738
FXUS64 KSHV 221641
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1041 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Weak cold front will knock down temperatures today across the
   entire Four State Region but temperatures across our southeast
   half will remain above normal for late November.

 - Next storm system poised to begin impacting our region late
   Sunday Night but especially Monday through Tuesday bringing
   with it at least the potential for heavy rainfall and severe
   storms.

 - Much colder air is poised to infiltrate our region Wed into Thu
   with a chance at freezing overnight temperatures across our far
   northern zones Wed Night and Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level flow will stay relatively zonal ahead of the incoming
low pressure system expected Monday. But tonight and tomorrow will
stay dry with Sunday`s high in the upper 60s and low 70s. Mid-
level moisture will begin to return to the region on Sunday
night. Recent model guidance has shown a slightly slower
progression of the upper-level trough but initial short-range
model solutions have kept rain time of arrival at Monday morning
and lasting through the overnight hours. The main concern at this
time is the flash and urban flooding potential associated with the
rain. The hope is that the recent dryness has set soil up to
absorb much of the rainfall, but paved and low-lying areas will
need to be monitored for pooling water through Monday night. There
is also a risk of severe weather, but this is highly dependent on
co-occurring forcing and instability. Both hazards will be most
likely along and north of the I-30 corridor and will be a major
focus for future forecast packages.


Upon the cold front`s passage late on Tuesday, cooler air and
drier conditions will return to the Ark-La-Tx. Afternoon highs in
the 50s/60s will be the perfect fall conditions for the holiday
on Thursday. Overnight lows will be flirting with freezing for our
northwestern zones, but the worst of the cold will stay to our
north. A hint of the next round of rain looks to be coming late
this period thanks to a longwave trough.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, SKC for most with some SCT stratocu
around 5-6kft and some very low stratus/BR right ahead of our
cool front from Toledo Bend up in N/NE LA with BR at KMLU. NW
winds 5-10KT & few gusts are on tap all day with just some late
day cirrus arriving. Cooler start on Sunday with increasing high
and mid clouds by sunset as our next upper low is on approach,
bringing much convection to our Monday and night. Then below
seasonal cold for our Thanksgiving travels under fair skies. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  52  72  55 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  77  51  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  44  67  49 /   0   0   0  60
TXK  67  49  69  53 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  70  47  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  68  49  70  57 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  70  48  70  54 /   0   0   0  30
LFK  76  48  73  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24