526
FXUS64 KSHV 051948
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
148 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 111 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

As expected...seeing some BINOVC a little earlier today compared
to this same time on Tuesday across mainly NE TX and beginning to
expand into extreme NW LA. Temperatures are responding
accordingly with 19z temps nearing 80 degrees across the mixed
sun/cloudy areas to upper 60s to lower 70s across the more OVC
locations. Where we still have cold air damming acrsos portions of
SE OK and SW AR, early afternoon temperatures are still in the
upper 50s. The shallow cold airmass which had oozed as far south
as the I-20 Corridor into NE TX and to near the AR/LA border has
since lifted well north of its early morning location and was now
north and west of the I-30 Corridor with this feature forecast to
continue lifting back to the north overnight. We continue to see
some spotty pockets of light rain but not seeing quite the
isentropic signal overnight across our region like we`ve been
seeing the last couple days so pulled pops back to slight chance
variety overnight only for our far northern zones. Did however
stick with persistence when it comes to the development of patchy
fog overnight through Thursday morning but not seeing the
widespread dense fog signal like we saw this morning in the higher
res progs either.

Any clouds and/or fog tomorrow should scatter out by late morning
into the afternoon hours similar to today with high temperatures
once again ranging in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

The above mentioned frontal boundary will begin to ooze southward
once again on Thursday but "should" remain mostly to our northwest
and north through the daytime hours on Thursday before pivoting
and/or backdooring into our far northwestern and northeastern zones
Thursday Night. Did shave temperatures tomorrow night slightly
along either flanks of the Ouachitas as a result and we may see a
little more of an uptick in isentropic forcing and thus, added
slight chance pops to all but our far southeast zones Thursday
Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Mostly zonal flow will continue into the early periods of the Long
Term Forecast and thus, while this flow will result in a lack of
upper level forcing, the ever present isentropic forcing will
remain present through at least Saturday and have therefore held
onto slight chance pops across most areas Friday into Saturday.
This would likely only amount to some patchy light rain and/or
drizzle, much in the way like we`ve experienced the last several
days in this well above normal temperature and moist airmass.

The above mentioned airmass will backdoor into much of SW AR on
Friday, perhaps coming as far south as the I-20 Corridor of NE LA
as well as the I-30 Corridor of NE TX before stalling Friday Night
and then returning back north during the day Saturday, much like
this boundary has done today.

A stronger cold front will infiltrate our northwest zones Saturday
Night and Sunday but progs have been more bullish in quickly
shifting this boundary southward through our entire area on Sunday
which is a change from earlier progs with this same airmass. This
seems plausible given the fact that our upper flow will transition
from near zonal flow Saturday to more southwesterly Sat Night into
Sunday and especially the early part of next week. All this to say
that it may be Sunday Night into Monday before this boundary can
push completely through our region. Held onto small pops for the
weekend with chance pops from north to south Sunday Night before
introducing likely pops in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe as we
introduce more in the way of upper level ascent from our upstream
trough to our west. This pattern will still be one of an
overrunning type pattern for the early and middle part of next
week which should rule out any probability of severe weather but
if the deterministic GFS can be believed and the upstream trough
comes out in chunks, then some heavy rainfall will be possible
next week until we see some kind of longwave trough passage just
beyond this 7-day forecast cycle.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

For the 05/18Z TAFs, VSBYs have noticeably improved south and west
but remain at sub-VFR distances north and east. CIGs likewise
remain largely in the IFR to MVFR range, with gradual improvement
and scattering out expected this afternoon, as BKN to SCT MVFR
dominate, continuing into the evening and overnight. Before dawn
tomorrow, another round of CIG/VIS reductions is expected, as
conditions deteriorate back to at least IFR conditions. Showers
across our eastern zones will diminish this afternoon, with quiet
wx to follow. Southerly winds will continue at sustained speeds of
5 to 10 kts, becoming more southwesterly tomorrow, with gusts of
up to 20 kts possible throughout.

SP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  80  63  80 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  65  81  62  81 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  62  76  56  73 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  66  80  62  78 /  10  10  20  20
ELD  63  80  60  78 /  10  10  20  20
TYR  65  78  64  80 /  10  10  20  20
GGG  64  79  62  81 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  65  80  63  81 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26