886
FXUS64 KSHV 171056
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - Widespread triple-digit high temperatures will continue through
   midweek, maintaining an elevated risk for heat-related
   illnesses.

 - Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from
   flash drought will support the threat of quick fire starts and
   rapid fire spreads.

 - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will
   exist on Monday across SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Upper-level heat ridge to remain centered across the ArkLaTex on
Monday allowing for high temperatures to again climb to around 100
degrees across most locations, with portions of east and northeast
Texas up to 103 degrees. As has been the case over the past few
days, a pocket of drier air across east and northeast Texas could
mix down during the afternoon bringing dewpoint values down into
the 60s, limiting heat index values to near 105 degrees across
these areas. However, the remainder of the ArkLaTex may not be so
lucky as dewpoint values in the 70s will drive heat index values
to 105 to 110 degrees, especially across northeast Louisiana and
south-central Arkansas. Based on these numbers, the ongoing Heat
Advisory will remain unchanged at this time.

A weak frontal boundary acrsos Oklahoma into Arkansas will shift
south overnight. With the front being oriented across the I-30
corridor on Monday, could see a few storms developing across these
areas during the time of peak heating.

Upper-ridge to build west on Tuesday signaling the beginning of a
pattern shift that will become a little more evident from
Wednesday onward. By Thursday, most of north Louisiana and
Arkansas will struggle to reach 100 degrees, which has not been
the case through this weekend and most likely into the middle of
the upcoming workweek. Additionally, an upper- level trough
swinging southeast along the northern periphery of the ridge could
produce enough instability and mixing to restrict afternoon high
temperatures across Arkansas and Louisiana to the mid 90s by
Saturday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace and those
conditions are expected to continue through this 24hr TAF period.
We are seeing some AC developing and/or spreading southward
towards the I-30 Corridor and expect this cloud cover to be in and
out during the day. A weak sfc boundary will drop southward out of
the Ouachitas of SE OK and SW AR and with the aid of afternoon
heating, we could see widely scattered TSTMS with this feature but
at this time, it appears that any convection should remain north
of our northern most TXK and ELD terminals through the late
evening hours.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials
and fire department personnel.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  81 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 102  80 103  80 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ 103  73 104  75 /  20  20  10   0
TXK 101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELD 102  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
TYR 103  79 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 104  78 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFK 101  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13