789
FXUS64 KSHV 251845
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
145 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

We have a nice cu field on visible satellite early this
afternoon, along with some scattered convection initiating to the
west of the region. Confidence is still good on holding off on a
Heat Advisory today, as apparent temps are below guidance in most
areas. But we will keep an eye on heat indices through the
afternoon to make sure a product doesn`t become necessary later.

Based on the diurnal convection trends from last few days, I
bumped up PoPs for the first few hours past 00z tonight. These
showers will decrease throughout the night as cooling sets in.
Overnight lows tonight will continue to be in the low to mid 70s
that they have been for the last few nights.

With an upper-level ridge firmly over the region, this warm trend
will continue into tomorrow and tomorrow night. More afternoon
storms will be accompanied by temperatures in the low 90s in most
areas, but parts of LA and AR will be flirting with the upper
90s. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Our upper-level ridge will begin to be chipped away by an inverted
trough coming in from the east beginning on Friday. This trough
will help bring back more widespread rain chances through the
weekend, especially for our south and eastern zones. This will be
in addition to any afternoon pop ups that develop from daytime
heating. Despite this, there will still be plenty of heat and
humidity. A Heat Advisory may be necessary depending on how much
mixing is expected in the near-term environment. These rain
chances will increase in both value and coverage as the work week
begins next week with some upper-level support. Guidance is also
suggesting that temperatures will be gradually increasing through
the long term period, which could be enough for us to issue some
more heat products. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through much of
tonight. However, an extensive cu field has developed over E
TX/Wrn LA/portions of extreme SW AR and SE OK, which should
persist through much of the afternoon as scattered convection
continues to develop over Deep E TX, and spread NNW across much of
E TX and Wrn LA. Have tempoed in thunder for the E TX terminals
this afternoon, with wind gusts of 30-40kts possible, brief MVFR
cigs, and locally reduced vsbys possible. The convection should
diminish by early evening, with some elevated cigs persisting
before thinning out later this evening. IFR/low MVFR cigs should
again develop by/after 12Z Thursday over E TX, before gradually
lifting/becoming VFR by late morning. Additional isolated to
scattered convection should again develop by the end of the 18Z
TAF period over portions of ECntrl TX, but may develop a bit
farther W than where it is developing attm. Elsewhere, a scattered
cu field should develop by mid to late morning, and linger through
the afternoon. SSE winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become light
SSE after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  76  96 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  75  95  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
DEQ  70  91  71  92 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  73  95  75  95 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  72  94  72  96 /  20  10   0  10
TYR  72  89  73  91 /  20  20   0   0
GGG  72  91  73  93 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  71  91  72  93 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...15