303
FXUS64 KSHV 180012
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
712 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

 - High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s will continue
   through the week and into the weekend, with dry conditions
   expected throughout.

 - Slight rainfall chances return early next week, but confidence
   and coverage remain unclear at this point.

 - Minor relief from the heat may be possible next week, primarily
   in the form of overnight lows in the 60s across our northern
   zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The upper-level high that has kept temperatures high will continue
shifting westward from where it was previously stuck over the
Southeast. The center of this high moving over the region will
effectively cut off most attempts of rain developing through the
remainder of the week and this weekend. The high will keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s but will also be ushering
some drier air, which will help keep heat indices lower than they
have been in recent days. Even without heat products in place, the
prolonged hot and dry conditions will continue to worsen drought
and fire weather concerns the longer we go without meaningful
rain.

The opening for a cold front and some rain on Monday look a bit more
uncertain compared to previous forecasts. The GFS and Euro have
lined up more on the 6z run: suggesting that high pressure will
restrengthen over the Ark-La-Tx and keep the influence of the upper-
level trough to the north mostly at bay. This morning`s NBM is still
painting in some slight chance PoPs during the day Monday, but are
more scattered and largely limited to western and northern zones.
WPC`s D1-7 QPF doesn`t inspire much more confidence with
accumulations of basically 0. While this isn`t what we want to be
hearing, there is still time for models to change between now and
next week.

After Tuesday, long-range model solutions return to a warm and dry
regime, with temperatures back into the mid and upper 90s.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the 18/00Z TAF update, high pressure aloft continues to
suppress VCTS convection with Cu fields and some potential for
lingering FEW/SCT250 through the period. Surface winds will
remain light and variable until 18/15Z with some gradual east-
southeasterly speeds gained at 5-10 kts. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  71  99  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  98  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  99  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  72  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16