544
FXUS64 KSHV 302356
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 - Showers will push into deep east Texas this evening, spreading
   areawide overnight with rainfall chances continuing through
   much of the day Saturday.

 - Scattered rainfall looks to begin tapering off into Halloween
   evening, but spotty showers remain possible.

 - Another round of rainfall and potentially organized
   thunderstorms looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday ahead of
   a potent cold front which will bring a return of more
   seasonable temperatures by mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
A few peeks of sunshine punctuate what is otherwise a mostly cloudy
afternoon across the Four State Region. Highs are taking aim at the
upper 70s and lower 80s, with those sites which see a bit more
sunshine potentially trending a couple degrees higher than guidance.
Skies are expected to fill in to become overcast into the evening
ahead of incoming rainfall, with lows falling into the upper 50s
northeast to low to middle 60s south and west. At the synoptic
level, the emerging shortwave trough will be pushing northeast
across Texas by this evening, pushing showers into the Lufkin area
by shortly after sunset, and spreading rainfall north and east
towards the I-20 and I-49 corridors by midnight, with rainfall
solidly in progress areawide by daybreak.

All eyes are on the rainfall forecast for Halloween night, and the
latest HRRR guidance suggests some optimistic news for our Louisiana
zones. While the greatest chance of rainfall looks to be earlier
Saturday, trending downwards towards evening, spotty scattered
showers will remain possible, especially across our north. Louisiana
and adjacent zones currently look to have the best chance of a break
in the rain for their evening activities, but all the same, having
umbrellas handy would be advisable. A few rumbles of thunder are not
out of the question. A few lingering showers are possible towards
dawn Sunday across our easternmost zones, with a generally dry
second half of the weekend to follow, under the subsident effects of
an area of ridging attempting to define itself over the ArkLaTex
between periods of more active weather.

During our brief respite on Sunday, a deepening longwave trough will
be advancing across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, amplifying as
it does so, to the point of ejecting over the Front range and Plains
by midday Monday, with a pronounced pressure gradient on its
southwestern flank, transitioning the ArkLaTex back into a
southwesterly flow regime aloft, accompanied by southerly surface
winds. The trough looks to continue digging southwards as it pushes
slowly east, swinging a potent cold front across the ArkLaTex during
the day Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is catching up with this timing
progression, introducing rain in earnest from the northwest
beginning Monday evening, with the best chance for a push of more
organized convection during the day Tuesday, with showers coming to
an end late Tuesday, overnight into Wednesday morning. Mostly dry
conditions will follow, though the long range GFS hints that as our
parent trough drifts east, a cutoff low will form over the Gulf
Coast, potentially kicking up a slight chance of showers across our
southeast next Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures look to
return to near-seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 40s and 50s by mid to late next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For the 31/00Z TAF update, gradual degradation of vis/cigs is
likely within the period as a low pressure disturbance shifts
across the airspace, carrying VCSH/-SHRA from west to east
terminals. MVFR cigs will arrive to all terminals after 31/09Z
with IFR/LIFR cigs likely after 31/14Z through most of the rest of
the period. Light easterly surface winds will continue through
the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tomorrow. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  73  63  80 /  50  50  20  20
MLU  63  77  64  80 /  10  30  40  40
DEQ  58  73  57  81 /  20  50  30  10
TXK  61  72  61  80 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  58  73  58  79 /  20  40  40  30
TYR  62  75  63  82 /  40  50  10   0
GGG  61  74  60  81 /  50  60  10  10
LFK  63  78  63  83 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...16