077
FXUS64 KSJT 230409
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1009 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms and the potential for heavy
  rainfall is expected from Sunday through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Highs this afternoon will be near seasonal normals, in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Fairly light winds are also forecast, resulting in a
pleasant Saturday afternoon. By this evening, an upper level low
across northern Mexico will track northeast into Arizona. Although
an isolated shower is possible after midnight, mostly dry conditions
are forecast overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

The aforementioned upper level low is forecast to track toward the
Four Corners region by afternoon. Ahead of this system, surface
moisture is forecast to quickly increase across the forecast area
with dewpoints climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Scattered to
numerous showers are forecast to develop by mid to late morning,
with the highest rain chances across the northern half of the area.
Although a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon, the higher threat for severe weather will occur
during the evening and overnight hours. Highs on Sunday will be in
the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The previously mentioned low pressure system will continue moving
across the region on Sunday night. As it continues to move east, a
frontal boundary will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm
development. Chances are high (80-90%) that we will see
thunderstorms Sunday night. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed most of our area in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather
through Monday morning. Large hail (up to 1" diameter) will be the
main hazard with any severe thunderstorms that do develop. Any
cells that become severe should be isolated and remain limited in
duration (short lived). Otherwise, we will also have to contend
with potentially heavy rainfall.  Areas across the Concho Valley
and Big Country have a high (75-85%) chance for seeing at least 1"
of rainfall. This will leave us with a Slight Risk (15 to 40%
chance) of seeing excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding on
Sunday night and Monday morning. Areas that have already seen
previous rainfall will be most at risk of seeing flood related
concerns. Please make sure to have multiple ways to receive any
warnings that may be issued during this time frame.

Otherwise, another strong cold front may move through on Wednesday
morning. This could leave high temperatures in the 50s for
Wednesday afternoon. Some low lying areas may be around 30-33
degrees Thanksgiving morning. For Thanksgiving Day, dry conditions
with highs in the low to mid 60s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ceilings will gradually lower through the next 24 hours, with
conditions dropping from VFR to MVFR and eventually IFR. The timing
of these transitions varies between TAF sites, with KSOA dropping
first and KABI and KBBD dropping last. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop as early as late this morning. However,
higher coverage storms are expected late Sunday afternoon and
overnight into Monday morning. Best chance for storms Sunday evening
will be at KABI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     47  67  57  73 /   0  80  90  40
San Angelo  46  68  56  73 /  10  70  90  40
Junction    48  71  57  74 /  10  30  50  70
Brownwood   44  68  56  73 /   0  60  90  80
Sweetwater  49  65  56  72 /   0  80  80  20
Ozona       51  66  58  72 /  10  60  80  30
Brady       47  66  58  71 /  10  50  80  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...AP