700
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - A backdoor cold front will bring chances for scattered showers
   and thunderstorms to area, especially south of a line from
   Mineola TX, to Shreveport, to Monroe LA, Tuesday afternoon and
   into Tuesday night.

 - Daytime high temperatures will cool back down into the 80s for
   the latter half of the week, but widespread showers and
   thunderstorms are expected to return to much of the forecast
   area Saturday and Sunday.

 - Temperatures are likely to climb back into the lower 90s by
   early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak ridge is still in place over much of the Central CONUS at
the time of writing that will work to suppress most convection.
Even with this suppression, a backdooring cold front could act as
a lifting mechanism for some scattered showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Exact locations are
unknown due to model disagreements and possible lingering outflow
boundary interactions. However, the greatest chance will be
generally along and south of I-20. QPF is generally less than half
an inch with these showers. But slow moving or training showers
could lead to isolated flooding concerns in places. Any rain that
gets going should exit our southern zones just before midnight
Tuesday night.

Slightly cooler air will follow the cold front`s exit on
Wednesday, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper
80s. Temperatures should stay in this range through the rest of
the week despite the strengthening upper-level ridge. This is
partially due to a region of sfc high pressure in the Mid
Atlantic, bringing easterly sfc winds instead of the typical
southerlies. This sfc high is expected to push into the Atlantic
late this week and shift winds southerly again, which will
kickstart moisture advection and warming temperatures going into
next week.

At the same time as this wind shift, the upper-level ridge that
has been at the center of our forecast over recent days will give
way to southwest flow. Several perturbations are likely to move
downstream and bring multiple rounds of showers to the Ark-La-Tx
Friday through Sunday. Confidence is fairly high that there will
be showers, but exact locations are unknown thanks to long-range
model uncertainty. Rain chances remain broad right now for this
reason. Assuming that models can figure out this pattern, we
should be able to narrow down more specifics in the coming days.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For the 02/12z TAF Period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites
this morning. However, models still suggest a line of storms will
develop along a cool front during the TAF period. Current belief
is that this will occur during the afternoon hours. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, along with some gusty winds. Behind the
front, winds will become northeasterly and VFR conditions will
return at most locations, with KLFK being the exception. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through
tonight, spotter activation is not likely at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  72  87  70 /  30  10   0  10
MLU  89  70  85  69 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  91  67  86  67 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  91  69  87  69 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  88  67  85  66 /  20   0  10   0
TYR  95  72  89  71 /  30  20   0  10
GGG  94  72  88  70 /  30  20   0  10
LFK  92  72  87  71 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20