903
FXUS64 KSHV 251801
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
101 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates sfc riding anchored over
the Nrn Gulf, with a stationary front extending farther to the N
from SW AL into Cntrl MS along the Mid-South/Mid MS Valley. Sfc
obs indicate that low level moisture pooling is evident along and
to the W of this front into the Delta region, with 15Z dewpoints
still in the upper 70s over NE LA/SE AR. Meanwhile, the center of
the upper ridge has retreated W a bit from W TX into the Desert
SW, with more of a NW flow aloft evident along the Ern periphery
of the ridge over the region. Did see an area of AC cigs in part
of a weak shortwave dropping SE around the ridge over SE
OK/adjacent Wrn AR, although these cigs have mostly mixed out with
strong insolation underway despite the returning stratocu cigs
over E TX/WCntrl LA.

Some of the hi-res progs still continue to suggest that isolated
convection will be possible this afternoon across SW AR/much of N
LA in VC of this weak perturbation aloft as it drops SE, and thus
have maintained slight chance pops for these areas. Any convection
that develops should diminish by or shortly after sunset, as we
await additional shortwave energy that should approach the region
from the NW late tonight. Max temps this afternoon should be
similar to what was observed Monday, albeit slightly cooler across
portions of E TX which have been trending 1-3 degrees cooler than
24 hrs ago with the increased stratocu field. However, limited
mixing of dewpoints, especially over portions of Srn AR/N LA,
will result in heat indices on the high end of Advisory criteria,
and possibly entering Warning criteria over the Ern parishes of
NCntrl/NE LA. Given the limited coverage of such higher indices,
have maintained the Heat Advisory as is, and will continue to
monitor through the afternoon. Given the uncertainties as to the
extent of any convection/associated cloud cover late tonight and
Wednesday, will maintain the Advisory as is for now, and re-
evaluate the need for one Wednesday later this afternoon.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to influence most of the region
today, but the center of the ridge will shift westward into the
Four Corners region of the country. This will put our Southern
Arkansas and Louisiana zones on the eastern fringe of the ridge.
There could be just enough weakness in these areas for daytime
heating to initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms. So,
decided to add slight chance POPs in these areas. For the
remainder of the area, a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out
with daytime heating. However, despite the rain chances, expect
another day of hot and humid temps, with highs ranging again from
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory
will remain in place through this evening.

On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the Four
Corners region. At the same time, the eastern periphery of the
ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to
develop over most of our area. This is where the forecast gets
interesting. Most of the HREF models are suggesting that an MCS
could develop across Oklahoma and dive south into the region
during the morning hours. Later on in the day, progs are
suggesting a cool front will try to backdoor into the region,
bringing additional precip, before it stalls or washes out across
our South-Central Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana zones. Because
of the uncertainties with rain, decided to hold off on extending
the current Heat Advisory at this time, although there is a
decent chance afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s
again.

20

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances may linger across portions of the region Wednesday
evening and overnight into Thursday morning. However, it looks
like drier conditions will try to return, as the upper ridge will
try to reestablish itself over the region for the end of the work
week into the first half of next weekend. Additional heat products could
be issued, as afternoon highs will likely return into the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees.

Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday into the first couple
of days of the next work week, but long-range progs are depicting
some precip underneath the ridge. Although my confidence is low
on the rain chances, decided to leave slight POPS in the forecast,
as there is some hint that the ridge could weaken some during
this period. Regardless, it still looks like hot and humid
conditions will continue, with afternoon highs remaining in the
mid 90s to near 100 degrees.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR through the rest of today and for
most of the overnight with some MVFR cigs around daybreak. There
may be a chance for some convection early, based on the GFS/ECMWF
models. Others all agree for more of a chance later in the day
and into the evening/overnight Wed as a weak backdoor cool front
pushes across S AR. S/SW winds will prevail this cycle and may
become varied from the N if good amount of rain can help cool the
air. Downpours could bring down gusty winds alongside. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80  99  78 /  10  10  20  30
MLU 100  78  97  74 /  20  20  40  40
DEQ  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  40  20
TXK 101  79  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
ELD  98  76  95  72 /  20  20  40  30
TYR  97  79  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  98  78  98  76 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  98  76  97  76 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24