157
FXUS64 KSJT 161112
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected in the first half of
  this week, but could trend a few degrees lower in the latter
  part of the week.

- Mainly a dry forecast first half of the week, with some low rain
  chances in the second half.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Persistent upper-level high pressure will continue to keep hot and
dry conditions across the area today, with above normal high
temperatures reaching into the mid 90s to near 101 degrees this
afternoon. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
generally from 10 to 15 mph with a few localized gusts to 20 mph
possible. Overnight lows tonight and expected to fall into the 70s
tonight, with some areas across the Big Country in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The upper level ridge that has been parked over New Mexico and far
west Texas will start to shift westward and recenter over the Baja
peninsula.  Despite this change in heights, the 850mb thermal ridge
will be at its peak on Tuesday while centered over the Texas/New
Mexico border.  There is a medium to high chance (40-90%) of
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees across the Big Country and
western Concho Valley Tuesday afternoon.  In addition, weak surface
troughing will develop over the Panhandle which will increase south
winds during the afternoon to 15-25 MPH.

For Wednesday and Thursday a few shortwave troughs should pass
through the central Plains and cause some weak disturbances in the
mid-level flow. As a result of these features, slightly cooler
temperatures can be expected both days.  There will also be a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday night, mainly over
the Big Country. For the weekend, model consensus shows the upper
ridge shifting back over the southern Plains.  Earlier runs showed a
stronger inverted trough moving out of the gulf into south Texas on
Friday.  While models are still hinting at this, rain chances have
backed off and only a slight increase in cloud cover is anticipated
which should help to keep temperatures below 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours
across all terminals. There is a small chance at MVFR ceilings
redeveloping over KBBD this morning between 12z and 15Z, then lift
back to VFR ceilings. South to southeasterly winds will prevail
through tonight, ranging from 8 to 12 knots with some localized
gusts to 20 knots around KABI and KSJT today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  98  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    96  72  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  99  76 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP