275
FXUS64 KSJT 301922
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night.

- High chances (70%-100%) for rain this afternoon through Friday,
  along with cooler temperatures by the end of the week. Heavy
  rainfall is the main concern with this event and could result
  in significant flooding.

- Below normal temperatures expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A closed mid/upper low currently over New Mexico, will lift
northeast and weaken as it tracks into Kansas by tomorrow.
Abundant moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo
will reside over the area tonight, ahead of the approaching system.
In addition, a Pacific front will move in from the west later
this evening. This will set the stage for widespread shower and
thunderstorm development across the area, primarily from this
evening into Thursday. Latest model guidance shows isolated
to scattered showers and storms developing by late afternoon and
early evening, with a much more organized line of storms materializing
to our west by mid evening. This line will then track east across
the area overnight.

There is a threat of both heavy rainfall and severe storms as we
head into the evening and overnight hours. The greater threat will
be heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding, some of which
may be significant. Precipitable water values will exceed 2.0
inches across much of the area into early Thursday and will support
heavy rainfall, with an increasing threat for flooding. A Moderate
Risk (40-70%) for excessive rainfall remains over the area into
Thursday, with widespread rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches
likely. However, locally higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches
will be possible, and even some isolated amounts of 8+ inches is
not out of the realm of possibility. As a result, a Flood Watch
remains in effect across the entire area. In addition to the
flooding threat, a few severe storms are possible through
tonight. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail to quarter
size are the main hazards, although an isolated tornado is also
possible. Showers and storms will linger across eastern portions
of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country into mid morning
Thursday, with the bulk of the heavy rain moving east of the area
by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Much cooler temperatures will follow the departing system this
Friday into early next week. A weakness aloft will remain over
the area however, which will result in additional rain chances,
especially for areas east of a Abilene to Sonora line. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be light, generally 1/4 inch or less
through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions expected by early next
week, with low rain chances returning to the area by the middle
of next week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s Friday through
Sunday, warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by early next
week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Patchy low clouds (with MVFR ceilings) remain over eastern and
southeastern parts of our area at midday/early afternoon,
but ceilings should be above 3000ft by 19Z. Gusty south winds
early this afternoon will decrease by early this evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening. This brings a potential for brief reductions
in visibility/ceilings in locally heavy rain accompanying the
convection. Strong, gusty winds and hail are also possible. Will
monitor radar and mesoscale trends and update TAFs as needed for
this convection. For the late evening and overnight hours, an
organized and more extensive band of thunderstorms is expected to
develop and gradually move across the area. Have included Tempo
groups with the expected timing at our TAF sites. Strong, gusty
winds are possible. Expect reductions in ceiling and sharp
reductions in visibility in the heavy rainfall accompanying the
overnight convection. Conditions will improve to VFR area wide,
from west to east, as the storms move out of the area going into
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  86  65  78 /  90  10  10  60
San Angelo  65  87  63  79 /  90  20  10  50
Junction    67  83  64  79 /  90  70  40  70
Brownwood   67  83  65  79 / 100  60  30  70
Sweetwater  66  87  63  76 /  60   0  10  50
Ozona       65  85  62  79 / 100  20   0  20
Brady       67  82  64  77 /  90  70  40  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19