265
FXUS64 KSHV 242330
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions will continue this weekend with some
   isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly
   across Southwest Arkansas late tonight/Saturday with the
   approach of a weak upper level disturbance.

 - Dangerous heat will begin to build back over the region Sunday
   through much of next week, with the likelihood of heat products
   needed as afternoon temperatures near or exceed the century
   mark, and heat indices exceed 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The midday sfc analysis indicates that what`s left of our "dry"
air that backdoored SW into the region Wednesday night/Thursday
morning has retreated N into Ern OK/Wrn and Cntrl AR, with a broad
and very moist sector continuing to expand N into SE OK/SW AR in
wake of this retreating bndry. PW`s remain quite high across the
area in wake of the remnants of Bertha which have migrated W
across the Rio Grande Valley/Big Bend Region of SW TX, with strong
insolation atop the very moist air mass contributing to the
development of isolated convection ongoing across various portions
of the region attm. Have re-added slight chance pops areawide this
afternoon to account for this, with the increasing cu cigs either
slowing or capping the temp rise to the mid 90s. Watching the weak
shortwave trough traversing SE across NE KS into Nrn MO early this
afternoon, which continues to focus scattered convection from
Cntrl OK NE into Ern KS/Cntrl and Srn MO, with this weakness
progged to slide SSE around the expanding upper level ridge
centered over the Four Corners Region E into the Cntrl Plains.

Should start to see more impacts with the elevated cigs ahead of
this weakness this evening/overnight, with the vast majority of
the 12Z progs and hi-res ensembles focusing more in the way of
convection late tonight especially across SW and Cntrl AR than
earlier model runs. The NBM remains dry largely due to continuity
with earlier/older runs, and thus, have had to add slight chance
pops this evening/overnight for this area and increasing pops to
chance Saturday morning, all the while bleeding pops S into
portions of N LA to account for a potential increase/SSE track of
convection along this weak trough axis. Given that PW`s will
remain between 2.1-2.25 inches across SW AR this evening/overnight,
should not take much for even isolated convection to develop.
Should also contend with thickening elevated cigs especially
should the convection develop/deepen as what the models suggest,
which may help taper back the max temp forecast Saturday afternoon.
Did lower temps slightly across portions of SW AR, but the NBM
temps look mostly ok as the elevated cigs may thin with time
through the afternoon resulting in some increased insolation by
that time, with the hottest temps expected farther W over ECntrl
and N TX. Attm, there still remains enough uncertainty with the
extent of the elevated cigs which may help to taper back max temps
even over much of E TX. Even after bumping up NBM dewpoints
slightly which have typically run a bit too low this summer, heat
indices look to be Marginal for the need of a Heat Advisory, and
after coordination with WFO FWD, have held off on the advisory
attm for portions of E TX and will allow the evening shift to re-
evaluate should the progs revert to a drier solution with this
weakness entering the region.

Confidence does increase Sunday into the remainder of the extended
period as the upper ridge begins to expand SE into the Mid and
Lower MS Valley, with increased subsidence atop the drying
topsoils across the region. Max temps Sunday should climb into the
upper 90s, and even near the century mark in some areas, before
more extensive triple digit readings expand elsewhere across the
area this next week, thus necessitating the need for heat
products to address the developing dangerous heat. Dry conditions
should persist through at least midweek, although there is some
hint amongst the ensembles that the ridge may begin to weaken/back
off slightly by late week, allowing for weaknesses in the Nrly
flow to seep S and focus at least isolated afternoon/evening
convection over portions of Srn AR/Nrn and Ern LA.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For the 25/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing a few
light showers across portions of the area. I don`t think that any
of terminals will see a direct impact, although a shower or two
may come close to KMLU so I have maintained mention of VCSH.
Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions prevail for all terminals
with some MVFR ceilings expected once again tonight and towards
tomorrow morning before we return to BKN250. I do have some
mention of VCSH for KMLU, KTXK, KTYR, and KGGG around 25/15z with
-RA and SHRA for KELD as some showers could move through during
 the overnight hours. /33/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  96  78  97 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  77  95  77  98 /  10  20   0   0
DEQ  76  95  75  98 /  20  20   0   0
TXK  78  98  77 100 /  20  20   0   0
ELD  76  94  75  98 /  20  30   0   0
TYR  78  98  77  99 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  78  96  77  98 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  75  96  75  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33