780
FXUS64 KSHV 281116
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Hazardous heat will continue in earnest through Wednesday with
  temperature maximums likely in the upper 90s/lower 100s and
  mostly dry conditions.

- A pattern change begins by Thursday into the weekend, yielding
  a return to near-normal summertime heat (mid-90s) and higher
  chances of rain.

- A summertime frontal boundary is expected by the weekend,
  delivering the potential for cooler-than-normal temperatures
  and maintaining chances of rain across the Ark-La-Tex.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The next 48 hours will be the hottest time period of the week for
the Four State Region as the ridge axis stays in place across the
southern Great Plains. One of the main determinants of the heat
hazard intensity involves the amount of mixing that can occur from
southeasterly winds, and at the moment those winds are expected
to remain light at just 5mph. With little reprieve from the heat
Heat hazard product issuance is likely to continue through
Wednesday at minimum. Medium-range guidance continues to suggest
ridging finally starting to shift westward by the end of the week
and the end of the month. Synoptic-scale flow aloft will gain more
of a meridional orientation as a troughing pattern takes shape
between Atlantic ridging further to our east and Intermountain
ridging to our west later this week. Until then, this meridional
flow will influence a stationary front that will sit across the
lower Mississippi River Valley, introducing the first notable
chances of rain by Thursday afternoon. A return to normal
summertime heat (mid-90s) is likely as a result by this time with
a coinciding increase in the potential for productive rounds of
convection to form in the afternoons with daytime heating. Long-
range guidance continues to suggest an increasing chance of a
summertime frontal boundary that delivers even cooler air by
Saturday (potential for temperatures in the lower 90s) and higher
rain chances through the weekend (especially for eastern zones.

Until then, fairly light southerly winds will still not offer much
relief and dew points are expected to remain mostly in the upper
60s/low-to-mid 70s. Heat indices will range above 105 degrees as a
result, and hazardous heat will be impactful for all groups of
people, not just heat-sensitive groups. Precautions and awareness
are encouraged to continue now against the elevated potential for
heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering
outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside,
checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion in addition to heat stroke.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace but IR
Imagery is showing MVFR cloud cover just west of the LFK and TYR
terminals moving northeast. For the 12z TAF package...did TEMPO
MVFR ceilings for a few hours this morning at the LFK and TYR
terminals but kept all other terminals with a SCT cu field during
the day. Any cu should have dissipated by 00z this evening with
only some high thin cirrus possible overnight.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 100  79 100  78 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  99  75  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
TXK  99  79 101  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  98  77  98  75 /   0   0  20  20
TYR  99  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13