220
FXUS64 KSJT 191746
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1146 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in Effect for this evening through Thursday Night.

- Rain chances begin today, peaking Thursday, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a medium to high chance (70%-90%) of at least 1 inch of
  rainfall across much of West Central Texas, with a medium
  chance (50%-60%) of at least 2 inches of rain for areas
  southeast of a Brownwood to Brady to Sonora line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The upper-level low across the southwestern US will slowly track
southeastward, ejecting a series if upper-level disturbances ahead
of it and across West Central Texas this afternoon and into
Thursday. This will continue the influx of low-level moisture
into the area from the south to southwest, and will aide in the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today and into Thursday. Best chances for rain will develop in the
afternoon hours today and persist through Thursday as as the first
in a series of embedded disturbances ahead of the low/trough track
into the area. A few isolated strong storms will be possible with
a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds later this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

A Marginal to Slight risk for excessive rainfall remains over
much of the area, with the slight risk area covering mainly our
southern most counties along the I-10 corridor. Flooding could be
possible with the increased potential for heavy rainfall across
the area, so the Flood watch will remain in effect for this
evening through Thursday night.

High temperatures Wednesday will be slightly cooler and closer to
seasonal normals for this time of year, ranging in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

By Thursday morning, models have come into good agreement with a
negatively tilted parent low centered near western Arizona. A
potent shortwave rotating around the parent low will move over
west Texas during the day. Ahead of this upper level feature,
persistent south/southeasterly low level flow will increase
moisture across the entire west central Texas region. Surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, as well as moisture in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere will lead to precipitable water
values hovering around the 1.5 inch range for areas southeast of a
Brownwood to Ozona line, and greater than an inch for the entire
area. High resolution CAMs, as well as lower resolution global
models, continue to concentrate the greatest rainfall in areas
that are already covered in a Flash Flood Watch, so there`s no
need to make changes there. Other than the flash flood threat,
severe weather is not expected to be a concern with cooler
temperatures and lower instability by Thursday.

Expect the bulk of the heavy rain to end to end by the evening
hours Thursday, with nearly all of the rain except for a few light
showers exiting the area by around Midnight Thursday.

Friday into Saturday will be drier with 20% or less chances for
precipitation. Temperatures will also be closer to normal from
Thursday through Saturday as well.

For the next system, medium range models continue to converge
around a solution showing a strong low moving into central New
Mexico by Sunday and then into the southern plains by Tuesday.
This will bring another good chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Sunday into Monday night. Moisture is expected to recover
rather efficiently from the storms over the next few days, so
heavy rainfall and flooding will again be possible, along with
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon will rapidly deteriorate this
evening and especially overnight into Thursday morning as showers
and storms become widespread across the area. Using the CAMs as a
first guess forecast on the timing of the start, and then using
prevailing storms for late tonight through Thursday morning. Some
possibility of more isolated activity sooner than projected but
given the uncertainty in timing and whether its near a terminal
location, will leave out for now. Will see MVFR for much of
tonight into Thursday, with pockets of both IFR and VFR at times.
Wind speeds will remain at mainly southerly at about 10 knots but
will vary around the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     80  64  71  52 /  50  70  90  60
San Angelo  79  59  70  49 /  50  80  90  60
Junction    81  59  72  53 /  40  80  90  70
Brownwood   82  61  71  53 /  50  80 100  80
Sweetwater  77  63  70  50 /  50  80  90  40
Ozona       76  60  71  50 /  40  80  90  40
Brady       80  62  68  55 /  50  80  90  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through late Thursday
night for Brown-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07