155
FXUS64 KSJT 211154
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
654 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, along
  with brief gusty winds.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances Tuesday. Slightly cooler but
  still above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with hotter and well-
  above normal temperatures again by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

One more day of temperatures in the mid and upper 90s today,
before slightly cooler temperatures arrive on Tuesday. West
Central Texas will remain under weak ridging aloft today.
However, a weak cold front will approach from the north today
and will sag southward into the Big Country and northern Concho
Valley this afternoon and early evening. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and behind this boundary by late
afternoon and persist into the evening hours. Will maintain
20-40% rain chances this afternoon and evening, with low rain
chances for the overnight hours. While severe weather is not
expected, the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. In
addition, given high PWAT`s (precipitable water), heavy rainfall
is also possible, which may result in some minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A weak upper level ridge will be over south-central and southeast
Texas Tuesday. With lower heights over our area and moist air,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday. The ridge will strengthen some over southeast Texas
Wednesday and Thursday, and then shift back to the west over Deep
South Texas by next weekend. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be slightly cooler but still above normal (highs mostly in
the lower 90s). Expect a trend toward hotter temperatures again by
the weekend with highs in the lower and mid 90s. While the
possibility of an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, overall rain chances dwindle for our area in the mid-to-late
week time frame and into the weekend. Medium range models have
increased differences in the upper level pattern and surface
features Sunday into the first part of next week and this has
implications on rain chances and temperatures. For this part of
the forecast, relying more on the model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Predominantly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. Still looking at
the potential for some showers and thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon into the evening hours, as a weak front moves in
from the north. At this time, the highest confidence for
convection is at KABI and KSJT and will include PROB30 groups at
both terminals. Expect gusty winds and some reductions to
visibility associated with convection. Otherwise light winds
expected the next 24 hours, with a wind shift to the north at
KABI and KSJT this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  70  91  70 /  30  30  40  10
San Angelo  96  68  91  67 /  30  30  40  10
Junction    95  68  93  67 /  30  20  30  10
Brownwood   96  68  92  69 /  20  20  30  10
Sweetwater  96  69  89  69 /  30  40  40  20
Ozona       93  68  89  67 /  20  40  40  20
Brady       93  67  90  67 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24