Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
291 FXUS64 KSHV 031134 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 534 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, will increase this morning and spread east across the region through the day along a cold front, exiting the area this evening. - Cooler and drier air will spill east-southeast behind the front, with more seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday. - Another cold front will move through the region Friday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place by week`s end into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 The early morning mosaic radar imagery indicates a narrow line of convection that continues to shift E through Ern OK through Nrn and Cntrl TX, and has accelerated well ahead of the dry line over Wrn OK into the Big Country of WCntrl TX, which has recently been overtaken by a cold front. The latest mesoanalysis still indicates bulk shear of 45-50kts from N TX into SE OK, with MLCapes ranging from 1000-1500 J/Kg, with this environment expected to maintain the ongoing convection before additional weakening occurs. The various short term progs have been in good agreement with the ongoing convection entering McCurtain County OK within the next hour or so, eventually spreading into our extreme NE TX counties by 09Z, while making steady progress E through the remainder of the day as large scale forcing increases just ahead of the longwave trough axis that will traverse the Srn Plains. Thus, an increase in convection strength and coverage should occur later this morning through the afternoon, with MLCapes again increasing ahead of the convection from Deep E TX through much of NCntrl LA/Srn AR with the onset of diurnal heating. Already seeing some scattered -SHRA development early this morning well ahead of the convection from Deep E TX/Wrn LA N into SW AR along a zone of weak isentropic ascent, with the 00Z HREF suggesting that this will continue which would help to limit the extent of increased instability as the convection arrives to these areas. However, bulk shear of 30-40kts will persist within the convective development zone along the axis of gradually increasing instability, such that isolated strong to severe storms may develop by mid to late morning through the afternoon as the zone of greatest ascent spreads NE along the base of the ejecting trough axis. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds and a non- zero threat of an isolated tornado will be possible, before the storms quickly shift E of the area by mid to late evening. QPF amounts of 0.5-1.5+ inches still looks like a good bet areawide through this evening, before another prolonged period of dryness commences in wake of our cold frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will begin to spill ESE into the region with the fropa later today/tonight, cooling temps back down to near the daily norms by Wednesday. While a zonal flow aloft will return beneath the departing upper trough passage Wednesday, the flow will become SW by Thursday ahead of the next shortwave trough that will traverse the Plains S into OK/N TX. The GFS is quite bullish in returning a deep moisture fetch NE into E TX/N LA Thursday afternoon and evening, but is the outlier though while developing scattered -SHRA over these areas ahead of the trough. Did tone down the chance NBM pops to slight chance Thursday afternoon/night, but still can`t rule out a few sprinkles along the main trough axis to our N over SE OK/SW AR Thursday night. This next trough will reinforce a reinforcing cold front through the area Friday, which will help to spill even cooler temps back into the region through the upcoming weekend. While the various medium range guidance has backed off on deep longwave troughing digging through the area early next week, they do maintain seasonal temps but dry conditions (with low RH`s, although a considerable spread in the synoptic pattern is evident amongst the 00Z medium range guidance by this time. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 For the 03/12Z TAF period, a cold front will move across E TX between 12Z-15Z and across the remainder of the terminals from 18Z-00Z. SHRA and TSRA conditions to accompany the front. IFR/LIFR ceilings possible this morning ahead of the front, increasing to MVFR/VFR during the afternoon. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots ahead of the front to become northwest 5 to 10 knots behind the front this afternoon, relaxing to around 5 knots overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected areawide after 04/00Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening across the region, for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 54 73 50 / 100 0 0 0 MLU 82 56 74 48 / 100 80 0 0 DEQ 76 50 73 46 / 90 0 0 0 TXK 74 52 73 46 / 100 0 0 0 ELD 78 51 73 44 / 100 20 0 0 TYR 76 52 74 52 / 90 0 0 0 GGG 75 51 73 48 / 100 0 0 0 LFK 77 52 76 49 / 100 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...05