627
FXUS64 KSHV 182314
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s will continue
   through the weekend and into early next week, with mostly dry
   conditions expected throughout.

 - Slight rainfall chances may impact northern and western zones
   early next week.

 - The very slight cooling trend has shifted later again, with
   highs only in the low to middle 90s late next week, and more
   overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A closed upper-level high continues to meander westward over
northeast TX at the time of writing. Synoptic subsidence will work
to keep showers at bay. While temperatures will still remain in the
upper 90s through the weekend, drier air is being ushered in by
the high pressure and should help keep heat indices well below
Heat Advisory criteria. Recent surface observations already have
reported dew points in the 60s at most sites, which is much sooner
in the day compared to previous days. This relative comfort will
increase preexisting fire weather concerns and drought conditions.
People should monitor local official guidance on any burn bans in
place. The lower humidity will luckily help cool things off
during the evening hours, allowing temperatures to drop in the low
70s instead of the upper 70s of recent days.

The pattern change that has been the focus of recent discussion
continues to surprise. The ridge over the region is still expected
to weaken during the early part of next week, largely keeping the
low in the Northern Plains at bay. However, both the Euro and GFS`s
6z run depict a mid-level vort max around southeast OK Monday
morning. Should this verify, there could be enough forcing to
organize some rain in the northwest part of the region even without
the influence of the low up north. The NBM has continued to cut back
on rain coverage but increased the existing rain chances on Monday,
suggesting some level of increasing confidence.

After the rain on Monday, conditions remain dry for the rest of the
forecast period. But the low moving through the Northern Plains is
expected to continue toward the Midwest by midweek and hopefully
usher in some slightly cooler temperatures. Even if fall isn`t here
yet, temperatures in the low 90s will certainly be better than
triple digits.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For the 19/00z TAFs, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
areawide for the duration of the TAF period. Clear skies will be
the rule for most sites overnight. Scattered daytime cu will
likely develop after 19/18z, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma,
East Texas, extreme Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Western
Louisiana. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected
initially, but westerly or southwesterly winds are likely after
daybreak before backing to the south and southeast during the
afternoon. Sustained speeds should remain below 10 kts.

/Nuttall/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  72 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  71  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  70 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...09