457
FXUS64 KSHV 011105
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
505 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Warm, humid, and drier conditions will return today and
   Monday, before more widespread and wetting rains from a large
   band of showers and thunderstorms overspread the region late
   Monday night through Tuesday.

 - While storm intensities should be weakening late Monday night
   across Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas, the
   threat for isolated strong to severe storms will exist over the
   region Tuesday as they push east along a cold front.

 - Cooler and drier conditions will spill into the area in wake of
   the cold frontal passage for mid and late week, with
   temperatures returning to more seasonal readings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 210 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Local observations are coming into good agreement with short-term
models suggesting that areas of dense fog will be possible across
portions of east and northeast Texas as well as southwest Arkansas
later this morning. Went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for
the above mentioned areas and also included portions of north
Louisiana. /05/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

While the evening water vapor imagery indicates shortwave
troughing having already ejected NE into NE AR and the Lower MS
Valley, isentropic ascent continues to contribute to isolated to
scattered -SHRA redevelopment early this morning across from Lower
Toledo Bend Country across Cntrl LA and SCntrl AR. Deepening drier
air in wake of the trough remains progged to mix E across these
areas through and after daybreak, which should help to taper this
development while the best forcing spreads farther E into MS. In
wake of the rains though, areas of FG have developed across
portions of E TX early this morning, with the FG more patchy
across extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR/NW LA. This should change
though as we approach daybreak as the areas of FG develop farther
E as the -SHRA diminish, although it remains unclear as to how
extensive any dense FG may become, and thus, have held off on a
Dense Fog Advisory for now and will continue to monitor trends
later this morning. Weak isentropic ascent may linger through the
afternoon though over the Ern zones which may aid in continued
isolated -SHRA development, but otherwise, warmer, more humid and
mostly dry conditions will return to the region today as the
morning FG/low clouds gradually lift, potentially giving way to
peaks of sun this afternoon.

Upper ridging will begin to build E and amplify over the Srn
Plains today, ahead of longwave troughing now over the W coast,
which will translate E through the Great Basin this
afternoon/evening, and into the Rockies/Four Corners Region Monday
morning. The return of low cigs is expected late tonight from the
ESE, with the pressure gradient tightening to our W Monday ahead
of leeside cyclogenesis over NE CO, which will lift NE into the
Cntrl Plains allowing the dryline to mix E into WCntrl TX/Wrn OK.
While subsidence beneath the ridging Monday will maintain very
warm and dry conditions, deepening convection will develop along
the advancing dryline through the day Monday, before the attendant
cold front overtakes the bndry and helps to reinforce the
convection E into Cntrl/Ern OK and N TX by Monday evening. While
adequate instability/lapse rates coupled with strong forcing
along the dryline/cold front will favor the threat for strong to
severe convection Monday afternoon over the Srn Plains, these
storms should weaken as they approach the region by/after 06Z
Tuesday. Timing amongst the various medium range guidance remains
consistent with the convective line entering the region
around/after 06Z, while slowly progressing E across the region
overnight through much of the day Tuesday. This timing would favor
the potential for moderate MLCapes developing across the
warm/moist sector Tuesday mainly from Deep E TX across much of LA
and possibly as far N as Srn AR, with adequate shear in the
mostly unidirectional flow contributing to the continued threat
for at least isolated strong to severe storms across these areas,
with locally gusty/damaging winds the primary threat. Widespread
QPF totals of 1-2+ inches still appear a good bet over much of the
area with the next round of rain, before cooler and drier air
begins to spill E in wake of the fropa for the middle and latter
part of the new work week.

While the medium range guidance suggests that a zonal flow will
set up over the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley in wake of the midweek
trough passage, another progressive trough is progged to sweep E
by late week. However, it remains uncertain as to whether enough
low level moisture will return and favor isolated -SHRA
development during the Thursday night-Friday night timeframe. In
any case, temps will remain seasonal through the remainder of the
extended period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For the 01/12Z TAF period, IFR/LIFR conditions across much of the
airspace this morning to gradually improve to low VFR through
mid-morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings to return after 02/06Z. Patchy
light rain and drizzle possible across MLU/ELD through daybreak
this morning. Otherwise, winds light and variable around 5 kts or
less through today to become southeast after 02/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  65  83  67 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  81  64  83  66 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  78  62  82  64 /   0  10  10  90
TXK  79  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  60
ELD  80  62  81  65 /  20  10  10  30
TYR  82  65  85  67 /   0  10  10  70
GGG  81  63  84  67 /   0  10  10  50
LFK  84  64  84  67 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ059-070.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ001-002-
     010-017.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05