924
FXUS64 KSHV 191030
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
530 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - The oppressive heat wave will continue through the entire
   forecast period, with daytime temperatures reaching/exceeding
   the century mark each day, with limited relief during the
   overnight hours.

 - While isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be possible
   generally along/north of I-20 Thursday near and ahead of a weak
   surface front that will drift south into Southeast Oklahoma and
   Southwest Arkansas, mostly dry conditions will continue through
   the period.

 - An increased fire weather threat will continue through the
   foreseeable future given the low afternoon RH`s and very dry
   fuels in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicated a weak sfc trough that
extends from Wrn and Srn AR into extreme NE LA, where isolated
convection did manage to develop late Tuesday afternoon/evening,
and recently diminished in the last couple of hours. Meanwhile,
stubborn upper ridging remains anchored from the Desert SW/Four
Corners Region into the Lower MS Valley, but will begin to amplify
by Thursday before gradually beginning to expand back E into the
Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley this weekend. Despite the strongest
subsidence near the ridge center remaining W of the region, very
warm 4" soil temps of 88 degrees as of 1230 am this morning will
not allow for much sfc cooling overnight, resulting in a head
start to daytime heating with afternoon temps today again
reaching/exceeding the century mark areawide. Max heat indices
Tuesday afternoon ranged from 105-110 degrees across most areas,
with a few locales briefly exceeding 110 degrees over McCurtain
County OK and portions of N LA, with similar temps/extent of
mixing expected again yielding comparable heat indices areawide.
The aforementioned weak sfc trough over Wrn and Srn AR is progged
to begin lifting back N later this morning before washing out,
with no sfc trigger present to warrant the need for any isolated
afternoon pops. However, the short term progs continue to hint at
a weak upper trough that will traverse the Midwest into the Mid MS
Valley Thursday, which should help another weak sfc trough to be
reinforced S into Ern OK/Wrn AR by afternoon, and may focus the
potential for isolated afternoon/evening convection over SE OK/SW
AR, which may drift as far S as the I-20 corridor before
diminishing.

Will have to wait and see as to the progress of this weak sfc
trough, and whether or not compressional heating can extend
farther S into extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, and may necessitate the
need of an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning. However,
confidence is high enough though that the Heat Advisory will be
needed areawide Thursday, and thus have extended it through 01Z
Friday. Confidence remains low though as to the bndry position
over the region Friday, and whether or not it will be enough and
whether weak NW flow aloft will be sufficient enough to initiate
isolated convection over portions of E TX/N LA. For now, will
keep a dry forecast going and add pops once the progs are in
better agreement and the various CAMs are available. There are
some indications though that slightly drier air mixing S may
result in lower min RH`s, even in the presence of triple digit
heat. This may result in slightly lower heat indices mainly over
portions of SE OK/SW AR, but still dangerous within the triple
digit temps.

The various medium range progs suggest that the amplified upper
ridging will begin building back E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS
Valley for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, thus
maintaining the triple digit temps and oppressive heat and dry
conditions over the region through the remainder of the extended
period. An increased fire weather threat will also persist over
the entire forecast period as well, given the very dry/loaded
fuels that have since dried in wake of the June/early July rains,
as well as the low afternoon RH`s.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through this TAF period over the
next 24 hours. IR Imagery early this morning is showing mostly
thin cirrus and some 15kft AC across our airspace. Also most
noteworthy is some 15hdft moisture across SE TX that will be
moving north and east in the vicinity of the LFK terminal through
maybe 14-15z or so. Do not think this will pose an MVFR ceiling
however. Otherwise, a growing AC field near 8kft will likely
develop by early afternoon before dissipating later this evening.
Look for mostly S to SW winds with speeds generally near 10kts
through the TAF period.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  80 104  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLU 102  78 102  77 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ 105  75 103  72 /  10   0  20  20
TXK 103  79 103  77 /  10   0  20  20
ELD 103  77 102  75 /  10  10  20  20
TYR 104  79 105  79 /   0   0  10  20
GGG 105  79 105  79 /   0   0  10  20
LFK 100  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13