736
FXUS64 KSJT 290626
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
126 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect from late tonight through late Thursday
  night.

- High chances (70%-95%) for rain from Wednesday through Friday,
  along with cooler temperatures by the second half of this week.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in significant flooding.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and early this evening across much of the area this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be dangerous
lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures will be above normal for
this time of year, highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Long and medium range models continue to show a heavy rain and
significant flash flooding event Tuesday night through Thursday of
this week. A strengthening low pressure system moving east across
New Mexico and into western and northern Texas may combine with the
remnants of Hurricane Polo. Both of these systems combined with a
frontal boundary across our area will provide more than enough
support for widespread rain and thunderstorm activity. Abundant
moisture to include precipitable water values in the 1.9" to 2.5"
range will support efficient rain production with this activity.
Model depictions continue to show multiple rounds of precipitation
to include some degree of thunderstorm training occurring. The
biggest source of uncertainty is where exactly the bands of heavy
rainfall will setup at and how quickly they will be moving. With
respect to rainfall totals, widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches are depicted along with locally heavier pockets of 7+
inches. This type of activity will pose a Moderate Risk (40-70%
chance) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding for
Tuesday night through Thursday. As a result, a Flood Watch has
been issued from late tonight through late Thursday night.

Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a good
portion of our area in a Slight Risk for seeing severe weather on
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as well. Damaging winds and large
hail are the main concerns, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out completely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Stratus will result in MVFR ceilings at the southern 3 sites
beginning between 11Z and 12Z. Expect VFR conditions to return to
all sites by mid to late morning. South to southeast winds will
increase to 12 to 15 knots, with higher gusts, by mid to late
morning and continue through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  74  91  69 /   0  30  80  90
San Angelo  94  71  93  65 /   0  40  70 100
Junction    93  70  93  67 /   0  10  40  90
Brownwood   94  71  93  68 /   0  10  40 100
Sweetwater  93  73  90  67 /   0  40  80  80
Ozona       91  70  90  65 /   0  50  60 100
Brady       92  70  91  67 /   0  10  40  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for
Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-
Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Daniels