044
FXUS64 KSHV 171507
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A weak shear axis is slowly diffusing this morning across Union
county/parish and northern Ouachita. This axis has been
responsible for heavy and training rainfall across the
aforementioned zones, with crest unit streamflow parameters
lighting up just east of the Ouachita parish line. Only one hour
is left on the present flash flood warning, and that will be
allowed to expire on time as the axis continues to diffuse. That
being said, a weak surface vorticity axis drifting north along
I-49 this afternoon will be the center of focus for afternoon
convection once again. Aside from extending PoPs just a little
further west to account for recent hi-res, no other changes are
needed at this time. High temperatures are still expected to end
up in the low and mid 90`s this afternoon.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

While the early morning water vapor imagery indicates extensive
drying in wake of the upper trough axis which has drifted E just
offshore the TX coast across Acadiana and into Wrn MS, scattered
convection has been persistent in its development early this
morning, in an area of H925-850 theta-e ridging in VC of the H700
trough. The HRRR continues to struggle with this convection,
although the 00Z NAM is consistent with its run Monday morning
(although a bit exaggerated) with its development, with the HREF
also consistent with additional development persisting through
this morning as it drifts/tails farther N into SW AR, before
drifting E with the mid-level trough axis during the afternoon.
Did raise and expand the base NBM pops this morning a bit farther
W to near TXK and areas to the N in SW AR, with additional
isolated to scattered convection possible farther S from Lower
Toledo Bend Country into Cntrl/NE LA by afternoon closer to the
old trough/shear axis. Since some of the hi-res guidance maintains
some isolated convection across the Ern zones by/shortly after
sunset this evening, did insert slight chance pops for these
areas for early evening, although quiet conditions are expected
areawide through the overnight hours.

Of course, with the diminishing convection today, stronger
insolation will lead to hotter temps across the region, with
limited mixing of dewpoints resulting in heat indices ranging from
100-105 degrees. The approach of a shortwave trough entering the
Cntrl Plains Wednesday will reinforce a weak sfc front ESE across
OK into the Mid MS Valley, before eventually stalling during the
evening in VC of the Mid Red River Valley into Ern OK/NW AR. The
approach of this front will result in a tightening pressure
gradient over the Srn Plains tonight, resulting in increased
mixing such that min temps should remain some 2-4+ degrees warmer
than what has been observed in the rain-cooled air as of late.
While a lead MCS should develop ahead of this trough/front later
this afternoon/evening over KS, before translating ESE into Nrn OK
later tonight, no sensible impacts should be observed across our
region other than an increase in elevated cigs, before the
convection diminishes around daybreak Wednesday as it enters the
Ozarks. Additional scattered convection should develop along the
front later Wednesday afternoon across Cntrl/NE OK/NW AR, which
may help to convectively reinforce the front SE before it
eventually stalls Wednesday night just NNW of the region. Attm,
the latest guidance suggests that the majority of the convection
will wait until after 00Z Thursday before entering the NW zones,
but the NBM slight chance pops across McCurtain County OK and the
adjacent SW AR counties still looks good. Isolated convection
also can`t be ruled out Wednesday afternoon over Cntrl LA, where
the old shear axis will linger from SE TX across SW/Cntrl LA into
Cntrl/Srn MS.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

As was discussed in the Short Term discussion, convection should
be ongoing along our weak sfc front Wednesday evening over SE
OK/Wrn AR, which should slow as it enters the higher terrain of
the Ouachitas, while also coinciding with the best forcing aloft
gradually weakening once the main trough axis begins to shift E
across AR and into the MS Valley. However, some of the latest
guidance suggests that the convection may shift farther SE into NE
TX/SW AR Wednesday night as it continues to weaken, with low to
mid chance pops expanding S to the I-30 corridor of NE TX and to
the AR/LA border. The potential for mesoscale bndrys as well as
weak forcing along the subtle trough axis should help to focus the
development of isolated to scattered convection Thursday
especially with the onset of daytime heating/increased
instability, before diminishing by/shortly after sunset. The
increased cloud cover and outflow propagation may also take a
degree or two off of the heat Thursday afternoon, but this will be
short-lived as upper ridging amplifies and expands E from the Srn
Plains Thursday into the Mid/Lower MS Valley Friday and Saturday.
Thus, the potential for the hottest temps so far this year will
result in an expansive area of above normal heat in the mid 90s
especially across SW AR/N LA/Deep E TX, although isolated
convection can not be ruled out during the afternoon across
portions of Deep E TX and Cntrl LA where a residual weakness aloft
may linger. Limited mixing of dewpoints alongside with an increase
in the heat will result in heat indices nearing Advisory criteria
mainly across portions of SW AR/N LA Friday/Saturday, although
the center of the ridge remains progged to shift farther E into
the OH/TN Vallies and Mid-Atlantic for the latter half of the
weekend.

Even with the position of the ridge center well NE of the region
for the latter half of the weekend, the above normal heat will
persist through the remainder of the extended, but may be
slightly offset by a gradual increase in afternoon seabreeze
convection given the deep SSE mean flow on the backside of the
ridge. The afternoon seabreeze could impact areas of Deep E
TX/Cntrl LA Sunday afternoon, before expanding farther N to the
I-20 corridor by Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the 17/12Z TAF update, active -TSRA/VCTS convection continues
across KELD and KMLU with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs lingering across the
eastern airspace until 17/15Z, clearing through the end of the
period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  95  77 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  91  74  93  75 /  50  20  10  20
DEQ  92  73  91  71 /  10  10  20  40
TXK  95  77  94  74 /  20   0  10  40
ELD  92  74  93  72 /  40  10  10  30
TYR  92  76  92  75 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  92  75  92  75 /   0   0  10  20
LFK  93  76  93  75 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16