105
FXUS64 KSHV 160456
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Near triple digit temperatures will continue through at least
   early next week, posing an increased threat for heat-related
   illness.

 - Elevated fire weather conditions will continue to pose a risk
   for quick fire starts and rapid fire spreads.

 - Those spending time outdoors over the next week should follow
   all heat-related and fire weather precautions and safety tips
   (refer to weather.gov/shv for more details).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Upper-level ridge centered across the region to maintain near
triple digit temperatures areawide. A surface high across the
northern gulf will continue to provide a southerly fetch of gulf
moisture across the ArkLaTex maintaining afternoon heat index
values from 105 to 110 degrees through at least Tuesday. Thus, the
Heat Advisory that is currently in effect through Monday will be
extended into Tuesday.

An areawide Heat Advisory may not be necessary on Wednesday as the
upper-level ridge responsible for the heat builds westward. An
upper-trough is forecast to swing southeast into the mid-
Mississippi Valley bringing increased instability and mixing to
limit afternoon highs across Arkansas and north Louisiana to the
mid to upper 90s from Wednesday onward. However, portions of east
and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma will remain on
the eastern periphery of the ridge with near triple digit highs
continuing through Friday, likely prompting continued Heat
Advisories across these areas.

Otherwise, with instability increasing across portions of south
Arkansas and north Louisiana, a few showers and thunderstorms may
be possible on Thursday and Friday afternoons. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the 16/00z TAF update...No changes needed to be made for this
TAF period. VFR conditions will continue to prevail for all
terminals throughout. Left some mention of BR for KLFK towards
morning, but not expecting them to fall below VFR. Otherwise,
still seeing a few stronger gusts out there this evening, but we
will gradually calm for all areas during the overnight hours and
remain under 10 kts through the remainder of the period. /33/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Fire weather conditions will remain favorable for fire starts and
fire spreads into next week given the continued hot and dry
conditions. Min RH values will dip to between 30 and 40 percent
this afternoon with SW winds generally around 10kts. Sunday will
feature lower afternoon RH values area-wide, but especially
across East TX where more aggressive mixing is expected to lower
dewpoints into the 60s (closer to 70 or in the lower 70s elsewhere).
This could result in min RH values near 20 percent, with the
remainder of the area continuing to dip into the 30 percent range.
Winds will still remain out of the SW around 10kts.

CK

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials
and fire department personnel.

CK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 103  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  74 102  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  79 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  77 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33