042
FXUS64 KSHV 100651
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Dry NW flow aloft will help usher a reinforcing cold front into
   the region later today.

 - Despite this incoming front, a gradual warming trend will carry
   through the end of this week as southerly winds return Thursday.

 - Another cold front will arrive by Saturday, bringing low-end
   rain chances and below normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A dry NW flow regime aloft has finally managed to mix down enough
dry air to limit our overnight low stratus and fog formation as
compared to the past few nights. However, returning southerly sfc
winds have started to promote some development around Toledo Bend
Country as indicated by the latest satellite imagery. This warmer
Gulf air flowing overtop the cooler sfc should allow for advection
farther northward through mid to late morning so have accounted
for this with cloud cover increasing over the next several hours,
especially along and south of I-20. Otherwise, cloud cover farther
north is generally limited to dense cirrus moving south within the
NW flow pattern aloft.

As we progress through the day on Wednesday, the extent of any low
clouds and patchy fog will gradually abate with sunshine expected
in the afternoon as a reinforcing cold front advances through the
region. Ahead of the front, breezy W/SW winds will help to propel
high temperatures into the 60s for much of the region as the front
comes through dry with little fanfare. Winds will shift back to
the N/NW with fropa as the drier air mass in place is reinforced,
making for a cold night on Wednesday night with overnight lows in
the 30s areawide. Advancing high pressure at the sfc will allow
for a quick return to southerly winds by Thursday, maintaining the
slightly above average high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

The warming trend continues into Friday as S/SW winds will yield
high temperatures in the 60s north to lower 70s south, likely our
warmest day of the next 7 days. Beyond Friday, expect a downward
trend in temperatures once again with the arrival of a stronger
cold front and some low-end rain chances on Saturday into Saturday
night, mainly along and south of I-30 where we`ll see a bit more
moisture recovery ahead of the front. Overall, rain amounts will
be rather light where rain does manage to fall. Dry conditions
should resume by Sunday behind the front with a 1040 mb sfc high
building south from Canada. This will promote some of the coldest
air so far this season with mid and upper 20s for lows on Monday
morning across our northernmost zones and ranging through the 30s
elsewhere. Beyond that, our next chance for rain appears to be on
Tuesday with a shortwave trough pivoting eastward from the Desert
SW as temperatures slowly recover back to near seasonal averages.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For the 10/06z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail initially as high
cirrus clouds spread southward. Satellite loops already show
patchy fog and low clouds developing between KJAS and the Sabine
River. It`s uncertain how much coverage will ultimately develop,
but current thinking is KLFK and portions of Deep East Texas
eastward into Central Louisiana will be the most likely areas to
experience lowered cigs/vsbys and MVFR flight conditions. Low
clouds should be more SCT farther north. A frontal boundary will
move across the area after 10/12z causing surface winds to become
northwesterly and northerly areawide. Dry air advection behind the
front will quickly scour out any remaining low clouds by 10/19z.
VFR conditions should prevail areawide after that, with skies
becoming mostly clear with winds generally 5 kts or less around
sunset.

/09/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  38  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  64  36  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  60  31  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  63  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  32  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  65  37  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  65  35  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...09