773
FXUS64 KSHV 181217
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
717 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the Ark-La-Tx
   Saturday afternoon and evening, clearing out by Sunday morning.

 - Seasonal temperatures will make themselves known on Sunday
   afternoon.

 - Subsequent weak cold fronts will mess with temperatures a bit
   through the work week, but highs look to stay just above
   normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

There is still uncertainty on how this week`s weather headline
will play out tomorrow. The current thinking is that the driving
upper-level trough will move into the Southern Great Plains midday
on Saturday. The associated frontal boundary will make its way
eastward through the Ark-La-Tx during the evening and overnight
hours. Where uncertainty still remains is in the timing and storm
mode of this line. Most models are concluding that impacts for our
CWA will begin around mid afternoon and last until around
midnight. One deviation from this timeline is the NAMNST with a
slower arrival time and overall propagation speed, so exact
timing could vary slightly. There is also some uncertainty
regarding storm mode. Damaging winds seem to be the most likely
hazard with this line but some CAM solutions have discreet cells
preceding the line. This scenario could result in higher damaging
hail and tornado threats in addition to the high winds from the
line. In addition, models are also suggesting that morning
convection in the region could be at play, which would limit later
destabilization and impact overall storm severity. It`s also
worth mentioning that this line of storms will carry a heavy rain
threat as well. Probabilistic guidance has increased confidence
that more of the region could see rainfall accumulations up to and
exceeding 1" by midday Sunday. Urban and low-lying areas could
see a risk of flash flooding from this rain, especially in heavy
downpours.

Temperatures following the front`s exit early Sunday morning will
be beautifully average for this time of year, with much of the
region seeing highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures this low
unfortunately look to be limited to Sunday as southerly flow kicks
off another weak warming trend for the beginning of next week.
Long range model guidance is hinting at a few weak cold fronts
that will move through the region and help keep temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s. One of these fronts that is expected
Tuesday has been increasingly accompanied by some scattered
rainfall compared to previous runs. While it may not be enough to
stave off drought, it should help keep temperatures relatively under
control through the long term period.

/57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the 18/12Z TAF period, major changes are expected over the
course of the next 24 hours. This will include the threat of
strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a deep trough
and a cold front advancing into the region during the latter half
of the TAF period. Ahead of this convection, look for cigs to
lower into the MVFR range at most terminals with brief IFR/LIFR
cigs possible in East Texas through mid to late morning. These
lower cigs will gradually lift back toward low VFR status just
prior to convection arriving during the early afternoon across our
NW terminals (KTYR, KGGG, KTXK) and shortly thereafter at KSHV,
KLFK, KELD, and KMLU by mid to late afternoon. Increasing S/SW
winds between 10-15 kts are expected in advance of the cold front
with higher gusts upwards of 20-25 kts, potentially much higher
invof of strong to severe convection by this afternoon and into
this evening. Convection should begin to exit NW sites by around
19/00Z, but will linger farther south and east through 19/06Z
before diminishing with fropa through the end of the TAF period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through
this evening with strong to severe thunderstorms expected ahead
of a cold front, potentially marking our first widespread severe
weather threat of this fall season.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  60  74  51 /  70  70   0   0
MLU  90  61  74  46 /  50  90   0   0
DEQ  82  49  70  42 /  90  40   0   0
TXK  86  54  73  48 /  80  60   0   0
ELD  86  54  71  44 /  70  90   0   0
TYR  84  56  73  50 /  80  40   0   0
GGG  87  56  73  48 /  80  60   0   0
LFK  88  59  77  48 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19