Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
597 FXUS64 KSHV 030039 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 639 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 - Increasing showers and thunderstorms late Monday night over East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Western Louisiana. - Showers and thunderstorms will shift east across much of the region through the day Tuesday along a cold front, and will bring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, before diminishing during the evening. - Cooler and drier conditions are expected for mid and late week in wake of the frontal passage, with near seasonal temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Observational analysis this morning has a deep upper-level trough over the Rockies. This system will be the focus for incoming weather across the Central and Southern Plains through the day today, impacting the Ark-La-Tx overnight tonight. Until then, weak isentropic lift and some meager instability are keeping some light showers on radar this morning. Some showers might be too light to see rain on the ground but a trace has been reported at KSHV by the time of writing. The greater push of rain will be coming later tonight as the previously mentioned cold front pushes into Southeast OK around midnight tonight. Areas along and northwest of a line generally from Tyler, TX to De Queen, AR will need to stay Weather Aware between midnight tonight to daybreak Tuesday, when the front is expected to push through. The primary hazards overnight will be damaging wind gusts and flooding from heavy rain but a few tornadoes can`t be ruled out. The front will continue to push through the rest of East TX, Southern AR, and Northwest LA during the day Tuesday. The speed of the front has rain lingering in our far southeastern zones until midnight Tuesday night, but there is still some uncertainty on storm strength. First, the plentiful cloud cover over the region both today and tomorrow is likely to impede instability development ahead of the front. But there may be enough heating to allow things to reintensify during the late morning, even with the cloud cover. For now, SPC and WPC have highlighted areas not included in today`s respective outlooks in a marginal risk for severe weather and flooding to communicate the potential risk tomorrow. These outlooks are subject to change with future forecast packages. Fall-like temperatures are expected to follow on the heels of this front, dropping the region into the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. The rest of the trough energy should push down into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday/Friday and knock back temperatures further into the upper 60s. There may be some light rain for some southern zones during this push, but nothing like what is expected over the next 36 hours. Long-range models depict quasi-zonal flow establishing itself Friday and shifting northwesterly with the southward progression of another low to our north late this weekend. The GFS solution keeps us dry with plenty of continental air keeping RH`s low. Should this occur, another period of increased fire weather concerns may be on the horizon early next week. 57 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 For the 03/00Z TAF period, an increasingly active 24 hours lies ahead as Gulf moisture and low clouds surge northward across our airspace ahead of a cold front. This front will arrives in East TX between 12Z-15Z on Tuesday morning, closer to 18Z at KSHV and KTXK and finally in our eastern airspace at KELD and KMLU near the very end of the TAF period around 04/00Z. Along and ahead of the front, look for increasing SHRA and TSRA throughout much of the morning in East TX before expanding eastward toward midday into SW AR and NW LA with the advancing cold front. Cigs/vsby restrictions will generally range from MVFR to IFR for much of the period, possibly lower at times with increasing convection on Tuesday. Wind speeds will remain elevated with a tightening pressure gradient, ranging between 10-15 kts on average with higher gusts, especially invof convection. Improving conditions will return across western sites late in the period following fropa as convection gradually ends from west to east. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast Oklahoma, adjacent Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme Northeast Texas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 73 53 71 / 50 100 10 0 MLU 67 81 53 74 / 0 90 80 0 DEQ 63 74 45 72 / 90 90 0 0 TXK 67 72 49 70 / 70 100 0 0 ELD 65 75 47 74 / 20 100 10 0 TYR 67 73 51 72 / 70 90 0 0 GGG 67 73 49 72 / 60 100 0 0 LFK 69 76 49 76 / 30 100 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...19