467
FXUS64 KSJT 211111
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and
  Concho Valley areas this afternoon.

- Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through at least the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Continued hot and dry weather is expected today and tonight.
Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out in
our eastern counties. However, with the coverage expected to be
extremely limited, will leave the forecast dry for now. The main
concern will be the continued heat across the area. Highs are
expected to range from the upper 90s in our southwestern counties,
to as hot as 107 degrees across parts of the Big Country,
Heartland, and Concho Valley areas. Due to the expansion of very
hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big
Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley areas this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A large upper level high will be centered over the border of
northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle on Saturday. Our
area will be on the southeast side of this high with weak north to
northeasterly flow aloft. Some of the models (including CAMs)
continue to suggest isolated to widely scattered convection
potentially affecting the area mostly east of a Clyde to Junction
line late Saturday afternoon and evening. This may be aided by a
weak embedded disturbance aloft moving around the eastern and
southeastern periphery of this high. Similar to the previous
forecast package, adding 10% PoPs across some of our eastern and
southeastern counties for late Saturday afternoon and evening. If
thunderstorms occur, the environment will be supportive of localized
strong, gusty winds given the large dewpoint depressions and
inverted V signatures on model soundings. Lightning would be a
hazard as well. Temperatures will be hot on Saturday and highs with
highs expected to reach 105 in much of the Concho Valley into the
Heartland area, and 104 to 107 across the Big Country.

Sunday through Thursday will be hot for our area with daily highs 8-
12 degrees above normal. The upper high will be centered over the
New Mexico/Texas border Sunday, and then will migrate slowly west to
the Arizona/New Mexico border by Wednesday and Thursday. This will
be our dominant feature. On two or three days next week, the daily
record highs may be reached at Abilene and San Angelo. If the
aforementioned high can move far enough west, it may allow for the
potential of a few showers and thunderstorms in our area Wednesday
night and Thursday. Some of the medium range models hint at this
possibility. This possibility looks remote at this time, however,
and confidence is too low to include a mentionable PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours, with south to
southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    104  79 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 104  75 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   102  73 102  75 /   0   0  20  20
Brownwood  104  75 105  75 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 105  77 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       98  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady      102  74 103  75 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-
McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20