165
FXUS64 KSHV 160531
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM this evening,
   with further extension possible as highs in the mid to upper
   90s continue through the remainder of the week and into the
   weekend.

 - Scattered showers and weak storms will be possible across
   eastern portions of the ArkLaTex this afternoon.

 - Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week
   and weekend, followed by more widespread rainfall chances and
   slight relief from the heat early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level ridging over the Deep South and southern Appalachians
will persist through the remainder of the week, gradually
retrograding in the days ahead. By this afternoon, the center of the
upper level high will remain far enough northeast to allow for
scattered showers and weak storms to develop across the ArkLaTex.
Have added or expanded lower end PoPs between 15Z and 00Z to account
for this development, which short range high resolution guidance
indicates will be similar to yesterday`s, confined largely to the
east of the I-49 corridor and quickly diminishing with sundown.
Internal guidance is signaling patchy fog before daybreak,
particularly across deep east Texas, extending to the Toledo Bend
Country and adjacent portions of Louisiana.

As the upper level high continues to assert itself, our late summer
heat will continue, with mid to upper 90s throughout. Will be
maintaining the existing Heat Advisory, which will likely be
extended in future updates. There may be some minor relief as drier
air filters in by late week, noticeably lowering relative humidity
values. However, the heat will remain all the same.

By the end of the weekend, our stubborn ridging will begin to lose
definition, ultimately getting absorbed into upper level steering as
a low takes shape over the northern Gulf, opening to door for an
actual trough to swing south over the Plains and bring a frontal
boundary near enough to generate widespread chances for showers and
storms early next week, as well as an accompanying slight dent in
afternoon highs into the low to middle 90s and overnight lows into
the lower 70s and even upper 60s by the tail end of this extended
forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the 16/06z TAF update...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this TAF period with on caveat, KLFK. I have kept mention
of some lower MVFR clouds towards sunrise on Wednesday as they have
done so almost daily this week, so not sure why today would be
different. Otherwise, thinking we could see some SCT to FEW at 3k
feet overnight for the remaining terminals followed by a SCT deck
around 5k feet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon hours.
Winds will generally be light throughout this period and should
remain out of the south throughout.
/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  77  97  74 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  99  76  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  98  72  98  70 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  98  76  98  74 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  99  74  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  98  77  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
GGG 100  76  99  73 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  96  75  95  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33