665
FXUS64 KSHV 201141
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - Above average heat in store today and into the work week, with
   highs in the middle to upper 90s.

 - Scattered showers will be possible across the northwestern
   ArkLaTex on Monday, but coverage will be limited and
   accumulation negligible. Watching the possibility for isolated
   strong storms.

 - Dry conditions will resume Tuesday, with trends favoring some
   relief from the heat in the form of highs in the upper 80s to
   lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

As has been the story all week, upper level ridging remains well and
truly in charge throughout this forecast period, with only minor
pattern shifts in the synoptic flow adding any variation to the
weather story throughout. The closed high responsible for our
significantly above average afternoon high temperatures will open up
into a positively titled ridge during the day today, nudging open
the door for a series of weak shortwave troughs to slide eastward
across the Southern Plains early in the week. Afternoon highs in the
middle to upper 90s look to continue areawide today through at least
tomorrow, with overnight lows generally in the middle 70s.

Models have achieved a reasonable degree of consistency regarding
the arrival of rainfall for our northwestern zones, which looks to
be between midnight and sunrise Monday. The possibility exists for
some stronger thunderstorms, but the risk area is still centered to
our north and west over Oklahoma, and impacts to the ArkLaTex will
depend on whether or not convection can hold together as it advances
southeast, which guidance has not been favoring. As of this writing,
PoPs extend from Tyler to Texarkana and northeast along the I-30
corridor, with zones south and east of this axis not expecting any
rainfall throughout. What rain does impact the region Monday
afternoon looks to come to an end by or shortly after sunset, with
only negligible PoPs to follow.

High pressure will begin to reassert itself Tuesday, as ridging over
the Front Range pushes east over the Plains, where it will remain
through the rest of the week, as a large closed high takes shape
over east Texas and Louisiana. The almost triangular shape of this
high, guided by the parent ridge, in tandem with the pressure center
drifting south towards the coast, opens the door for less
aggressively hot conditions by the end of this forecast period.
Referring to the afternoon temperatures as a "cool down" feels
generous to the point of unrealistic, but highs only in the upper
80s to lower 90s will be a welcome change of pace. Morning lows will
constitute a breath of fresh air, particularly for our Arkansas
counties, which will be among the first to enjoy lows in the upper
60s, with lower 60s north to upper 60s south becoming routine by the
end of the week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For the 20/12z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through
the period with clouds eventually increasing in coverage as a cu
field expands later today in addition to cirrus overspreading our
airspace from the west. Otherwise, winds will be light to near
calm early on and increase slightly from the SW initially before
backing to the S/SE between 5-10 kts throughout the day. Beyond
21/00Z, look for cirrus to linger and winds to drop off slightly
just ahead of an approaching cold front to the NW.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  98  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLU 100  75 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  97  70  96  68 /   0  10  30  10
TXK  98  75  97  73 /   0   0  20  10
ELD  99  73  98  71 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  97  75  97  74 /   0  10  30  10
GGG  99  73  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19