819
FXUS64 KSHV 221858
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1258 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Weak cold front will knock down temperatures today across the
   entire Four State Region but temperatures across our southeast
   half will remain above normal for late November.

 - Next storm system poised to begin impacting our region late
   Sunday Night but especially Monday through Tuesday bringing
   with it at least the potential for heavy rainfall and severe
   storms.

 - Much colder air is poised to infiltrate our region Wed into Thu
   with a chance at freezing overnight temperatures across our far
   northern zones Wed Night and Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level flow will stay relatively zonal ahead of the incoming
low pressure system expected Monday. But tonight and tomorrow will
stay dry with Sunday`s high in the upper 60s and low 70s. Mid-
level moisture will begin to return to the region on Sunday
night. Recent model guidance has shown a slightly slower
progression of the upper-level trough but initial short-range
model solutions have kept rain time of arrival at Monday morning
and lasting through the overnight hours. The main concern at this
time is the flash and urban flooding potential associated with the
rain. The hope is that the recent dryness has set soil up to
absorb much of the rainfall, but paved and low-lying areas will
need to be monitored for pooling water through Monday night. There
is also a risk of severe weather, but this is highly dependent on
co-occurring forcing and instability. Both hazards will be most
likely along and north of the I-30 corridor and will be a major
focus for future forecast packages.

Upon the cold front`s passage late on Tuesday, cooler air and
drier conditions will return to the Ark-La-Tx. Afternoon highs in
the 50s/60s will be the perfect fall conditions for the holiday
on Thursday. Overnight lows will be flirting with freezing for our
northwestern zones, but the worst of the cold will stay to our
north. A hint of the next round of rain looks to be coming late
this period thanks to a longwave trough.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For the 22/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon
with just some passing cirrus making its way across our airspace.
Farther north, some SCT-BKN cu/stratocu continues to slowly work
southward into SE OK and adjacent areas of SW AR. Some of these
lower clouds may reach the TXK terminal but have kept coverage to
just SCT with cloud heights around 3.5Kft. The forecast challenge
going into the overnight hours and early Sunday morning is whether
these lower clouds will persist with additional southward movement
as low-level and sfc winds maintain a northerly component between
4-8 kts on average. For now, have kept just SCT coverage with the
cloud heights dropping between 1.5K-2.5Kft. However, it`s possible
that MVFR cigs may develop as far south as I-20 closer to daybreak
along with some patchy fog. Future TAF cycles will address this in
more detail as forecast confidence should improve by this evening.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  72  56  77 /   0   0  30  70
MLU  51  71  51  78 /   0   0   0  40
DEQ  44  67  49  64 /   0   0  70  90
TXK  50  68  53  70 /   0   0  50  90
ELD  48  67  47  71 /   0   0  20  70
TYR  47  70  56  73 /   0   0  50  90
GGG  47  71  54  75 /   0   0  40  90
LFK  48  74  55  79 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19