268
FXUS64 KSHV 131756
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Dry and warm conditions will continue through the majority of
   the workweek, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

 - Rainfall will return going into the weekend, with the first
   substantial chance of rain in weeks for most of the ArkLaTex.

 - A chance of severe weather is possible for our northern zones
   Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The next several days will see a continuation of our well-above
average temperatures and persistently dry conditions across the
ArkLaTex, thanks to an area of high pressure which isn`t going
anywhere in a hurry. This afternoon sees said high associated with a
ridge titled northeastward over the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley.
Through the day tomorrow, the ridge will lose its definition while
the high asserts itself and grows, remaining nearly centered over
our neck of the woods with a new ridge axis extending up the Plains
towards southern Canada. By Thursday, guidance suggests the high
finally begins to break, opening up into a ridge and migrating
eastward, pushed by the developing upper level feature which will
finally introduce a true pattern shift from recent weeks.

Throughout, quiet weather conditions will persist, with highs
climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Based on
recent overperformance, trended 1-2 degrees warmer than guidance
today through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday currently appear to
feature a very slight cooling trend, but whether this is due to the
departure of the ridge or just the NBM trending cool remains to be
seen, and may require adjustment as the week progresses. Morning
lows will remain generally in the 50s throughout, with a few upper
50s creeping in north and east.

The aforementioned upper level feature pushing out this week`s ridge
will be a deepening trough over the Intermountain West. As this
system`s closed low ejects eastward over the northern Plains or
southern Canada, the trough will swing a cold front south and east
over the Plains and into the northern zones of the ArkLaTex. The
movement of this weathermaker will bring the first substantial
rainfall chances seen in several weeks for much of the region this
weekend, along with a possibility of severe weather being
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for our northern zones.
These potential impacts remain 6 days out, and will be closely
watched through the course of the week ahead.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the 13/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with a few FEW250 decks and light easterly surface winds.
/16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  60  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  91  61  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16