994
FXUS64 KSHV 031846
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for isolated
   strong to severe storms, will spread east across the region
   through the day along a cold front, exiting the area tonight.

 - Cooler and drier air will spill east-southeast behind the
   front, with more seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday.

 - Another cold front will move through the region Friday,
   reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place by
   week`s end into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

This morning`s cold front is currently draped across the region
from Deep East TX to Southwest AR and slowly pushing eastward.
These storms have generally weakened over the past few hours from
their intensity overnight. This is only in terms of severe winds
and hail, as ample deep layer shear has allowed for several
embedded spots of developing rotation that are being monitored. In
addition to the wind and tornado threat, heavy rainfall will
raise a concern for areas of flash and urban flooding this
afternoon. PWAT values up to an exceeding 2 inches will be enough
to produce showers with high rain rates. In addition, the showers
along this cold front are moving northeast along the bulk shear
vector. This movement combined with a relatively slow forward
progression of the cold front raises concern with training
showers. There may still be reintensification of the shower and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon once peak daytime heating
gets going, although the exact extent is still uncertain due to
the lingering cloud cover.

Current guidance still has showers lingering in our southeastern
zones until around midnight tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures,
in the low to mid 70s, should come on the coattails of the cold
front for Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front will push
through late Thursday/Friday that will reinforce the cold and dry
airmass, keeping mid to upper 60s into the weekend. Any rain
chances associated with this front in previous forecasts has been
pushed south of our area this run. However, some chances to our
northwest from the main trough axis could persist and clip our
northwesternmost zones.

Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected to persist
into the weekend. Long-range models are struggling to resolve
another upper- level trough moving through the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday but this system is still likely to be
dry. If current RH predictions are accurate that far out, fire
weather may become the primary concern again early next week.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For the 03/18z TAF period...A mix bag of flight conditions across
the region as a cold front and line of storms continue to move
through the TAF sites. Some strong to severe storms are possible. Eventually,
VFR conditions and some scattered high clouds will move into the
region, with post frontal NW winds. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today through this evening across the
region, for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  53  70  49 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  81  54  73  47 / 100  80   0   0
DEQ  74  46  71  41 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  72  50  68  45 / 100   0   0   0
ELD  75  47  74  42 / 100  10   0   0
TYR  73  51  70  49 /  90   0   0   0
GGG  75  50  71  46 / 100   0   0   0
LFK  76  50  75  46 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20