225
FXUS64 KSHV 100007
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
707 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

 - Isolated rainfall will remain possible today, with much drier
   conditions heading into next week.

 - Temperatures will gradually increase heading into next week,
   with some of the warmest temperatures of the season possible.

 - Upcoming dry spell and continued hot temperatures will increase
   drought and fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Radar imagery is starting to show some isolated convection across
portions of the area, generally south of the I-30 corridor. I did
extend PoPs northward for this afternoon, but I am concerned I
might not have gone far enough, something that might need to be
adjusted here in a bit. Short range guidance still suggests all
convection will remain isolated in nature before dissipating by
this evening. There will remain some low chances for more showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly across the southern
portion of the forecast area, but after that, things really start
to dry out as high pressure takes more control of the region.

Upper-air pattern today continues to show our area between two
high pressure systems, one centered over the Four Corners region,
with the other centered just off the southeast CONUS. We will
remain between these two features on Monday, which is why we will
keep some precipitation chances in the forecast. However, as we
move into Tuesday, the eastern high will begin to retrograde back
towards the west and begin to merge with the western high pressure
system. By Wednesday, these two area of high pressure will have
become one, ultimately creating one large area of high pressure
aloft, generally centered over our area. Unfortunately, long term
models don`t show much movement in this feature well into next
weekend and even beyond. The result, increasing temperatures in an
already hot time of year, possibly some of the hottest
temperatures of the season, and limiting our isolated
thunderstorm potential to almost nothing.

I really hate to say it, but if today or tomorrow seem hot to you,
buckle up, because they are going to be the "coolest" days for the
next week. Monday will be similar to today, with afternoon highs
hanging out right around the mid 90s and heat index values in the
upper 90s to lower 100s. By Tuesday, add a few degrees onto what
we see on Monday and then add a few more degrees for Wednesday`s
high temperatures. The result, the entire area returning to the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees and heat index values returning to
dangerous levels, at or above 105 degrees. The bad news, this
trend is going to continue all the way into next weekend. Lastly,
the upcoming warming trend, along with the much drier forecast
with models this afternoon for all of next week, drought and fire
weather concerns will only increase. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR will prevail this cycle with light
and variable overnight and S/SW winds 5-10KT again on Monday.
Slight chance for convection mid to late aftn for KLFK and KMLU
with hot and dry conditions everywhere else. The upper heat ridge
will expand inland off the Gulf and E Atlantic and park overhead
for a long week with little if any rainfall. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  74  96  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
DEQ  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  73  96  75  97 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  73  93  74  95 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24