916
FXUS64 KSJT 270731
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
231 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  next week.

- Low to medium (15 to 45%) rain chances this afternoon and
  evening.


- Medium to high (50-80%) chance for rain for the middle of next
  week, with cooler temperatures for the second half of next week
  as well.

- Heavy rainfall is the main concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering across the Concho
Valley and Heartland early this morning, as an outflow boundary
continues to track southward. Expect a gradual decrease in activity
over the next couple of hours.

An upper level ridge will be centered across northern Mexico today,
with West Central Texas on the northern periphery of the ridge. This
will result high temperatures today around 10 degrees above seasonal
normals. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
mainly across the southern half of the area. The main concern with
any storms that develop will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Main forecast concern continues to be the upper trough and Polo
remnants moving into the Southern Plains/Rockies for mid week.
General idea hasn`t changes, with the remnants of Polo moving
into Mexico and towards New Mexico sometime Tuesday Night. A
deeper upper trough will be moving into Arizona at that time,
picking up the Polo moisture and wrapping it into the upper
system. This upper system will drift across the Panhandle and
towards Kansas, but it may be well into Thursday or early Friday
before that happens.

Models have their differences with regards to the details however,
with the GFS a little farther east and the ECMWF and Canadian a
little farther west with the position of the upper low. This has
a major impact for West Central Texas with regards to a possible
dry slot moving into the area that the GFS shows, cutting precip
off a lot faster than many of the other global models and pushing
much of the rain into Central Texas. This split in the operational
models shows up in the ensembles as well, with some showing heavy
rain across West Central Texas and others bringing the dry slot
through and shifting the heavy rain east. With this in mind, will
stick closer to the model blends for now. Thus will go with a
little wetter forecast than the operational GFS shows and closer
to the blends. There are also differences with regards to timing
of a few shortwaves as well, which has an impact on timing of any
rounds of convection.

Now...possible impacts. GFS has the dry slot and minimizes heavy
rainfall potential. However, if the wetter ensembles are correct,
moisture will remain high and the atmosphere primed. Precipitable
water values would be well above 2 inches across the area, which
would be very high for this late in the summer/early fall. In some
places this may be near 99% of historical values so heavy
rainfall potential is a real concern. Looking at some of the
statistical-based info available, mean rainfall totals off the
LREF across West Central Texas are generally in the 2-3 inch
range, ranging from a 10% lower case of around 1/2 inch to a 90%
of 3-4 inches. WPC has already placed part of the area in the
slight risk for Excessive Rainfall, and as the details become a
little more dialed in, would not surprise me if this gets
expanded.

Finally, as the upper low finally shifts northeast of the area, a
stronger cold front makes its way through the area. After a
continuation of well above normal highs through Tuesday, highs by
Thursday and Friday could stay in the 70s in some area, or cooler
if clouds and rain persist. Morning lows may well fall into the
50s in some locations by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Expect VFR conditions to generally prevail through the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening, mainly near our southern 3 sites.
Confidence is too low to include a mention of thunder at this
time. Light winds will become southwest and increase to 8 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, by mid morning. Expect winds to
gradually decrease by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  73  97  75 /  10   0  20   0
San Angelo  98  70  96  71 /  10   0  20  10
Junction    97  69  95  68 /  30  40  10   0
Brownwood   97  69  96  71 /  30  10  10   0
Sweetwater  98  71  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Ozona       95  69  94  70 /  10  20   0   0
Brady       95  69  94  70 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Daniels