109
FXUS64 KSHV 291741
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - Fire weather will remain the primary forecast concern through
   Wednesday given dry fuels and increasing winds.

 - Moderate to locally heavy rainfall then becomes a concern late
   in the week and through the weekend with isolated flash
   flooding possible before soils can absorb the moisture.

 - A Marginal Severe Weather Risk will accompany the increasing
   rain chances on Thursday, where thunderstorms may pose the
   threat for damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

This afternoon, the mid and upper levels feature an elongated,
positively tilted ridge of high pressure extending from East Texas
through the Midwest and Eastern Great Lakes. Loosely organized
troughing is noted downstream of this feature around the FL
Panhandle, meanwhile upstream from the ridge lies a much more
noteworthy trough of low pressure over the Desert SW with the
remnants of Hurricane Polo being ingested into the broader scale
cyclonic flow on its eastern flank. Near the surface, a weak and
generally stationary boundary still lingers across Central OK into
East Texas, Southern LA and along the Gulf Coast. An expansive
area of high pressure exists to its north and northeast,
encompassing much of the US east of the Rocky Mountains.

Another hot and dry day to prevail through the remainder of this
Tuesday, with fire weather being the main forecast concern. While
criteria is not being met for any fire weather headlines, winds
across East Texas this afternoon will be periodically gusty and
while the corresponding minimum RH values will remain around 40
percent, very dry soils and fuels will make for easy fire starts
and fast fire spreads. Lower minimum RH values this afternoon
across the rest of the CWA will also make for very easy fire
starts and rapid fire spreads despite lighter winds. High
temperatures to round off in the low to mid 90s this afternoon as
ridging aloft provides large scale subsidence and high pressure
keeps conditions tranquil near the surface.

The pattern will begin to change rather quickly by Wednesday, at
least just upstream of the CWA. Deterministic, ensemble, and
available hi-res guidance continue to trend towards the slower
advancement of rain chances. As the Desert SW trough begins to
progress eastward, it will contain abundant tropical-Pacific
moisture with it and is expected to induce lee cyclogenesis across
the Southern Rockies or OK Panhandle. As associated frontal
boundaries then develop on Wednesday, an overall slow progression
of the system as a whole will keep widespread and heavy rainfall
chances to the west of the Four State Region. As such, the WPC ERO
has trended back, as the first real appreciable chance for
moisture reaching the area now looks to be very early on Thursday.
One more hot day will ensue, with highs on Wednesday in the 90s
and dewpoints rising back into the 70s as southerly winds ramp up
and become gusty at times. Given that fuels and soils remain
critically dry, and that winds become gusty out of the south at
20-25 kts in many locations, a Fire Danger Statement has been
issued for Wednesday areawide.

A widespread area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will
approach SE OK and portions of NE TX early Thursday. With the
upper level trough beginning to dampen, it appears that moisture
will decrease along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it makes
very slow eastward progress through the day (unless a shortwave
can round the base of the trough and induce a surface wave along
the front). Nevertheless, East Texas and SE OK are likely to see
rainfall. Initial runoff before soil absorption could pose a
threat for some localized flash flooding, along with urban
flooding which is highlighted by WPC in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. An isolated severe weather threat may also
accompany the frontal boundary and areas just ahead of it, with
damaging wind from wet microbursts being the main concern given
the lack of appreciable shear. The SPC has highlighted this area
in a Marginal risk. Increasing rain chances and more cloud cover
will help knock high temperatures down a few degrees, mostly west
of the I-49 corridor on Thursday. Areas east will see another hot
day.

Provided that the upper low gets rapidly absorbed into the
stronger belt of westerly flow across the northern half of the US
on Friday, and what`s left of upper level support is a loosely
organized weak trough of low pressure over TX, the frontal
boundary is expected to have a hard time making eastward progress
on Friday. Rainfall chances will still increase throughout the day
in tandem with daytime heating along the front and unstable
southerly flow ahead of it. This general trend will carry through
the weekend, with a weakening frontal boundary and an unstable
airmass ahead of it redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, all
possibly enhanced by northward moving Gulf moisture by the end of
the forecast period. Temperatures this weekend will take a
noticeable tumble, with some areas struggling to reach 80 degrees
by Sunday and lows dipping into the 60s. Suffice it to say, at
least somewhat of a quick taste of Fall looks like a decent
possibility by early next week as the front finally clears.

Kovacik


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For the 18z TAF cycle...VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast cycle with the exception of tempo MVFR ceilings
possible across TYR/LFK near daybreak as southerly flow advects low-
level moisture northward. Southeast winds up to 10 knots today to
increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts on Wednesday.
/05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  74  93 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  68  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  60
TXK  71  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  67  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  72  94  74  91 /   0   0  10  70
GGG  70  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  50
LFK  71  92  73  91 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...05