986
FXUS64 KSHV 171123
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Heat Advisories remain today for most of the Four State
   Region, with heat indices ranging from 105 to 108 degrees.


 - Increased cloud cover and convection associated with the
   Northern Gulf tropical wave will move into our southern and
   eastern zones this afternoon, increasing in coverage on Friday
   and Saturday.

 - Locally heavy rainfall will be possible on Friday and Saturday
   with this system, especially across our Louisiana zones south
   of Interstate 20, and adjacent portions of Deep East Texas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Quiet conditions to continue across the Four State region
overnight into the morning hours today, as high pressure at the
surface and aloft remain over the area. This will yield more hot
and humid conditions, with a Heat Advisory remaining in place
over most of the Four State Region. Although this advisory
continues to exclude McCurtain County (OK) and the extreme
western sections of our East Texas counties, those locations will
still see heat indices over 100 degrees today. However, the ridge
will start to erode across the southern and eastern sections of
the Four State Region this afternoon, as the previously mentioned
tropical/easterly wave in the northern Gulf shifts westward from
near the Florida panhandle towards the Louisiana Coast. As the
wave gets closer, cloud cover and bands of convection associated
with it will start to push into the southern and eastern portions
of our forecast area this afternoon into the evening hours.
Short-term guidance suggest the best chance for precip today will
be along and southeast of a line from Toledo Bend to Monroe, LA.

As we move into Friday and Saturday, there still remain some
questions on how this system will evolve. Will it develop more
tropical characteristics?...What track will it take?...How much
rain will it produce? At this time, models don`t seem too bullish
with it becoming a tropical cyclone. This could be because there
remains some uncertainty on if it remains in the Gulf or move
inland across Southern Louisiana. Regardless, this system is still
expected to bring widespread rain chances back into the region,
with the best chances south of the Interstate 30 corridor. Locally
heavy rain remains a concern, especially across Deep East Texas
and our Louisiana zones south of Interstate 20. Please continue to
monitor our forecast as this event unfolds for up-to-date information,
as Flood products could be needed.

Not much has change in the long-term portion of the forecast, as
upper ridging is expected to build across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the weekend into early
next week.  This will result in dry, humid, and hot conditions
returning back across the region. Afternoon temperatures will
range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. More Heat Advisories
will likely be needed, as heat indices are expected to climb
above 105 degrees over the most of the area. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the 17/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will persist largely
uninterrupted aside from brief VSBY reductions, reflected in TEMPO
groups at affected terminals. By mid to late morning, a more
widespread Cu field is expected to develop, persisting through the
afternoon before dissipating after sundown. Rainfall is expected
to increase from the south and east, with KMLU seeing impacts
during the afternoon. Winds will begin south and southwesterly
early, shifting throughout the forecast period to westerly and
eventually northerly, with direction becoming increasingly
variable later in the period at speeds of generally less than 5
kts throughout.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  79  93  77 /   0  10  50  30
MLU  98  77  88  75 /  20  20  70  20
DEQ  95  73  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
TXK  98  77  93  76 /   0   0  20  10
ELD  95  75  92  74 /   0  10  40  20
TYR  95  74  93  75 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  96  76  94  74 /   0  10  40  20
LFK  98  75  90  74 /   0  10  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26