443
FXUS64 KSHV 071156
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Heat Advisory has been expanded to cover the entire region for
   today with more widespread heat expected.

 - Increased shower and thunderstorm chances for today, although
   they should remain isolated in nature.

 - There is some indication that we could see a pattern change
   towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

As we have mentioned or some time now, it is hot and going to
remain hot. We have expanded our Heat Advisory for today and it
now encompasses the entire region, every single part of it. Why is
it hot? A stubborn ridge aloft is settling in, sitting right on
top of us, and actively shifting its ridge axis further
southwest. This ridging will continue over the next few days,
which means the heat will remain in place for much of the week. To
add to this heavily ridged injury, a remarkably slow-moving,
lethargic frontal boundary is drifting across the mid-south and
should reach our area today. This will produce some lovely
compressional heating - literally squeezing the air to make it
hotter, which will maximize and expand our heat threat. I did
increase temperatures some across our northern zones to account
for this.

Alright, how about a discussion about precipitation, moisture, or
whatever you want to call it. The short and sweet of it is that we
will see daily, diurnal chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Underneath our giant atmospheric dome, we have some
quasi-zonal flow that will continue to steer disturbances
westward. Combined with weaker atmospheric subsidence we should
see some convection. That being said, we will most likely not see
a widespread soaking but rather a localized, hit and miss, and
highly selective set-up.

There is some light at the end of the thermometer. Medium and long
range guidance is suggesting a pattern change by the end of the
week. Another wave of westward propagating vorticity will induce
better rain chances, and the massive ridge keeping us roasting
will finally break down...potentially anyways. It will be
beautifully bifurcated by troughing and an attendant frontal
boundary next weekend. As always, continue to monitor the forecast
as this could change. Otherwise, stay safe, hydrate redundantly
today, and have a wonderful and happy Labor Day! /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, light and variable wind or calm in many
locales under fair skies. Otherwise, NE-SE winds prevail at 5-10KT
for another hot Summer day and some convection along and west of
I-49 as the hot & dry doldrums resume. A weak boundary will allow
for a light NE wind for areas east of I-49. The best chance for
rainfall this afternoon will work slowly westward late day from
mid afternoon along I-49, moving into E TX by early evening and
largely ending with sunset. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  99  76 /  30  20  20   0
MLU 100  75 100  75 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ 102  72 100  71 /  20  20  20   0
TXK  98  75  99  76 /  20  20  20   0
ELD 103  72 101  74 /  20  20  20   0
TYR  98  77  98  76 /  20  20  20   0
GGG  99  75 100  75 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  95  74  95  74 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24