400
FXUS64 KSHV 220004
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
704 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Thunderstorms across the southern half of the ArkLaTex this
   afternoon and evening will be capable of producing damaging
   wind gusts.

 - Showers and storms tomorrow afternoon may produce damaging wind
   gusts and large hail in southwest Arkansas and immediately
   adjacent portions of Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana.

 - A Heat Advisory will continue areawide overnight and through
   tomorrow evening for high temperatures near or in excess of
   100 degrees with heat indices up to 109 continuing throughout
   the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Decaying showers along the I-30 corridor are at this hour still
trying to put down some strong gusts. As these deteriorate,
attention will turn this afternoon to the surface boundary sliding
south. Recent runs of CAMs indicate convection lighting up by mid to
late afternoon south of the I-20 corridor in east Texas and north
Louisiana, prompting an upgrade to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) by the
SPC. As with yesterday`s storms, the primary threat will be wind-
driven in nature, likely in the form of downbursts produced by
mature to decaying storms or storm complexes.

Today`s storms look to move south out of the area by late evening,
leaving the region generally dry overnight, aside from the potential
arrival of the leading line of the next complex out of Oklahoma
along and north of I-30 in the pre-dawn hours. These storms will
continue to graze our northern zones into tomorrow morning, with
subsequent rounds of storms to follow. The latest NBM guidance keeps
PoPs primarily north of the I-20 corridor through Sunday morning,
based on the steering of northwest flow aloft and impulses of
moisture being driven south.

As for the heat outlook, solutions are staring to diverge more, but
the overall trend is minor relief from the oppressive heat and
humidity of recent days. CONSShort is favoring significant mixing
out of dewpoints tomorrow behind the passing surface boundary. While
this may be exaggerated, even the comparably muggy NBM numbers do
not indicate ArkLaTex sites exceeding Heat Advisory criteria, and
some of our northern sites struggling to even reach criteria.
Allowing for potential overperformance, extended areawide Heat
Advisory through Saturday evening.

The long term forecast is considerably more uncertain, based on the
extent and strength of the upper level ridge and high pressure. As
of this writing, Sunday looks to remain largely dry, with scattered
chances for showers and storms clipping our northern and eastern
zones going into next week, a bit of a drier period late Monday
through early Wednesday, and more rounds of showers and storms for
the latter half of next week as weak disturbances are swept south on
the northwest flow. In a nutshell, the prevailing upper level
pattern will change very little, but the exact position of the
northwest flow and moisture impulses will be the deciding factor in
who gets rain and when. Triple digits look to continue throughout,
though the presence of more frequent rainfall and cloud cover may
start to make a dent in this prolonged heat wave for our
northeastern zones, meaning highs "only" in the middle to upper 90s.
Lows in the middle to upper 70s will likewise continue throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the 22/00Z TAF period, convection across our southern airspace
will gradually wind down over the next few hours this evening with
some convective debris clouds lingering overnight. Another round
of afternoon convection will be possible on Saturday as a frontal
boundary continues to linger across the region so have included a
mention of VCTS at all sites once again later in the TAF period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail outside of any convection
with light and variable winds expected through the period except
for much higher gusts likely invof strong to severe convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
East Texas and North Louisiana with the development of
thunderstorms that may produce damaging wind gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77 101  77 100 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  75 102  75 100 /  10  20  20  10
DEQ  71  99  70  98 /  30  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  74  99 /  10  20  30  10
ELD  73 100  72  99 /  10  20  30  10
TYR  79 103  79 103 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  77 104  77 103 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  77 103  77 101 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-
     071.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ072-073.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ072-073.

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ124>126-136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19