364
FXUS64 KSHV 021737
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Increasing showers and thunderstorms late Monday night over
   East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Western
   Louisiana.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will shift east across much of the
   region through the day Tuesday along a cold front, and will
   bring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms,
   before diminishing during the evening.

 - Cooler and drier conditions are expected for mid and late week
   in wake of the frontal passage, with near seasonal
   temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Observational analysis this morning has a deep upper-level trough
over the Rockies. This system will be the focus for incoming weather
across the Central and Southern Plains through the day today,
impacting the Ark-La-Tx overnight tonight. Until then, weak
isentropic lift and some meager instability are keeping some light
showers on radar this morning. Some showers might be too light to
see rain on the ground but a trace has been reported at KSHV by the
time of writing.

The greater push of rain will be coming later tonight as the
previously mentioned cold front pushes into Southeast OK around
midnight tonight. Areas along and northwest of a line generally from
Tyler, TX to De Queen, AR will need to stay Weather Aware between
midnight tonight to daybreak Tuesday, when the front is expected to
push through. The primary hazards overnight will be damaging wind
gusts and flooding from heavy rain but a few tornadoes can`t be
ruled out.

The front will continue to push through the rest of East TX,
Southern AR, and Northwest LA during the day Tuesday. The speed of
the front has rain lingering in our far southeastern zones until
midnight Tuesday night, but there is still some uncertainty on storm
strength. First, the plentiful cloud cover over the region both
today and tomorrow is likely to impede instability development ahead
of the front. But there may be enough heating to allow things to
reintensify during the late morning, even with the cloud cover. For
now, SPC and WPC have highlighted areas not included in today`s
respective outlooks in a marginal risk for severe weather and
flooding to communicate the potential risk tomorrow. These outlooks
are subject to change with future forecast packages.

Fall-like temperatures are expected to follow on the heels of this
front, dropping the region into the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. The
rest of the trough energy should push down into the lower
Mississippi Valley late Thursday/Friday and knock back temperatures
further into the upper 60s. There may be some light rain for some
southern zones during this push, but nothing like what is expected
over the next 36 hours. Long-range models depict quasi-zonal flow
establishing itself Friday and shifting northwesterly with the
southward progression of another low to our north late this weekend.
The GFS solution keeps us dry with plenty of continental air keeping
RH`s low. Should this occur, another period of increased fire
weather concerns may be on the horizon early next week.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the 02/18Z TAFs, BKN MVFR CIGs prevail at this hour, with minor
improvement to lower VFR decks through the afternoon before quickly
descending overnight to MVFR and IFR by daybreak. Showers and storms
are expected to enter area airspace from the northwest after 03/06Z,
spreading south and east towards daybreak and through the morning.
For this forecast package, anticipating SHRA and TSRA impacts to
TXK, KTYR, KGGG, KLFK and KSHV, with further impacts south and east
into forthcoming updates. VSBY impacts from heavy rain are possible,
as well as frequent lightning and localized severe wind gusts.
Southeast winds will continue this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts
possible across our east Texas terminals, remaining elevated
overnight and beginning to shift to westerly with the arrival of the
cold front by the end of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast
Oklahoma, adjacent Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme
Northeast Texas for the potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  68  76  53 /  20  50 100  10
MLU  81  68  82  55 /  10   0  90  80
DEQ  81  65  74  48 /  30  90  90   0
TXK  81  68  74  51 /  30  70 100   0
ELD  81  65  78  49 /  20  20 100  10
TYR  84  68  75  52 /   0  70  90   0
GGG  83  68  75  51 /  10  60 100   0
LFK  84  68  78  50 /  20  30 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...26