief will be that the drier
airmass in the wake of the frontal passage should keep humidity in
check, and it is not looking like it should be necessary to issue
any heat products.

Long range guidance continues to depict a developing system
advancing southward on northwest flow aloft and swinging another
front into the ArkLaTex early next week, but the evolving forecast
has slowed down the arrival of resultant thunderstorms. As of this
writing, only our southeast Oklahoma zones look to expect much, if
any, storms on Monday, with the more substantial push arriving
during the day Tuesday. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook is already
highlighting northern portions of the ArkLaTex for the possibility
of flash flooding on Tuesday. Aside from short-lived breaks in the
weather, rainfall chances continue for much of the week ahead. This
will moderate temperatures considerably, with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, making for a cooler-than-average last week of August
for the Four State Region.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Convection has completely died down already on this early evening
with very little additional anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds are mainly light (5 to 10 mph) and from the E or NE
currently and will be trending to light and variable overnight. By
mid to late morning tomorrow, winds will again pick up from the
north at 6 to 12 mph). Some very patchy and shallow fog is
possible across the region around and shortly after daybreak
tomorrow, but odds of sub-VFR conditions at any TAF sites are too
low to include in those forecasts yet. Otherwise, anticipated
skies trending toward mostly clear overnight with more few to
scattered high-based cumulus developing during the day tomorrow.
All in all, the next 24 hours should be VFR conditions across the
large majority of our coverage area. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  70  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  94  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  70  96  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  71  94  71  97 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...50