807
FXUS64 KSHV 300840
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
340 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

 - Temperatures in the low to mid 90s will continue through the
   weekend and into early next week.

 - Isolated rain chances are expected through this weekend and
   become slightly more expansive next week.

 - Little accumulation should accompany the showers this period,
   although some isolated severe hazards could come with any
   stronger pop-up convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Observational analysis this evening depicts a weak upper-level
ridge over the region with a trough over much of the Intermountain
West. The ridge should weaken through the weekend before another
stronger ridge builds in from the southwest by the beginning of
next week. Despite the presence of these ridges, models are
suggesting that afternoon convection will be possible through the
weekend. Models generally highlight our eastern and northeastern
zones as the focus for these showers, but these pop-up showers
could develop anywhere in the region with afternoon temperatures
reaching the low to mid 90s. The general lack of upper-level
support minimizes the risk of widespread severe weather but
isolated severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The scattered
nature of these showers should also keep the flooding risk
limited.

Rain chances slightly increase both in likelihood and coverage
with the beginning of the building ridge on Monday and continue
through the work week. These showers should be a combination of
afternoon convection and some pockets of forcing in the upper-
level flow, which can make pinning exact locations difficult.
Any rain that does fall looks like it will produce little in terms
of accumulation, as WPC D1-7 QPF in the region is limited to
around an inch. Severe potential with these also look to be
minimal right now, but will be monitored. Temperatures are likely
to stay in the 90s through much of the week thanks to the ridge.
Some areas might get enough of a cooldown to make it into the
upper 80s in the latter half of the week, but relief will be
minuscule.

Long-range models are beginning to suggest a pattern shift coming
next weekend that would plant the Ark-La-Tx in northwest flow.
This regime has the potential to bring more organized rain to the
area with any disturbances that propagate down this flow,
assuming that this pattern shift does occur.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

For the 30/06z TAF period...Can`t rule out some patchy low cigs
at KELD and KTXK overnight and near daybreak, but confidence is
low. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of
the period with some passing high clouds and afternoon CU. There
is a chance for some isolated to convection to develop this
afternoon into the early evening hours, mainly at KELD and KMLU,
but we can`t completely rule it out at KSHV and KTXK. However, due
to the expected isolated coverage, decided to leave out of the
TAFs and will amend if needed. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  74  92  74  93 /  20  30  20   0
DEQ  73  92  71  94 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  75  94  73  97 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  91  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76  94  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  94  75  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20