575
FXUS64 KSHV 021155
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

 - Ongoing rains will linger and redevelop across northeast Texas
   into southeast Oklahoma and south Arkansas through most of the
   daytime on Friday.

 - An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (and flooding
   potential) can`t be ruled out across portions of east Texas
   into south Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma.

 - Temperatures will remain near/below-normal as a result of wet
   weather into early next week (maximums of mid-to-upper 80s on
   average).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The troughing responsible for our currently wet weather pattern
continues to fill and weaken as anticipated while it stretches
across the Southern Great Plains. Attendant and coincident to this
troughing is a frontal boundary that will maintain the bulk of
multi-day rain chances across the Four State Region. Short-range
guidance continues to suggest the next rounds of convection
maximizing in the next 12-24 hours from extra lift and moisture
collecting along the approaching frontal boundary. While daytime
heating will play a role in building instability, background
vorticity advection will maintain ample convective potential for
multiple rounds of precipitation. With the bulk of expected
precipitation falling in our western and northern zones,
isentropic upglide is expected to be the main driver of
precipitation along and behind the slow-moving frontal boundary as
it shifts southward through the day on Saturday. Post-frontal
clearing is expected to begin its impacts later on into Monday
with 24-hour probabilities of precipitation totals over 0.5 inch
increasing to over 40% south of I-49 on Sunday.

Long-range guidance suggests a slight pause or break of the wet
weather pattern by the middle of next week as post-frontal surface
ridging and quasi-zonal flow aloft sets back in across the Mid-
South. It remains to be resolved if Pacific tropical moisture is
injected back into this flow later next week to restore rain
chances, as some model guidance members may suggest. The combined
activity over the next 72-hours will maintain near-normal
temperatures as a result (maximums/minimums of mid-to-upper
80s/lower 60s). By the middle of next week, post-frontal
temperature minimums may reach the mid-50s north of I-20 for a
sample of Fall weather. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the 02/12Z TAFs, unsettled conditions will continue for east
Texas airspace and nearby terminals. CIGs have dropped to MVFR
levels, with further deterioration through the morning, cratering
at IFR to MVFR during the mid- morning hours. Due to the spotty
nature of these showers, prevailing VCSH at impacted terminals.
Periodic VSBY reductions due to heavy rainfall are possible.
Breaks in the rain look to develop by 03/00Z south and east, ahead
of new rounds of rain north and west. Winds will be variable
throughout, increasing to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts
during the day.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Spotter activation could be needed through Friday morning.
Although some damaging winds can`t be ruled out, flash flooding
will by the primary threat, especially in and near the Flood
Watch. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  84  68 /  40  20  40  50
MLU  93  70  87  68 /  20  20  50  60
DEQ  80  61  77  60 /  80  30  30  20
TXK  81  64  78  62 /  80  20  30  40
ELD  88  64  82  62 /  50  20  30  50
TYR  81  70  80  67 /  80  40  40  50
GGG  85  68  83  66 /  60  30  30  50
LFK  89  71  86  68 /  40  20  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26