332
FXUS64 KSHV 250018
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
618 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening
   mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor of East Texas and
   North Louisiana. A localized flood threat will persist as well
   for this area as well as extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
   Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.

 - Cooler and drier conditions will return to the region late
   tonight through Tuesday, with a stronger reinforcement of
   colder/drier air spilling southeast Tuesday night/Wednesday
   morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Busy morning as organized convection has spread farther E than
what the short term progs have indicated this morning, which may
work in our favor and inhibit as much of a northward shift of the
warm front into the region this afternoon. The leading edge of the
convection has weakened considerably over SCntrl AR and extreme NW
LA, but has reinforced the cooler air along and just S of the
I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA. However, am currently watching the
deepening convection development ongoing over SE TX WNW of HOU
near and S of a warm front, which extends from just N of ATT, to
just N of UTS, to JAS and along the Lower Sabine Valley of SW LA.
The short term progs remain in general agreement with additional
PVA spreading NE ahead of the primary upper trough currently
tracking through W TX, which should help maintain the cooler air
in VC of I-20 even as the warm front continues to lift N through
the afternoon/early evening. Thus, the greater instability axis
will spread N into Lower E TX/N LA S of the front, with more than
adequate bulk shear of 50-60 kts enhancing the development of
deeper, more organized and potentially severe convection by mid
and late afternoon once large scale forcing increases ahead of the
approaching trough. In fact, some backing of the low level winds
should help to increase low level shear as weak low pressure waves
try to develop along the warm front, which would enhance the
potential for isolated tornadic development. After coordination
with SPC, have issued a Tornado Watch in effect until 01Z this
evening for Lower E TX and far Wrn LA.

Have had to make some considerable adjustments to max temps this
afternoon especially for areas N of the warm front, mainly to
lower them as much as some 5-8+ degrees. Have also increased pops
a bit based on the current obs, with categorical/likely pops
continuing for much of the region this evening before the trough
allows for a sfc dry line to mix E into the area late this evening
through the overnight hours. But before the dry line arrival, cell
training in VC of the warm front may result in a narrow band of
higher QPF of 2-4+ inches from portions of extreme Ern TX into NW
LA/possibly far Srn AR, which may result in a localized flood
threat over these area through this evening. Will allow the
current Flood Watch to ride as is for areas along/N of the I-30
corridor, as sfc gauges from Red River County TX into McCurtain
County OK and Sevier/Howard Counties in SW AR have recorded 1-2+
inch totals, with additional rainfall expected over nearly
saturated grounds from previous rainfall late last week.

The short term progs continue to suggest that the trough axis will
exit the region to the ENE shortly after 06Z, thus quickly
diminishing the convection from W to E with its departure. While
the progs also hint at some wrap-around stratocu spilling S in
wake of this trough Tuesday, enough clearing may exist late
tonight through mid-morning for patchy FG development. Above
normal temps will return to much of the region Tuesday, before a
second but stronger cold front shifts SE through the area late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, returning more seasonal
conditions back in time for the Thanksgiving holiday. Depending on
the extent of cirrus rounding the base of the attendant longwave
trough Wednesday night as sfc ridging continues to build into the
region, freezing temps are possible Thursday morning across SE
OK/SW AR before spreading farther SE into the Lower MS Valley
Thursday night.

The dry NW flow aloft in wake of the longwave trough passage will
begin to flatten by the start of the holiday weekend with the
approach of additional shortwave energy entering the region, with
rapidly returning low level moisture along a SSWrly LLJ
contributing to an increase in convection development Saturday,
becoming further enhanced by Sunday as additional energy develops
in the SW flow aloft and overspreads the area. Attm, instability
return looks meager for the weekend systems, but additional much
needed rainfall is expected to provide some relief to the ongoing
drought conditions.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A NE to SW band of convection extending from Cntrl/Srn AR into
extreme NW LA and Lower E TX will continue to slowly shift E
across SCntrl AR into N LA this evening, gradually diminishing
from W to E after 06Z. A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs are expected in and
near the convection, with localized wind gusts to 30-35kts
possible with the strongest convection. This convection will
affect all but the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals this evening, exiting MLU
by 09Z. In wake of the convection, IFR/LIFR cigs will develop and
lower overnight, with areas of FG possible over E TX/SW AR/NW LA
between 06-09Z, and possibly reaching ELD/MLU between 09-12Z. The
FG should lift by mid-morning, although MVFR cigs will linger
until around midday/early afternoon before returning to VFR.
Farther S across Deep E TX/Srn sections of NCntrl LA, SKC is
expected after the FG lifts. VRB winds 5-10kts this evening will
become Lt/Vrb after 06Z. Winds will then become WNW and increase
to 5-10kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening over
portions of East texas and North Louisiana along and south of the
I-20 corridor. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  75  48  62 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  63  75  50  60 / 100  10   0   0
DEQ  50  66  38  56 /  40   0   0   0
TXK  54  68  43  57 /  70   0   0   0
ELD  55  69  43  58 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  54  70  44  60 /  60   0   0   0
GGG  54  71  44  60 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  58  76  48  64 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for TXZ097-108>112.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15