793
FXUS64 KSHV 292317
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

 - Low to very low rain chances are expected in most locations
   through the next week. Significant wetting rains are not
   expected.

 - The best rain chances, relatively speaking, should remain south
   of Interstate 20 as a tropical disturbance moves west along
   the Gulf Coast and eventually inland later in the week.

 - Heat index values should remain below advisory criteria for
   Sunday, but increasing dewpoints will mean higher heat index
   values. Heat headlines are likely for most of the area for much
   of the next week beginning on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A few isolated showers are trying to develop across Central
Louisiana in the vicinity of a diffuse frontal boundary, and
additional development may occur until diurnal instability begins
to diminish later this evening. Best chances for convection late
this afternoon and into this evening will be across East Texas and
Louisiana south of Interstate 20. This region is marked by a fairly
substantial cu field on visible satellite. Temperatures have
climbed into the mid to upper 90s in some portions of East Texas,
and some of these locations could be very close to 100 degrees F
before the day is over. However, dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s
are keeping heat index values just barely warmer than ambient air
temperatures. On the flip side, the large dewpoint depressions and
dry low-level atmosphere support a threat of gusty straight-line
winds form any stronger convection that develops today. Organized
severe weather is not anticipated.

The center of a broad upper level ridge currently over New Mexico
will move over Oklahoma and Arkansas on Sunday. Increased subsidence
due to the proximity of the ridge`s center should keep rain chances
extremely low on Sunday. Most of the model guidance was free of any
precip. The notable exception was the HRRR, which suggests widely
scattered and spotty coverage across much of the area. Given the
presence of the upper ridge, the lack of any vort max or surface
boundary to help initiate convection, current thinking is that the
HRRR is too aggressive. Therefore, this forecast sides with the
general model consensus of keep rain chances below mentionable
levels for Sunday. Sunday should also be our hottest day this week,
with most locations near or slightly over the century mark. On the
flip side, low dewpoints and relative humidity levels should keep
heat index values just below advisory criteria.

Unfortunately, heat headlines are likely to return during the
upcoming work week for most locations, maybe as early as Monday.
Daytime high temperatures may drop by a few degrees initially as
Gulf moisture gradually increases across the area. Therefore, the
drop in temperatures will be offset by the increase in humidity
bringing those heat index values above 105 degrees for much of the
area Monday and continuing into next weekend. In addition, daytime
high temperatures are expected to start climbing back into the upper
90s to near 100 degrees during the latter half of the work week.

A tropical disturbance currently near the Florida Panhandle will
gradually drift westward this week along the Gulf Coast. This wave
will give us some of the only rain chances will have this week.
However, even these low-end chances should remain confined Deep East
Texas eastward into Central Louisiana, mainly south of a line from
Jacksonville TX to Columbia LA. Significant wetting rains are not
anticipated. This will likely result in a worsening of drought
conditions.

/Nuttall/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across our airspace through the
next 24 hours. Scattered AC cloud cover should dissipate after
sunset with mostly clear skies forecast overnight. Elevated cu
field will reform once again shortly after sunrise through mid
morning and continue growing in coverage through peak heating on
Sunday. Look for mostly light winds overnight, becoming SE to SSW
during the day Sunday with speeds generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  97  71  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  98  67 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  71  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  69  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  99  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 100  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  98  75  99  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...13