640
FXUS64 KSHV 160553
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
   rest of the week, before cooler temperatures move in on Sunday

 - There remains a chance for severe thunderstorms to develop on
   Saturday, although timing and exact location are still in
   question

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Upper-air analysis this evening continues to highlight a stubborn
ridge overhead, the same one that has been hogging the spotlight
and keeping our weather unseasonably warm and bone-dry. The good
news, models are hinting that the ridge is ready to pack its bags
and slide southeast as we move into Friday. Meanwhile, a longwave
trough will be digging into the Southwest U.S., nudging our region
into southwest flow by Friday afternoon. That means Gulf moisture
is on the comeback tour, bringing higher dew points and even the
chance for a few afternoon pop-up showers or storms across our far
southwest zones. Most of this activity should call it a night
shortly after sunset.

At the surface, a lee trough will spin up later today just east of
the Rockies and track northeast into the northern Plains by
Friday. Riding along with it, a developing cold front will push
southward through the Plains, then curve southwest into the Texas
Panhandle. By Saturday morning, that front should be knocking on
our doorstep- and it`ll bring some company in the form of showers
and thunderstorms.

As moisture surges in from the Gulf and the front approaches, the
stage will be set for a few strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Current
outlooks keep at least the northern half of our area under a
Slight Risk for severe weather. However, timing remains a bit
fuzzy as models have some slight disagreement on how fast the
front will move or whether the main event arrives during the late
afternoon or overnight hours. Expect more clarity as we get
closer.

Temperature-wise, the warmth isn`t done just yet. Today and Friday
will stay above normal, with highs in the mid-80s north of I-30
and upper-80s elsewhere. Saturday may flirt with the lower 90s
ahead of the approaching front before cooler, more "fall-like" air
settles in on Sunday, dropping highs into the mid-70s to mid-80s.
Don`t get too cozy though, temperatures will bump back a bit on
Monday before another cold front swings through and lowers
temperatures again heading into the middle of the week. It`s
roller coaster season! /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the 16/06z TAF period...VFR conditions will prevail through
the period. But, cirrus will eventually spread into the region by
mid-morning, with a few afternoon CU across East Texas.
Eventually, cirrus will become BKN to OVC by the end of the TAF
period. Expect winds to range from Light E to Lght/Vrb, to
eventually SE between 5-10 mph during the period. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  63  91  65  91 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  61  86  66  87 /  10   0   0  40
TXK  65  89  69  90 /   0   0   0  30
ELD  61  88  65  87 /   0   0   0  30
TYR  64  87  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
GGG  63  88  67  90 /   0   0   0  30
LFK  64  89  68  91 /   0  20   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...20