272
FXUS64 KSHV 151006
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
406 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Radar this morning showing some light returns across far southern
zones (well south of I-20) and this may be a theme for most of the
day as a decent shortwave aloft drops through the region from NW
to SE. However, the airmass in the lower levels is still quite dry
and most of the precipitation should evaporate before hitting the
ground - thus only isolated showers with a 10% chance of measuring
in a rain gauge was included in the official forecast for those
far southern zones. We will start the day with temperatures
ranging from the upper 20s north of the I-30 corridor to the mid
30s to around 40 degrees in far southern zones. A few sleet
pellets cannot be ruled out in far southern zones due to
evaporative cooling through the dry layer, but absolutely no
impacts are expected from this, if it were to occur. Otherwise, a
clearing trend from the northwest through the bulk of the region
through the day will continue a warming trend with highs ranging
from the mid 50s north to around 60 degrees in central and
southern zones. There was a little bit of snow and ice remaining
on the ground yesterday north of I-30, but the relative warmth
today will likely melt whatever is remaining.

Tonight, expect generally clear skies and light winds with the
gradually modifying airmass still capable of delivering low
temperatures a little below normal - ranging from the mid 20s
north of I-30 to a general range of 30 to 35 degrees elsewhere.
Areas of frost are anticipated by daybreak Thursday, but the
potential for fog (and freezing fog) late tonight into early
tomorrow will be low. /50/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

The main concern in the long term period is increasingly focused
on the potential for anomalous cold and perhaps wintry
precipitation in the latter Monday through Wednesday timeframe.
But we will get to details of that a bit below.

Thursday night through midday Friday will feature gradually
increasing clouds and continued slow airmass modification as winds
switch to the south ahead of broad surface low pressure developing
along a sharpening cold front dropping into the Central Plains.
Lows in the 30s are anticipated Thursday night with highs Friday
again mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

A massive upper level trough will start carving south through the
bulk of the CONUS Friday into Saturday and this will drive a
strong Arctic cold front into and through the area late Friday
night into early Saturday. Moisture advection and weak synoptic
lift will likely get isolated showers going across the region
Friday afternoon with coverage and intensities growing as activity
shifts gradually east of the area Friday night. A few non-severe
storms cannot be ruled out in eastern zones before activity
departs, but low level instability should be quite low.
Precipitation totals should be light at best with totals over a
tenth of an inch mainly limited to far eastern zones.

Behind the front and showers, the Arctic air mass will be
gradually building in behind gusty north winds. Highs on Friday
under partly cloudy skies could still be in the mild 60s across
Central LA, although locations northwest of the I-30 corridor will
be hard pressed to make it out of the 40s. Winds should continue
to blow Saturday night with temperatures dropping into the lower
20s north to near 30 south by daybreak Sunday. Wind chills will be
5 to 10 degrees colder than absolute temps Saturday night into
early Sunday, owing to the brisk north winds. The chilly air mass
will continue to build in, with north winds continuing, Sunday
through Monday morning. Lows likely ranging from the teens north
to lower 20s south may require some Cold Weather Advisories
starting Sunday night. Temperatures will struggle to climb above
freezing areawide on Monday as clouds increase.

This finally leads into the wintry precipitation window from
around Monday night through Wednesday. NWP guidance has continued
to grow in consensus that energy swinging around the mentioned
large CONUS longwave upper trough will spark low level
cyclogenesis in the Gulf and precipitation development at least as
far north as I-20 by Monday night and/or Tuesday. Confidence in
timing is still not great owing to one camp of ensemble solutions
(Camp One) holding back energy until Wednesday while Camp Two
brings most of it through Monday night / Tuesday. Camp Two
solutions are looking slightly more likely than Camp One, although
Camp One would likely result in heavier precipitation over a more
widespread portion of the Four State region. But this camp could
also involve slightly warmer temperatures and precip type
uncertainties, at least in southern zones. Otherwise, the air
mass, as it looks right now, should be cold enough to support snow
as the primary precipitation type with the cold ground generally
supportive of accumulation.

This wintry weather potential is still in the range of 6 to 8 days
away and it is generally foolhardy to try to pinpoint details at
this range. We will do our best to graphically message potential
impacts probabilistically at this stage and continue to work
toward refining some details over the coming few days. /50/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

A weak upper level disturbance is currently passing to our south
and southeast and its helping to generate a few sprinkles across
our far southern airspace attm. Most of this precipitation is not
making it to the ground but ceilings are around 7kft so cannot
rule it out through the morning hours. Kept any mention of
precipitation south of our I-20 Corridor terminals, only choosing
to prevail VCSH at the LFK terminal through midday. Likewise, we
should be able to lose most of this AC deck (6-10kft) moisture
during the afternoon from west to east as well. Look for light and
variable winds today through tonight.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  34  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  58  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  32  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  33  63  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...13